2014 AL East Preview And Predictions

Welcome fans to the 4th part of my 7-part series, previewing and predicting the 2014 MLB season. This week, we focus on the AL East. If you missed the National League predictions, you can check them out with the links below:

NL East

NL Central

NL West

It should come as no surprise that the AL East will be one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball. Check out how I think it will all shake out.

Oct 5, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher David Price (14) pitches during the first inning in game two of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

2) Tampa Bay Rays: 89-73 (Wild-Card)

1- Why will this team exceed expectations?

Drew Jenkins from Rays Colored Glasses: The Rays will exceed expectations because they have so many players that seem in line for a better season than they had last year. Ben Zobrist is likely to put up better power numbers than last year.

Evan Longoria‘s numbers will go up because he won’t have a huge slump like he did last year. Desmond Jennings will hit for more pop because of added strength. Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, and Chris Archer could get better with another year of big league experience under their belt. The list goes on and on.

2- Why will this team fall short of expectations?

The main reason this team will fall short of expectations the bullpen. Grant Balfour is a solid bet at the 9th inning and Joel Peralta is fairly reliable, but after that there are so many question marks. Heath Bell used to be great, but not so much the last couple seasons. Can he bounce back? Juan Carlos Oviedo was good, but hasn’t thrown a big league pitch in two years.

Jake McGee was disappointing last year, and is limited because he throws his fastball 95+% of the time. However, that fastball is very difficult to hit and if he can develop at least one passable secondary pitch, he could be a closer soon. It’s crazy because the Rays actually have 4 guys who, at their best, could be closers for most teams, but three of those have significant question marks.

3- Look for the team to make (this trade)

The Nick Franklin-Rays rumors have been swirling the last few days, and I think it could be a feasible option. He would be an immediate upgrade on the bench, with the upside of starting at second base in the future.

He might cost a young pitcher to acquire, but we all know the Rays have plenty of those. Supposedly a deal was close before Jeremy Hellickson went down to an elbow injury, but I think the Rays still have the depth to get a deal done if they want to.

4- Watch out for the emergence of (prospect)

Watch out for Kevin Kiermaier. He plays plus defense in center field, but his bat has always come into question. Last year the bat took off, and if he can prove that wasn’t a fluke in Triple-A, then Desmond Jennings could see himself moving over to left field before the season is over.

Mar 9, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter (2) force out Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Wil Myers (9) and throws the ball to first for a double play during the fourth inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

3) New York Yankees: 84-78

1- Why will this team exceed expectations?

Scott Alfano from Yanks Go Yard: The New York Yankees went through a major roster update in the 2013-2014 off-season. The additions of Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Masahiro Tanaka have upgraded the team right into late October discussions.

Regardless of the year prior, the expectations for the Yankees will always be World Series or bust. They missed the playoffs last year, scoring an anemic 650 runs. Now with a complete lineup, the Yankees will propel themselves late into the playoffs, if not the World Series itself.

2- Why will this team fall short of expectations?

Remember all those additions I mentioned? The Yankees also swapped Robinson Cano for Brian Roberts at second base.  They also lost Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes. Lastly, they still have C.C. Sabathia.  He owned a 4.78 ERA last season, good for 76th out of 82 qualifying pitchers. Of course, Yankees and Yankee fans expect Tanaka to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

However, he is not a sure thing and neither is the rest of the rotation. No one knows what Sabathia will deliver this year, Kuroda is nearly 40, Tanaka is brand new to the MLB, and Michael Pineda, if he wins the 5th spot, hasn’t pitched in over two years. Asking every pitcher to perform at or above expectations is a lofty and optimistic goal. The Yankees rotation will make or break this team.

3- Look for the team to make (this trade)

The Yankees have a ton of depth at catcher. Aside from free agent prize Brian McCann, the Yankees have Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, and J.R. Murphy. Sanchez is seen as the successor to McCann and is nearly untouchable.

However, the other three can be on the move at any time. Cervelli has had relative success catching over the years, but missed 50 games last year to a positive PED test. Romine is great defensively, but lacks with the bat. Murphy is ready to go offensively, but needs time to develop behind the plate. Murphy is the clear choice to get the most back.

Though it will hurt, the Yankees need to realize that between McCann and Sanchez, Murphy will never play so he needs to go while his value is sky high. Look for the Yankees to either make a minor move with Romine, or a splash with Murphy, most likely for an infielder.

4- Watch out for the emergence of (prospect)

Yangervis Solarte. Believe it or not, the Yankees have a handful of players that are ready or almost ready to play MLB level ball in their farm system. Solarte is the clear choice here for a variety of reasons. He can play second, third, or short.

