Hold On To Hope


After taking these last two games from Kansas City, the Mariners have pulled within eight games of the Angels, and within 6.5 games of the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card. The odds of us making the playoffs are still extremely low – Coolstandings puts us at 2.7% after yesterday’s game – but there’s no reason not to continue clinging to that tiny little bit of hope. It would take a mini miracle, and one of the most unlikely collapses since the ’95 Angels, but it is by no means impossible.

To force a one game playoff with the Angels, the Mariners would have to be eight games better than them, over the remaining 55 games. For example, if the angels went 30-25, the Mariners would need to go 38-17. When you look at it from that angle, it seems like an extremely daunting task, but that’s over simplifying it.

Look at it this way – the Mariners have gained two games in the standings over the last two days. Now it’s unlikely, and part of it isn’t under the Mariners control, but it’s entirely possible that the Angels could lose the next two games, and the Mariners could take their next two. Then, instead of needing to be eight games better than the Angels over 55 games, they’d need to be 6 games better than them over 53 games. Still, by no means an easy feat, but significantly less intimidating, and significantly more likely.

I am in no way, shape or form saying that I like our chances, but I’m not ready to give up just yet. The Angels appear to finally be coming back to Earth, and the Mariners are a better team now than they were a week ago. With Ian Snell and Luke French in the rotation instead of Jarrod Washburn and Garrett Olson, with Jack Wilson at short instead of Ronny Cedeno, and with Adrian Beltre at third base instead of Jack Hannahan, they are a much improved squad.

Are the WAR differences, generally speaking, enough to make up eight games? No, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. It’s going to take an Angels skid, and quite the Mariners hot streak, but crazier things have happened.

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