MLB Draft Thought: High School Draftees And Ages
One of the most beloved baseball meme’s currently out there is the “next market inefficiency”. Some are serious in their research; others take it as a simple joke. Things as bloodlines, players in Japan and many more obsecure factoids.
The more and more I think about the idea of market inefficiencies within the game we love, the sillier it seems to become. 10, 15 years ago there was a traditional mold in which everything was done. Now, while front offices and baseball experts lean into statistics, it’s not head long. They incorporate scouts opinions and incorporate as many different intelligent opinions as possible.
Just look at the Tonorto Blue Jays who increased their scouting department upon the arrival of Alex Anthopoulos. This is, in my opinion, in the same vein of thought in what Jack Zduriencik has done in the last year with the additions of Ted Simmons, Joe McIlvaine, Pete Vuckovich and even Roger Hansen.
The point is there is so much more effort being put into research and surrounding the organization with as many smart individuals as readily available that so-called market inefficiencies are near impossible to find.
That said there are two (part I and part II) super great article over at baseball prospectus that chronicles the idea that the younger the high school prospect the better chance they have to obtaining their value from their draft position.
The post itself functions on the idea that more and more scouting directors in the post money ball-era lean more to the college age players and older high school players who have “more polish”. Thus by doing so maybe be hurting their chances rather than helping.
It’s a super great article and while I don’t believe that there is a market inefficiency left in baseball, I would agree that in general more and more high school players are looked at by fans as being far too risky due to noted “success” rates vs. college players.
I’m not saying they are being passed over by scouting directors. I tend to believe that they certainly do their due diligence on all players available. Especially guys in the 1-to-100-or even 200 range, you gotta know all you can about them and I don’t doubt for a second that teams are putting in the effort.
But I certainly would like feedback on these theories. Do you as a fan get more excited by “X High School” prospect or “X College” prospect? Of course there is the usual caveat of age and projectability versus polish, but who would you rather draft? George Springer or Josh Bell? Interesting question.