The Percentile And Erik Bedard


Erik Bedard, ahhh yes. Here we are there again. Debating over the usefulness of what could be one of the more talented pitchers in baseball. We tell ourselves “I’ll believe it, when I see it”. Then we are suddenly clutching to hope once more as reports surface that he has completed “multiple bullpen sessions”. Now, we’re right back to square one.

We get this feeling, similarly to when you see that crazy, hot ex-girlfriend that seemingly gets it all together. Only to find out after a couple of wasted months that she’s still hot and still extremely crazy.

It’s a similar situation to that of last year where we were trying to convince ourselves if only Bedard came back by May and was able to pitch the rest of the season… maybe, just maybe we could really give this a shot.

But the truth that relegates back to this year is regardless of how long Bedard pitches for the overall amount of production that he brings to this team is nearly as great as that of a Bonderman or Millwood. This is why it’s so easy to become intrigued with Bedard. This its why we get so excited at the possibility of him pitching behind Felix for a whole season.

Erik BedardS663.551.0$7.81.6
Jeremy BondermanS1794.581.0$9.72.0
Kevin MillwoodS2024.631.0$10.42.2

Looking at the length of time he does pitch gives us an idea of how much success he will bring to the team based on the level of production. You can use Fangraph fans, Bill James, Marcel, ZiPS and there are others out there as a projection system available.  I choose to use Marcel (simply because it had him projected with the highest ERA) but to each his own.

What this projection sheet shows is how many wins based on length and production Bedard could possibly add to the Mariners over a league average player (aka Luke French or David Pauley).

Then I took it a step further, since there is both the chance that Bedard could over as well as under produce, based off the Marcel projection, I incorporated that into the spreadsheet too.

So, beyond the jump is Erik Bedard, projected innings pitched, projected era and his WAR categorized by percentile. Enjoy!

Erik Bedard at the 120% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 73.

Erik BedardS2004.51$0.402.5
Erik BedardS1504.51$0.401.9
Erik BedardS1004.51$0.401.3
Erik BedardS504.51$0.400.6

Erik Bedard at the 110% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 73

Erik BedardS2004.11$0.403.4
Erik BedardS1504.11$0.402.6
Erik BedardS1004.11$0.401.7
Erik BedardS504.11$0.400.9

Erik Bedard at the 100% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 74

Erik BedardS2003.71$0.404.4
Erik BedardS1503.71$0.403.3
Erik BedardS1003.71$0.402.2
Erik BedardS503.71$0.401.1

Erik Bedard at the 90% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 75

Erik BedardS2003.31$0.405.4
Erik BedardS1503.31$0.404.1
Erik BedardS1003.31$0.402.7
Erik BedardS503.31$0.401.4

Erik Bedard at the 80% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 72 – 77

Erik BedardS20031$0.406.5
Erik BedardS15031$0.404.9
Erik BedardS10031$0.403.3
Erik BedardS5031$0.401.6

An Erik Bedard who pitches 50 innings at only 80% bedard capcity should still be worth nearly 1 win over 100% David Pauley pitching the same 50 innings. Regardless of how you feel about Erik Bedard that should at least give a tiny bit of hope that the Mariners could potentially pull out a .500 season. YAY, hope springs eternal!

As a side note I based Mariners win totals off my Mariners roster projection you can find here. This isn’t to spit in Keiths’ eye, as we have nearly identical projections, rather it’s just to give you the information behind the projection.