2 reasons why Mariners' Cal Raleigh may hit 60 HR again, and 2 why he may not

All in all, Cal Raleigh would probably say that he had a good year. He started the season by signing an extension worth $105 million, was one of the best players over the course of 162 games, and was a driving force behind Seattle's deepest postseason run in more than 20 years, posting a 1.081 OPS with five home runs. He has recently received several awards recognizing just how incredible he was and in order to truly be crowned the MVP, he'll need to wait just a little longer.

The biggest factor that elevated him to the next level was his power surge. That term isn't typically used to describe a player who totaled 91 home runs in his first three full seasons in the big leagues but when a player jumps from 34 home home runs to 60 in a single season, it seems appropriate.

The question then becomes: Is this level of power sustainable for someone with the defensive responsibilities of Raleigh? Potentially, but there's data to support both sides of the argument.

2025 saw him take big steps forward as a right-handed batter

We all know that Raleigh is a switch-hitter, but his results were slightly lopsided in 2024. He posted a .696 OPS from the right side and a .769 OPS from the left. He had a higher ISO (.261) as a righty than he did as a lefty (.199) but had an on-base percentage of just .251 while in the orthodox stance.

This year, he was significantly better as a righty, bringing his on-base percentage up to .351 while maintaining an impressive slugging percentage of .681 thanks to his 22 home runs in 205 plate appearances.

Cal Raleigh pulled the ball in the air more than (almost) anyone

The sport of baseball has evolved to place significant value on generating lift and launch angle, but only if you can use it effectively. One of the most productive batted ball events is a pulled fly ball, as these have by far the best results as per the the folks over at FanGraphs. No one benefited from this more than Raleigh, who pulled 38.4 percent of his batted balls in the air, nearly seven percent more than the next person (Spencer Torkelson, 31.8) and just shy of Isaac Paredes (38.5). He has always hit the ball hard but now he's allowing launch angle to carry the ball the extra distance needed to carry it into the stands.

To demonstrate how powerful a pulled fly ball can be, this was Cal Raleigh's longest home run of the year (448 feet) and the second-longest home run that he has hit in his career. It also happened to come on the same day that he broke the record for most home runs hit by a catcher in a single season.

He may have gotten just a little lucky with ballpark dimensions

One of the lovely and unique aspects of baseball is that there are not set dimensions for the outfield, meaning parks vary in shape and size across MLB. However, that also means that what ends up as a home run in one park may have been a harmless flyout in another. To try and reach some sort of consistent measure of home runs, Statcast tracks Expected Home Runs, or xHR, based on how many ballparks a home run would've gotten out.

Based on that metric, Cal Raleigh was expected to hit a "measly" 56.1 home runs. Of course, this still comfortably led the league and 56 home runs is nothing to sneeze at, but the purpose of this metric is to make future performance more predictable. Based on xHR, he could see enough of a dip in power next year to bring him below the 60 home run threshold, but not enough to make him any less scary at the plate.

Only two players in history have ever had multiple 60-homer seasons

Even the most prolific home run hitters struggled to repeat what Raleigh accomplished this year. Barry Bonds had seven seasons with 40-plus home runs but just one season with more than 50. Ken Griffey Jr. got to 56 twice but never got to 60. In fact, the only two players with more than one 60-home run season are Sammy Sosa (three) and Mark McGwire (two) and it's safe to say both of those players had a little extra help.

Ultimately, 60 home runs is an arbitrary threshold like 200 strikeouts, 100 RBI, or any other round number counting stat that we as fans love to gush over. While undeniably an impressive mark, Raleigh can still be a great player without repeating what he did this year. Whether he hits 50, 60, or somewhere in between, he's poised to be an integral part of this Seattle Mariners core for years to come and has a bright future ahead of him.