Something to Chew On

Erik Bedard will presumably be returning to the Mariners rotation for as long as he remains healthy.  Normally, I take the pessimistic approach to evaluating these sorts of injury-prone players, but for the purposes of this post, I won’t.

The current Seattle Mariners roster projects from somewhere from 76-82 wins, realistically.  Depending on the performances of Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, and Michael Pineda, the M’s could win less games or they could win more games.  These guys are what mainstream sports media would call “X-factors,” because they have yet to develop as Major League players.  The 2011 Mariners, in addition to their young, unproven players, have a “Y-factor.”  That would be Erik Bedard.

The only problem with Erik Bedard is that he can’t stay on the mound.  He does almost everything else well.  He makes hitters swing and miss.  He induces his fair share of groundballs.  He mixes his pitches extremely well.

Erik Bedard, 2006

• Games started: 33
• Strikeouts-per-9-innings: 7.84
• FIP: 3.59
• Wins Above a Replacement-level player: 5.0

Erik Bedard, 2007

• Games started: 28
• Strikeouts-per-9-innings: 10.93
• FIP: 3.19
• Wins Above a Replacement-level player: 5.4

Bedard, by anyone’s standards, was a phenomenal pitcher.  In the AL East.  Starting for the Orioles.  True, that was almost four years ago, but whenever Bedard has actually played since, he’s pitched well.  At full strength, he’s nasty.  Plus, it never hurt anyone to pitch in Safeco Field.

I’m not saying that you, reader, should run around and tell everyone you know that the Mariners are playoff contenders and that Erik Bedard is the second coming of Nolan Ryan.  Neither of those statements are true.  What I am saying, however, is that should Bedard start 25-30 games in 2011, he would be likely to produce somewhere around 4 WAR.  And that’s the difference between an 82-win team and an 86-win team.

It might not even not matter.  The M’s might otherwise flop entirely.  But keep in mind that Erik Bedard has the potential to stun the baseball world and provide a spark in an otherwise mediocre season for the M’s.