Mariners Trade Deadline: An Analytical Look at Seattle’s Trade Options

Jul 21, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; The Seattle Mariners celebrate after defeating the New York Mets at Safeco Field. Seattle defeated New York 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The trade deadline is just around the corner. The Mariners have been the name dropped most often when it comes to teams looking for upgrades ahead of a playoff race.

They have been connected with almost every offensive player thought to be available, and everyone has their opinion on which of those players would best aid the M’s down the stretch.

I am not here to tell you who you should and shouldn’t want. I have done that often enough on Twitter.

We all have opinions, and while I may feel my own are more likely to present the team with the most upgrades than others, it does not make them fact.

But in making my “decisions” I try to rely solely, or mostly, on the facts, and not my biases. I will look beyond a player being right-handed, or having perceived power, or wanting to be here. I believe this team needs value, and upgrades, where ever they can get them.

So the following will be a more statistical look at the options the Mariners have in the next couple days leading up to the deadline, followed up at the end by what I would personally like to see.

Jul 26, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Ben Zobrist (18) reacts after he hit a solo home run during the seventh inning against the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Ben Zobrist, UTI, Tampa Bay Rays

This one is becoming less and less likely all the time, as the Rays are 7-1 follwing the All-Star break, and are seemingly right in the race with the Mariners, rather than prepared to trade with them.

But there is still a chance the Rays feel that it is either unlikely that they contend, or that at 51-54, fourth place in the East, they are better off getting a haul for Zobrist (and/or David Price) rather than risking missing the playoffs, and getting less in return over the winter.

But let’s assume for a minute that the Rays are willing to sell. In such a case, Zobrist would be a great fit for this Mariners team.

Not only can he play pretty much anywhere on the field, he is a well above average hitter, and is probably underrated because he doesn’t have a great average or power.

His line to this point is .268/.358/.409, with a 122 wRC+. His ability to take a walk and work counts (12.7% BB rate) gives him an on base percentage that would look great at the top of the order, especially compared to the abysmal production from James Jones and Endy Chavez.

In addition, he could play both first base and outfield, which are the two biggest holes in the current lineup.

The good offense and flexibility on defense have made him worth 3.2 fWAR to this point, on pace for 5 or more over the season. That is right in line with Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager.

The cost is unclear, but a package centered around Nick Franklin seems fair for both sides.

Jul 25, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Marlon Byrd (3) hits a double during the seventh inning of a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won 9-5. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Marlon Byrd, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Another one of the more oft-mentioned names, Byrd to the Mariners seemed likely to get gone just a few weeks ago. The hangup ended up being that for him to waive his no-trade clause to Seattle, the Mariners would be required to guarantee his contract in 2016, when he will be 38 years old, and probably pretty unproductive.

For this year though, he makes some sense as a player. He is the “right-handed power” they are known to covet, but he is actually a solid player, unlike some names thrown around.

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He currently owns a .266/.316/.478 line with 20 home runs and a 119 wRC+. His defense is not as valuable as Zobrist’s on account of being limited to the corner outfield, he has been a positive defender in right field, with a +6 DRS this year, and +12 last year. So while he isn’t young anymore, he is an above average hitter, and above average fielder.

The main reason he has only been worth 1.3 WAR on the year is that, as mentioned before, he plays a position that isn’t all that valuable, and his baserunning value has taken a large hit this year. The contract won’t look pretty after this season, but he would present an upgrade over Chavez and Stefen Romero, hitting somewhere between fourth and sixth.

Jul 12, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder Justin Ruggiano (20) hits a double during the third inning against the Atlanta Braves at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Ruggiano, OF, Chicago Cubs

This is a name that hasn’t been mentioned nearly as often as the others, but is most likely available. He is a free agent after the season, and the Cubs aren’t going anywhere this year. They should look to sell high on him while they can, considering they have a plethora of young players coming up soon, and don’t need to pay him to come back next year.

While Ruggiano has always looked to be a pretty capable player, he has been limited to part time and platoon roles for much of his career. He has a career 126 wRC+ against left-handers, so he makes for a good platoon bat. But his numbers against righties aren’t too shabby either, with a 97 wRC+.

With that in mind, I find it hard to believe he has never really been given a shot, or viewed as a valuable, every day guy. A career 107 wRC+ overall with roughly average defense at all three outfield spots would seem like a nice complementary piece for any team.

