Mariners to Trade for a Closer? What about Danny Farquhar?

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The Winter Meetings will be exciting. The Mariners seem to be in the market on pretty much everyone, and speculation is that they will make another splash this week in Orlando.

The Mariners are in the market for at least one more bat and another starter to back the King-‘Kuma combo. Rumors also indicate that the Mariners have been chasing a closer as well.

Before he was re-signed by the Dodgers, Brian Wilson was rumored to be a Mariners target, the same can be said for Grant Balfour and now former Brewers closer John Axford.

After last year’s monumental implosion from Tom Wilhelmsen, and a previous meltdown from Brandon League, it’s understandable that the Mariners are cautious when it comes to late-inning pitching.

Last season we saw the emergence of Danny Farquhar. In the last few months of the 2013 season, Farquhar emerged as a ninth-inning-strike out-machine, and gave us something to be excited about in an otherwise forgettable season. It’s a very small sample size, but over 24 appearances in August and September, Farquhar converted 16 of 18 save opportunities.

This should at least give the Mariners’ front office pause when they consider signing or trading for another closer. Is it worthwhile to give Farquhar a real shot at being their guy in 2014, or would it be better to bring in a proven arm and push Farquhar back as a set-up guy?

A Brief History of All Things Farquhar

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Its understandable to want to give Farquhar a real chance at being the M’s closer next season. He certainly earned the opportunity to be considered. A brief look at his 2013 line really lays out just how much of a resurgence he had once the Mariners slid him into the closer slot in August 2013.

Farquhar was significantly better once he was moved into the closer role. He settled in and embraced the new role. What happened in that time?

For one, Farquhar started throwing significantly more pitches in the strike zone. As a closer, Farquhar threw 39.89% of pitches in the strike zone, up from 35.86% during the previous months. While upping his strike count, Farquhar was able to drop his ERA and opp OBP significantly.

There’s more to it than that though, a quick glance at the heat charts from those same time periods shows that his command actually improved even more than balls vs. strikes.

Farquhar obviously has a tendency to throw down and away, especially towards right-handed batters. But one big change between these two time periods is that Farquhar began to throw significantly more pitches in the bottom of the strike zone. Coincidentally, Farquhar’s wiff rate in the bottom half of the zone also jumped after being moved to the closing role.

These low-strike numbers are also impacted by Farquhar’s adoption of the curveball as a put away pitch. A pitch that Jeff Sullivan called the league’s most unhittable pitch.

All of this to show something that we already knew, keeping pitches low in the strike zone is a major key to success. It’s something that Farquhar was able to do over the second half of 2013, and it’s something that contributed greatly to his success.

This winter the Mariners have asked Farquhar not to play in the Venezualen winter league. They determined his workload in 2013 was too high, and want him to spend a winter recovering to prepare for 2014.

It’s understandable to make an argument for giving Farquhar another shot as closer in 2014, he has certainly shown he has the stuff to do it. I wouldn’t go as far to say that he’s earned it, but he’s done everything short of being the guy in 2014. Now that the M’s have signed Cano, and there appears to be another deal or two on the way, there’s some doubt in how the Mariners are going to rebuild, will they throw Farquhar into the fire and let him develop over the next few seasons, or will they seek a proven closer and try to make a serious run in the next few years?

Let Him Develop Some More

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I think it should be the surprise third option. Let him develop, but bring in some backup.

As much as we all love home-grown talent, it simply doesn’t make sense for the Mariners not to pursue any available closers. Danny Farquhar has a shot at being a very good MLB closer, but now that the Mariners are bringing in big-name guys (Cano….and I’m sure there will be more) the plan must be to make a serious run within the next few years.

There are still some closers available this winter. But one intriguing name is John Axford, the former Brewers closing machine, now in St. Louis. Over the last few seasons he has been relegated to middle relief in St. Louis, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that his career as a closer is done.

Axford offers a unique opportunity for the Mariners because he has spent a season+ as a reliever rather than a closer. Should the Mariners bring him in (and it may not be exceptionally costly), they would still be able to give Farquhar a chance as the closer, but would have Axford available in case Farquhar succumbs to the sophomore jinx.

John Axford makes ideal Danny Farquhar insurance.

Should Farquhar secure his closing spot again, Axford would add a little bit of veteran depth to a Mariner’s bullpen that has been widely criticized over the last few months.

I’m not saying that Farquhar will blow it in 2014, I have very high hopes and expectations for him. Which is why it doesn’t make sense for the Mariners to bring in an established closer like Grant Balfour, or Brian Wilson.

Even though John Axford has been mildly unpredictable of late, still represents a safe way to encourage Danny Farquhar, while at the same time provides a safety net in case the Mariners lose a third straight closer.

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