Projecting the 2010 Rotation

One of the biggest questions surrounding the 2010 Mariners is and will continue to be starting pitching. The free agent class for starters is terrible, and assuming neither Jarrod Washburn or Erik Bedard re-sign with Seattle, we’re going to have to build the rotation from within.

There’s really only one given, and that of course is Felix Hernandez. As long as he doesn’t get traded in the off-season (not going to happen), he’s easily got the #1 spot locked down. After that, it’s a bit of a blur. The pitcher’s that may be competing for spots are going to be:

Ian Snell

Ryan Rowland-Smith

Luke French

Brandon Morrow

Doug Fister

Carlos Silva

Jason Vargas

Garrett Olson

Nicholas Hill

Hill is a bit of a darkhorse, but he’s putting up excellent numbers with double A, and has been for quite some time. Take him out and you still have 8 pitchers competing for 4 spots. RRS is in. He’s looked good consistently since transitioning into a starter, and there’s no reason to think he won’t get a spot to start the 2010 season.

Ian Snell should also be a given. He has the best stuff of the whole group, and if he can improve his command over the off season and spring, he shouldn’t have any trouble getting into the rotation. Brandon Morrow is in the same boat – he has great stuff, and the way he’s been working efficiently and using his off speed pitches makes me think he will also have no problem earning a spot.

So, plug those three in, and you have 5 or 6 more guys battling it out for 1 spot in the rotation. I don’t think it’s going to be Olson – he doesn’t have good stuff and he doesn’t throw strikes. With Silva, I just don’t see him ever returning to pre-Mariners form, and I expect him to take over Miguel Batista’s mop up role in 2010.

So that leaves French, Fister, and Vargas. I’m still not convinced that Fister is for real, so there’s a decent chance he’ll fade and we won’t hear about him again for awhile. I don’t see that happening with either French or Vargas though. What I’ve been saying for awhile now, is that French is basically a young version of Jarrod Washburn – and I still believe that. So he’s going to continue benefiting from Safeco, but I’m not sure how he’ll do in Spring Training.

For Vargas it’s going to be all about command – primarily keeping the ball down. He’s demonstrated this season how awesome his changeup is, but he isn’t overpowering, so hitting his spots is going to be imperative. When the battles are over and the dust has cleared, I see our 2010 rotation looking like this:

1. Felix

2. RRS

3. Morrow

4. Snell

5. French

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