Mariners Spring Training Preview: The Bullpen

Aug 20, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Seattle Mariners relief pitcher

(40) celebrates with catcher

(35) after the win against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. The Seattle Mariners defeated the Oakland Athletics 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

**Editor’s Note: This is part three of a five-part series previewing Mariners Spring Training. Please feel free to check out Part one (Outfield) and Part two (Infield) with the links provided. Thanks for reading.

Aside from the revolving door that was the bottom three in the pitching rotation last season, the bullpen was the most disappointing part of 2013. Although you could argue defense– especially in the outfield– was up there too.

Before we look at what 2014 might look like in The ‘Pen, let’s agonize over last season’s numbers:

Bad Things (very bad things):

• Out of the 30 bullpens in the MLB the Mariners ranked 29th in ERA with 4.58. The ‘Pen that ranked 30th was the Houston Astros, whose ERA was bloated to 4.92. That’s no good, folks.
• They allowed 273 runs, 257 of those earned– the unearned runs were a combination of inherited runners from the starters and errors. I want to say it was mostly errors but it was mostly both, unfortunately.
• The ‘Pen had a 2.388 K/BB ratio over the course of the season. Also bad. The American League average was 2.47 K/BB. In the National League the average was slightly lower at 2.443 K/BB.
• They were 25th in the MLB with a .253 batting average against (BAA)
• And yay! They also had the 4th-most losses as a bullpen in baseball.
• The ‘Pen Also blew 23 saves en route to 33 losses in the ‘Pen, good enough again for 4th-worst in the league.
• They were 8th in home runs allowed at 55

But it wasn’t ENTIRELY terrible in 2013…

Good(ish) Things:

• The ‘Pen was 11th in baseball with 43 saves. Which isn’t all that bad considering they blew 23 others and only won 71 games. So there’s one pat on the back for the boys chilling out in Left Center Field.
• The Mariners bullpen was 1st, first, first, FIRST! in strikeouts in 2013 at 535 strikeouts over 505.0 Innings Pitched. That’s pretty sweet. Something for them to hang their hats on, and hopefully something that will lead to less inflated numbers in 2014.
• Hmm, that’s really it on the good unless I start digging into things so obscure Billy Beane wouldn’t know what I was talking about.

So if you weren’t already sure, last season was not good in the ‘Pen. And if you had finally squished those thoughts down into the depth of your subconscious, I am sorry for bringing them up again.

I’m done with Monday Morning Quarterbacking now so you can breathe easy.

Sep 18, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Seattle Mariners relief pitcher

(54) watches from the dugout in the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Candidates (in alphabetical order):

• Logan Bawcom (RHP)
• Blake Beavan (RHP) — likely only as a long reliever
• Danny Farquhar (RHP)
• Charlie Furbush (LHP)
• Bobby LaFromboise (LHP)
• Lucas Luetge (LHP)
• Brandon Maurer (RHP) — likely only as a long reliever.
• Yoervis Medina (RHP)
• Hector Noesi (RHP) — likely only as a long reliever.
• Stephen Pryor (RPH)
• Erasmo Ramirez (RHP) — only as a long reliever if he doesn’t find his way into the starting rotation.
• Tom Wilhelmsen (RHP)

And…..

• Fernando Rodney (RHP) — who has reportedly been signed by the Mariners for 2 years/$14 million with incentives.

Spots To Fill?

For most teams in the American League, the 25-man roster will consist of five starting pitchers, seven relief pitchers, two catchers, six infielders, and five outfielders– with one of the infielders/outfielders/catchers also being a regular DH. Though for the Mariners we have more DHs than lockers in the locker room.

So let’s assume– yes, I know what assuming does we have discussed it before– that the Mariners start the season with seven guys in the bullpen.

May 21, 2013; Anaheim, CA, USA; Seattle Mariners reliever Lucas Luetege (44) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. The Angels defeated the Mariners 12-0. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Final Lefty:

This battle comes down to Bobby LaFromboise and Lucas Luetge unless the Mariners are looking for someone else via free agency or trade. Also– because of the volatility of so many of the minor-league deals made by the M’s this offseason, I am largely ignoring pitchers like Scott Baker right now, simply because the Mariners are already uncertain enough that throwing them into the mix would give me a headache. Or worse, a migraine.

But let’s look at LaFromboise and Luetge side by side:

LaFromboise: GP: 10; IP 10.2; 7 ER; 4 BB; 11 SO; 12 H; 0 HR; 1.50 WHIP; 5.91 ERA

Luetge: GP: 25; IP 37.0; 20 ER; 16 BB; 27 SO; 42 H; 2 HR; 1.57 WHIP; 4.86 ERA.

Ok so neither of those guys look particularly good. However, LaFromboise’s sample size is too small to make an educated and informed decision. And Luetge was lights-out in 2012, and for whatever reason his command went out the window this last season.

