Seattle Mariners’ Potential Wild Card Scenarios

Aug 19, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) signs autographs for fans during pre game warm ups before a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

“If the Mariners were to make the playoffs, which potential Wild Card opponent would give them the best chance of advancing to the ALDS?”

For most of the season, this question had an obvious answer. Given the choice between the runaway freight train from Oakland and an Angels team who, despite comfortably holding the top Wild Card spot, still looked as likely to fold as chase down the A’s, Los Angeles looked infinitely more vulnerable simply because finding holes in the A’s roster seemed an impossible task.

This was reinforced by Oakland’s additions of Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester, which solidified the “ace” role that is so often looked at as decisive in win-or-go-home situations.

But an offensive drought from the O.co tenants coupled with a 8-1 surge from L.A. has flipped the script: the Angels now own the top position in the AL West, while Oakland sits 5.5 games up on second-place Detroit in the Wild Card.

Whether the new division leaders can sustain this run of form, especially now that Garrett Richards is done for the year, remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain: the West is most certainly a two or even three team race, if the M’s can rattle off a long winning streak.

But if we make the assumption that Seattle ends up with the second Wild Card slot (though it is of course anything but certain) and that each team is able to throw its ace in the one-game playoff, which division foe would be the best road draw for the M’s?

Aug 12, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Jon Lester (31) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Mariners @ Athletics

Probable Starters: Felix Hernandez vs. Jon Lester

Pitching

On paper, this matchup is to die for, and especially at a hitter’s graveyard, one or two runs could easily win the game.

Felix’s dominance against Oakland and at the O.co Coliseum (9-2, 2.72 ERA) is well-documented. That in addition to his Cy Young caliber season should instill fear into anyone.

Lester, on the other hand has a 3.99 ERA in 10 starts against the Mariners, but in 8 games in Oakland, he is much better (3-3, 3.00 ERA). He also has held Robinson Cano, the only Mariners hitter he has faced at least 20 times, to a .246/.293/.319 slash line.

If the game was at Safeco, where Lester has an ERA near 5.00, Felix would have an enormous advantage. As it is, I give him and the M’s, who also have the better bullpen, a slight edge.

Offense

The A’s have suffered mightily in the outfield since Yoenis Cespedes left for Boston, but not all of their troubles are necessarily attributable to the Cuban slugger. Craig Gentry, the team’s offseason addition from Texas, has been out since July 27.

While the right-handed outfielder provides no power whatsoever, his average (.264 overall, .273 against lefties) should, once he is fully healthy and re-acclimated, help a lineup that had to re-acquire Sam Fuld at the Deadline.

However, the subtraction of Cespedes puts most of the offensive production squarely on the shoulders of Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss, neither of whom have followed spectacular First Halves with any type of success.

If both lynchpins continue to struggle the rest of the way, the gap between the Swingin’ A’s and the anemic M’s will have closed significantly, but short of a complete team meltdown, the offensive advantage still lies squarely with the home team.

Intangibles

Every week, these last two notwithstanding, for the past couple years, it seems that the A’s at least once come back from some absurd deficit to win and leave the opposition devastated.

This was more pronounced in 2012 and 2013, but they still exude a confidence that no lead is safe, and Felix nearly had it happen to him on April 5 at the Coliseum, when he tried to gag up a 3-0 lead in the ninth. The bullpen held on for the 3-1 win, leaving the tying run at the plate, but while watching I, along with most M’s fans, half-expected the game to end with someone in yellow getting mobbed at home plate.

I personally do not trust any team, including Seattle to hang on to any win against the A’s until the final out has been recorded, and though the A’s seem to have lost that “it” factor recently, there is no reason to believe they cannot get it back by October.

Aug 17, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) runs to third base during the eighth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Texas won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Verdict

The Mariners will likely not be favored in either game, being the road team competing against better opposition. That said, if the M’s can put one of their two aces on the mound, they will have at least a sporting chance in a one-game sample.

While I am tempted to say that Oakland’s latest stretch makes them a very surmountable foe, that feels like an overreaction, and their aforementioned intangibles frighten me to no end.

This makes the Angels the favorite, and the Garrett Richards injury seals it. Unless L.A. pulls off a miracle by acquiring a replacement top-of-the-line starter in the next week (MLB Network analysts speculated Thursday night that Johnny Cueto might become available as the Reds far farther out of contention), the disparity in pitching leads me to believe that should the M’s beat out Detroit/Kansas City, New York, and Toronto for a postseason berth, they should hope to see red, not green and yellow, at the beginning of October.