Seattle Mariners: Top 5 Things to Watch This Weekend

Apr 14, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher

(29) throws during the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to a new series here at Sodo Mojo called Top 5 @ 5. It will pop up here every Friday at 5:00 PM. In it, I will outline five players, events, or storylines to watch out for over the weekend. We would also like to invite you to take to our Twitter and Facebook pages to share your thoughts on this weekend’s stories, or make suggestions for next week.

This weekend, the Mariners travel to Miami to play their first interleague series of the year, taking on the Marlins in a three game set. There are more than a few things to look out for in this series, but I’d like to outline the five I think you need to pay special attention to.

1. The Potential For Offense

Apr 17, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners designated hitter

(22) bats in the fourth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday’s game in Texas turned out to be a slugfest, with both starters, Erasmo Ramirez and Tanner Scheppers, being knocked out before finishing the third inning. While all of the M’s runs came in that third inning, they were able to put up six of them, against both Scheppers and Hector Noesi. That, and their 10 hits and five walks on the game may suggest the offense is starting to creep back toward where they were at the beginning of the year, and away from their recent, shutout-prone ways.

This series looks like a good match for more of the same from the M’s, in a relatively hitter friendly environment against some hitter friendly pitching. The M’s will matchup against Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez and Kevin Slowey, none of which figure to dominate if things go as expected for their respective talents.

On the year, the three have done the following:

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As you can see, the last starter of the series, Slowey, will be making his first start of the season, having pitched like a back-ender at best in three relief appearances. Alvarez has pitched about on par with Slowey in his first three starts, so he also doesn’t figure to be a huge threat if his success so far this season is any indication.

Tonight’s hurler, in the form of Nathan Eovaldi, could present a problem however. While his ERA to this point isn’t very good, his dominant FIP of 2.07 suggests some positive regression in the run prevention department.

He has struck out just under nine batters per nine innings, while walking under a half a batter per game. The walks are also due for regression, and the strikeouts too to a lesser extent, but if he continues pitching as well as FIP says he has to this point, the M’s offense could have a tough time.

The M’s have the 11th highest K-rate and 9th lowest BB-rate to this point on the year, so going up against a guy who has been especially good at inducing or preventing those things respectively could exacerbate the problem.

However, on the whole, offense doesn’t figure to be at a premium in this series, but that likely extends to both sides. The Mariners will run out Chris Young, the most extreme fly-ball pitcher in the league, Brandon Maurer, who was knocked around a lot last year and will make his first appearance of the year, and Roenis Elias, who’s 4.27 xFIP suggests he should be giving up more runs than his current 2.19 mark.

3. Kyle Seager Will Be Okay

Apr 14, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager (15) bats during the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Seager has also had a rough start to the season after being pegged by most as the only other sure thing in the lineup, next to Robinson Cano. He has put up two seasons at roughly 3.5 WAR, with little indication that he will regress. His slow start, along with a poor second half of last year has many worried about a guy that was looked at as a guarantee.

The Seaboss himself doesn’t share in the apprehension though. He talked to Brian Abker of 950 KJR today about his struggles, and said “I know everything is going to be alright, you just get into these things over the course of playing baseball for a long time. You hit your highs, and you’ll get yourself a little out of whack a couple times…And we’re continually working on that to get it right so we can turn it around….”

Many looked at the Texas series as the time when Seager would finally break out, citing his .374 average and 14-game hitting streak in Arlington. And while that wasn’t exactly the case as Kyle had just three hits and a walk in 18 PA, he did show some signs of improvement. He only struck out twice in those 18 appearances (11%), and his .278 OBP is decent considering the .188 average.

I think it is only a matter of time before Kyle transforms back into something much closer to what we are used to, and this series seems like as good a time as any, with the seemingly improved approach at the plate, questionable pitching opposition, and non-Safeco/Colisieum/Angels Stadium environment.

4. Logan Morrison Making An Impact, Even on the DL

Former Marlin Logan Morrison will not play during the series, having been placed on the 15-day disabled list, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make news in some way. Morrison is known for his controversial presence on Twitter, often saying things he clearly shouldn’t say.

He sounded a little angry when the Marlins first traded him to Seattle, so there is certainly fuel present. He will be in Miami with the team, and you never know what might prompt an equally unknown reacting from LoMo. Whether it be a fan at the stadium, or one on Twitter, or just LoMo taking it upon himself to say something stupid, I would say the likelihood of that happening is probably pretty high.

Keep an eye on @CupofLomo on Twitter over the weekend. You may be entertained, you may be offended, you may be both at the same time.

5. A Series Win for the Mariners

Apr 1, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Seattle Mariners manager

before the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

After sweeping the Angels to start the year, the M’s have yet to win another series, going 1-3 in Oakland (with the chance to make it a split with a makeup win), 1-1 at home against LAA, 1-2 at home against Oakland, and 1-3 in Texas.

This series, taking on a 6-10 Marlins team, seems like a good opportunity to get their second series win on the year. The Marlins may have even outperformed their true talent level at times, and when you say that about a team that is still only 6-10, it tells you you aren’t up against a very strong opponent.

They have won just one game since their 5-2 start against the Rockies and Padres, that coming in an 11-2 rout over the Phillies on Jackie Robinson Day. Fangraphs projects Miami to win 74 games on the year, with the M’s at 81. And while one series can easily go either way, the Mariners look to be the better team, even while severely hampered with injuries.

I see the M’s pulling two wins out of the three, losing just the Sunday game due to needing a lot out of an already overworked bullpen.

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