These are all areas of need for the Yankees. He impressed with the Rangers the last two seasons, and is a player the Yankees should feel fortunate to have. Additionally, he is absolutely destroying the ball this spring training, batting 10/15 (.667) with two home runs. While it takes about 35 at bats to get a true sample size, he has certainly given the Yankees’ front office something to think about.

Mar 9, 2014; Kissimmee, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) is congratulated by teammates after scoring in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros in a spring training exhibition game at Osceola County Stadium. Bautista had a ground rule-double to lead off the sixth. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

4) Toronto Blue Jays: 80-82

1- Why will this team exceed expectations?

Shaun Doyle from Jay’s Journal: The simple answer is that the expectations are very low for this team. Being that they have not done much (save for replace JP Arencibia with Dioner Navarro) to improve the team, the Blue Jays are expected to finish last in the AL East.

We must remember that this team IS mostly unchanged and last season, they were the favorites to not only make the playoffs, but to challenge for a championship. Yes, everyone is a year older, but they are also healthy…for now. Injuries caused the Blue Jays to lose key players for extended periods of time. These losses translated to losses on the field.

With a healthy season form players like Brandon Morrow, Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Cobly Rasmus, Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Lawrie, this team is primed to exceed expectations.

2- Why will this team fall short of expectations?

It is hard to imagine the Toronto Blue Jays falling below expectations. What is below last? But, where they will fall is in the rotation. There are too many question marks for fans to be comfortable. After R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, there are A LOT of “ifs”.

Firstly, there is the health of Brandon Morrow. Morrow is an ace in waiting. But, they need him to stay on the field for a whole season. That is asking a lot. After that Jays fans have no idea what to expect. J.A. Happ will serve as the 4th starter. Then we have an open competition designed by The Riddler- question marks everywhere you look.

Can Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison come back from Tommy John surgery? Can Todd Redmond handle more than spot starts? Can Esmil Rogers? Do we rush Marcus Stroman based on they hype surrounding him?

3- Look for the team to make (this trade)

If the Blue Jays are out of the hunt by the trade deadline, look for them to try and unload. Buerhle’s is a large contract that they may wish to unload and he would be a good option for a contending team. However, what may be even more likely is Colby Rasmus being on the block with him being ready to hit free agency this coming fall. The Jays will look to upgrade in several areas.

They may look for a full time, young controllable second baseman, a young catcher who is capable of handling the everyday role. The Jays have Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra, Kevin Pillar that could step in to round out the outfield if the season is lost at the end of July.

4- Watch out for the emergence of (prospect)

The obvious answer to this question would be Marcus Stroman. With the lack of pitching moves, a lot of faith has been put into this kid. Depending on injuries, we could also get a look at Aaron Sanchez. Last offseason, Sanchez was “off limits” in trade discussions. This summer, Jays fans may get to see why.

Mar 11, 2014; Sarasota, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) during his at bat during the fourth inning agains the Boston Red Sox at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

5) Baltimore Orioles: 78-84

1- Why will this team exceed expectations?

Domenic Vadala from Birds Watcher: The Orioles have beefed up their starting rotation with the addition of Ubaldo Jimenez. That takes a bit of pressure off of the likes of Chris Tillman and the other starters to in essence have to be perfect each time out. As a result, some very good pitchers will be relegated to the bullpen or to triple-A, which adds organizational depth. The Orioles were 21-30 in one-run games in 2013, and one hopes that adding Nelson Cruz to a lineup that already hit more home runs than any other team last season might help to add runs to the total and thus help the Birds to more victories in 2014.

2- Why will this team fall short of expectations?

Chris Tillman and the aforementioned Jimenez are the two big arms in the Orioles’ rotation. However the likes of Miguel Gonzalez and Wei-Yin Chen (among others) cannot afford to take steps backwards this year. If that happens, the O’s as a franchise might take a step backwards. The back end of the bullpen is also a major question mark, with the trade of Jim Johnson to Oakland this past winter. Tommy Hunter is expected to be the primary closer, however will he be able to get the job done in a close ballgame? That’s a question facing the Orioles right now.

3- Look for the team to make (this trade)

Really tough to say right now. Top to bottom the O’s have a very ample lineup. If a pitcher or even a reliever on a team that ends up out of contention emerges as a trade candidate, the O’s might have some interest, but we won’t know until the deadline. However the surplus of pitching that they have in camp could act as trade bait. On the flip side, if the unthinkable happens and it’s in fact the Orioles who are struggling through their season, I could see them shopping Nelson Cruz to a contender. (But the thought is that won’t be the case!)

4- Watch out for the emergence of (prospect)

Dylan Bundy “had a cup of coffee” in the big leagues at the end of 2012, however he’s coming off of Tommy Johns surgery. He should be ready by mid-season, that is if the Orioles have a place for him. At some point we might also see second base prospect Jonathan Schoop have the opportunity to come up and play at the big league level. The question is when; last season he received a September call-up.