He has been used sparingly this year, due to both injury, and the Cubs going with other options. But in that short time, 187 plate appearances, he has posted a 124 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR, having hit right handers just as well as south paws (which is due to regress back toward his career rates).

But even then, ZiPS has him posting a 108 wRC+ for the rest of the year, finishing with 1.1 WAR over 329 total plate appearances, or a pace of 2 WAR over 600 PA. That represents a reasonable upgrade over James Jones, Corey Hart and/or Logan Morrison, and likely at a lesser cost than some of the alternatives.

Last year, he was traded for AAAA outfielder Brian Bogusevic. So next to nothing. His value may be higher now, but it still shouldn’t take anything that will be difficult to part with. Maybe a reliever like Yoervis Medina, or a mid-lower prospect like Ketel Marte, or Patrick Kivlehan, and that may even be high.

He isn’t a star, but he is much better than the current alternatives, and won’t take away from the team’s future.

Jul 23, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; New York Mets pitcher Bartolo Colon (40) throws against the Seattle Mariners during the second inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Bartolo Colon, SP, New York Mets

It seems the common belief is that the Mariners need not pursue a starting pitcher because they are currently one of the better pitching teams in the league. The latter is true, the former is not.

Roenis Elias is not going to finish out the year, meaning their number four starter is out of the picture. Taijuan Walker has struggled since returning from injury, and could benefit from more seasoning, whether it be in Triple-A, or the major. The problem there is, even if it is at the major league level, you have a guy trying to hone his skills during a playoff race when what you need is a dependable starter.

James Paxton could be back soon, but he is another question mark. That is a long time to be out and to expect him to return to pre-injury form right away, if at all, is a fools errand.

From there, you have Erasmo Ramirez struggling to get through five innings without walking the world, or Brandon Maurer getting another chance in the rotation, which would add some uncertainty to the bullpen (though it was strong without him) and simultaneously place another question mark in the rotation.

Enter Bartolo Colon. He is probably the least aesthetically pleasing player possible, but looks are next to meaningless. He has defied the laws of aging, and the laws of every diet or health plan ever constructed. He is 41 years old, and weighs 285 pounds, but man if he can’t locate a fastball.

He has a 4.03 ERA and 3.49 FIP on the year in 135 innings. Those are the numbers of a good #3/4 starter, and there is very little risk involved, despite the aforementioned age and body fat content. You pretty much know what you will be getting, which is more than can be said for Elias, Paxton, Walker, and even Chris Young, who despite doing a great job of preventing runs has peripherals that suggest some of the success is bound to fade at some point.

Colon is under contract for next year as well, but reports have stated that the Mets are willing to pay $2M of the 2/20 he signed last offseason. Though paying a pitcher $9M at 42 years old seems silly, he has already avoided the traditional decline, which makes me far less worried about paying him next year.

He was a 3.9 fWAR guy last year, and is on pace for around 2.5 this year. Following that pattern, you can probably expect 1.5 WAR or so from him next year, which by current market standards is worth the $9 million.

It is unclear who the Mets would want in return, but I personally would be hesitant to give up anyone like Nick Franklin. A couple mid level prospects would make sense (Pike and Kivlehan?), but the Mets may want more.

Jul 26, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22, right) walks back to the dugout the after the final out of a 4-3 victory over the Baltimore Orioles at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

It may already be obvious by my tone above, but if not, here is what my ideal deadline would look like.

If Ben Zobrist is at all available, I think you pull out all the stops (short of making a blatantly dumb move) to make him a Mariner. He is the best player on the list above, and a near perfect fit right now.

If he is not, I would love to see them go under the radar and pick up Ruggiano, who may be the least appealing above in terms of name and value but would probably cost next to nothing while still being a large upgrade. He could be exchanged with Chris Denorfia and you probably get a similar effect.

In addition, Bartolo Colon makes perfect sense to me as a all but guaranteed veteran to take Elias’ spot in the rotation, and provide the depth the team needs from that spot both this year and next. Again, the price has to be right, but if it is, you pull the trigger.

Marlon Byrd is nice in theory, and would be a big help. But he may cost more in trade than he should, and the two following years could become scary. He isn’t my favorite, but I am not against it. Kemp on the other hand, I have little to no interest in unless he costs nothing, both in prospects and money.