Something to note for these two: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is normally between .290 and .310 for the average hitter. In 2012, Luetge’s BABIP-against was at .306 so right in the middle of that average range. However in his 37.0 innings in 2013, that BABIP-against was .345. And even in LaFromboise’s limited sample, his BABIP-against was an absurd .387.

Either Luetge got significantly worse and LaFromboise isn’t a very good pitcher, or those numbers should go down in 2014.

Between these two I think Luetge has the edge for one reason: experience. He has shown dominance against lefties before, and if he can get his confidence back there is no reason he cannot do that again. LaFromboise will end up in Triple-A, polishing his control and prepared for a midseason call-up when injuries and disaster inevitably hit.

Aug 29, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Erasmo Ramirez (50) pitches during the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Long Reliever:

As of today the long reliever spot in the bullpen is as mysterious as a Stephen King novel. Dan touched on the Mariners continued search for starting pitching last night. It really does seem like the Super Bowl victory by the Seahawks is rocking the Mariners boat and giving a little extra nudge to try to win before the end of the decade.

There are a lot of layers to this last bullpen spot. 1) If the M’s do sign or trade for another starter, that bumps down all the other starting pitchers on the list. 2) If the M’s do not sign or trade for another starter, there is still a battle for the 6-9 spots in the rotation– or the rotation spots in Triple-A Tacoma and the long relief bullpen spot.

I’m going to go out and say it: I expect the Mariners to give Ervin Santana a 4 year/$52 million offer. In turn, I expect him to become a Mariner– he follows me on Twitter so I know things.

If he does become True to the Blue, he would be the #3 starter. Then, if all goes as planned, it looks like Taijuan Walker and James Paxton would be the #4 and the #5.

So who is the long reliever/#6?

My money is on Erasmo Ramirez. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Pocket Rocket actually nabbed the #5 spot and the Mariners gave either Walker or Paxton a little more time in Tacoma to work on their control.

The potential of Walker and Paxton is too much, though. If they make strides early in the season in Seattle, the rotation could really be a force in the AL West. And Ramirez is the perfect guy to be the #6. He has proven himself to be above the likes of Beavan, Maurer (who is still too inexperienced), and Hector Noesi (oh God).

Granted, like most of the young pitchers on this roster, Ramirez needs to work on his control– he walked 26 batters to just 57 strikeouts in 72.1 innings last season.

But when all is said and done; Pocket Rocket Erasmo Ramirez will round out the 7th spot in the 2014 Mariners bullpen.

Wilhelmsen and Medina:

Sep 17, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Seattle Mariners relief pitcher Yoervis Medina (31) walks off the field after being relieved in the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Yoervis Medina had an up and down rookie season but showed enough promise to be in the 2014 bullpen conversation. He had a 2.91 ERA, 1 save (3 blown saves), 71 strikeouts over 68.0 innings but also 40 walks. Control will be the name of his Spring Training. But unless he really struggles in the spring, expect funky-cold-Medina out there on Opening Day.

His biggest competition will be with one-time Mariners closer Tom Wilhelmsen, who collapsed mid-way through last season. If he can find his confidence and command again, he should have no problem finding his way into the bullpen.

However, all of this poses a bit of a problem: I have Pryor penciled in with a bullpen spot, but it looks like it could be these three guys vying for two righty spots in the ‘Pen. Unless the Mariners decide to ditch the idea of a long reliever to start the year and stick Wilhelmsen, Medina, and Pryor all out in the ‘Pen.

This is really a tough situation to gauge, but I think Wilhelmsen’s experience will get him out there on Opening Day. And the promise Pryor showed his rookie season and to start last season is hard to pass up.

It really is a tossup, but I think the M’s will go with a long reliever, Wilhelmsen, and Pryor, and give Medina time in Tacoma to work on his command. He will then be MLB ready for when injuries come up.

Aug 27, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners relief pitcher Charlie Furbush (41) pitches to the Texas Rangers during the 7th inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Synthesis:

I hope everyone got through that relatively unscathed. There is a lot to think about when it comes to the 2014 Mariners. So much of it is uncertain. So much of it is a little frightening. And so much of it is contingent on PITCHING– which if you didn’t know wins championships. Just like defense wins championships in football: Seahawks case and point.

And don’t get me started on the Mariners defense.

The Seven-Man Bullpen:

• Long-Reliever (for when someone get’s shelled early): “Pocket Rocket” Erasmo Ramirez
• Right-Handed Reliever: Tom “Closing Time” Wilhelmsen
• Right-Handed Specialist: Stephen Pryor
• Left-Handed Reliever: Lucas Luetge
• Left-Handed Specialist: Charlie “The ‘Bush” Furbush
• Set-up Man: Danny “Lord” Farquhar
• Closer: Fernando Rodney

And that’s a wrap on the Sodo Mojo Mariners Spring Training Preview: The Bullpen. We are only four days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Surprise, Arizona.

It can’t come soon enough. In part because I just miss Mariners baseball. But even more so I am just as curious as the next guy as to how the heck this season is going to play out.