James Paxton: How Good Can He Be?

The Road Less Traveled

Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Paxton has had an interesting path to the majors, having been drafted by the Blue Jays in the first round, not signing, being ineligible to return to college, playing independent ball with the American Association, and then getting drafted again, this time by the Mariners in the fourth round.

All that work has paid off so far though, as Paxton has been extremely impressive in his first five major league starts following an up and down yet overall successful minor league career. In those five appearances, Paxton has compiled 31 innings, and posted a 1.16 ERA, 2.85 FIP, while racking up 30 strikeouts to just 9 walks.

That sample, while impressive and reassuring, is obviously too small in every regard to be able to draw conclusions from it. But we can combine the major league numbers with his minor league marks and scouting reports to get an accurate picture of the kind of pitcher Paxton is now, and could be in the future.

In his two longest minor league stints, Double-A in 2012 and Triple-A in 2013, Paxton put up a 3.05 ERA/3.29 FIP and 4.45 ERA/3.55 FIP respectively. Those show some different results on their face, but it isn’t all that bad when  you really break it down.

While Paxton gave up more runs and struck out fewer batters with Tacoma (8.90 K/9 in AAA vs. 9.31 in AA), he did so while walking one fewer batter per game, which is a pretty big deal considering Paxton’s achilles heel has always been his control.

When looking at minor league numbers, you can’t always just look at the overall success. Guys are figuring things out and tinkering with their approach to try to combat whatever problems they are having. So Paxton improving on his walks is a positive, even if it came with fewer strikeouts and more runs allowed. We simply have to wait to see if he is able to put all of that together at the major league level.

What The Scouts Say

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

In moving on to scouting reports, you will get varying idea of Paxton’s ability. All of them love his stuff, that is a given. But where the differences arise are in the writer’s confidence of his ability to use that stuff effectively, and continue improving upon his command.

Scoutingbook.com said “His mid-nineties stuff and sick breaking ball hasn’t yet translated to many overpowering performances…,” which echoes the idea that he may not always use his nasty stuff effectively.

John Sickels wondered back in September whether Paxton would be “the guy who looks like a mid-rotation starter, or the guy who will be lucky to have a career in middle relief.” That certainly doesn’t sound very reassuring considering it suggests that Paxton’s relative upside is that of a mid-rotation starter, while also having an equal chance of becoming an average reliever.

What really inspired this post was comments from fellow fans around the internet suggesting Paxton had upside comparable to that of Clayton Kershaw. The comparison makes a level of sense in that both of hard throwing lefties with a good curveball and a similar, over-the-top release. But there are just as many differences that hold Paxton back from that projection, at least in my opinion.

The most obvious difference being age. While Kershaw also struggled with walks early in his career (4.35 and 4.79 BB/9 in his first two seasons), his walk rate dropped to 2.08 in 2011, at age 23. That means his struggles came at ages 20 and 21. Paxton was 21 when he was first drafted and unsigned by the Jays. On top of that Kershaw had a minor league walk rate of 3.7, while Paxton was a 4.0.

It should also be mentioned that, while Paxton throws harder, his overall stuff doesn’t match that of Kershaw. Pitch F/X gave Kershaw’s curveball an 11.6 wCU (curveball runs above average) last season. Paxton’s curve isn’t likely to match that, and even if it does, he doesn’t have another pitch of that value, while Kershaw also has a slider that has had a wSL of 22.6 in the past.

All of Kershaw’s pitches are average or better, and I don’t think Paxton will ever reach that threshold. His changeup has never gotten rave reviews, and he hasn’t thrown his cutter for a long enough period to make definitive claims about it’s value.

None of this proves that Paxton doesn’t have Kershaw-upside. Upside in itself is a very subjective idea, and Paxton may have improved exponentially as of late, with reports that he watched a lot of Kershaw video to make changes to his release point. I just think, with all of the information we have, it is a big stretch to say that Paxton could become the best pitcher in the league.

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Bottom Line

So what is his upside? I asked Jeff Sullivan of USS Mariner and Fangraphs what he thinks his upside, and he replied with “a healthy Erik Bedard.” On it’s face, that may not sound like high praise, as the Bedard we remember was always hurt, and not all that amazing when he did pitch.

But it’s easy to forget that Bedard was pretty awesome with the Orioles, posting the following from 2005 to 2007:
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I can’t speak for everyone, but I would take a range of 3.5-5 WAR from James Paxton in the #2 or 3 slot in the rotation. However, I think the 3-4 WAR range is actually pretty likely from what I have seen so far, with the 5 WAR mark being the upside. So if the statement of upside is morphed to “healthy, 2007 Bedard,” then I agree wholeheartedly.

Regardless of if you think Paxton will be Clayton Kershaw, Erik Bedard, or Dennis Cook (spoiler alert: he isn’t Dennis Cook. Wait, who is Dennis Cook?) there is reason to be excited about him right now, and a lengthy conversation to be had regarding his future. 95+ with a hard breaker from the left side is a good starting point for success.

As always, feel free to comment with your opinion on Paxton and his upside.