Mariners Trade Rumors: Seattle Gearing Up For David Price?

There has been plenty of chatter surrounding the Mariners as we approach the All-Star Break and Trade Deadline in regards to potential trade acquisitions; some substantiated, some probably not.

That is to be expected, especially the latter, but that doesn’t mean trade rumors aren’t fun, and occasionally, they do come to fruition.

The latest buzz, which will likely be more exciting than other names, comes from Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish, who cites sources as saying that the recent roster shuffling the Mariners have gone through could be a sign of them prepping for a major acquisition.

Cotillo went on to speculate (this is where the unsubstantiated portion comes in) that the deal they are gearing up for could involve the Rays, specifically David Price and/or Ben Zobrist.

Price has been linked to the Mariners since last year, as he will be a free agent after 2015, and it seemed unlikely that he would sign an extension in Tampa Bay.

He has proven himself to be one of the top pitchers in the league year in and year out, with a 3.09 ERA (80 ERA-) and 3.20 FIP (83 FIP-) from 2010 to right now.

He has three straight seasons of 4.0 fWAR or more under his belt, and is on pace for another 4+ win season this year.

His calling card this year though, in lieu of his slightly inflated 3.48 ERA, has been his incredible K/BB ratio of 7.95, 2nd only to Phil Hughes, who dominated the Mariners yesterday.

But Price’s sudden susceptibility to the long ball (1.22 HR/9) is a big reason why his ERA is about 30 points higher than his FIP.

However his xFIP, which normalizes HR/FB rate due to the fact that in most cases, pitchers regress back towards that league average rate (more info here) tells us he hasn’t quite earned that poor HR rate, as he is currently sitting at 2.68.

FIP is made up of the three true outcomes — strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Price has been amazing at maximizing Ks and limiting walks, so it makes sense that when you bring his home run rates back down to where they probably should be, he looks like one of the more dominant pitchers in the league.

That doesn’t mean you can throw out those home runs, as they did actually happen, and there is a chance he is doing something to actually “earn” those dingers.

But it stands to reason that he shouldn’t give up quite that many, given his career HR/9 of 0.86, and HR/FB of 9.6% (league average is usually around 9.5%).

All that being said, Price is clearly one of the best hurlers in the league, and will likely cost a fortune, in the form of top prospect talent.

Some writers frown upon making up trade ideas, and I do at times too. It is so often completely off-base, as we either don’t have any idea what teams are asking for, and/or we under or overrate players involved because of our previous biases.

That being said, I think Taijuan Walker is assuredly a must in any deal for Price, and you build from there. Nick Franklin is blocked and continues to mash in Triple-A, so you can probably include him.

Roenis Elias becomes a 6th option if you have Price and if Paxton is healthy, and he could develop into a quality 4th starter elsewhere.

And from there, you may have to add a bullpen piece such as Yoervis Medina or Carson Smith (hopefully one of them, rather than Dominic Leone or Danny Farquhar).

More players may be involved on either side, but a trade built around guys like that seems to make sense.