Will a superstar's departure help the Mariners dominate an AL Rival?

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The Angels no longer have Shohei Ohtani on their roster, a big change. While he was a challenging opponent, I enjoyed watching him pitch and hit. Shohei Ohtani draws attention and distracts. The departure of Phil Nevin and his replacement by Ron Washington has been another big change for the Angels. Washington, a 10-year MLB infield player and a coach or manager for almost thirty years, will be the Halo's skipper for 2024.

The word from Angels' Spring Training is that there are good vibes. Additionally, there are about 47 fewer members of the media at Spring Training now that Ohtani has gone to the Dodgers, presumably with the media following in his wake. Since Ohtani’s presence did not help them get to the postseason, I do not anticipate much of a difference in the Angel's overall performance. The unknown factors (in addition to injuries and trades) are Ron Washington's contributions and whether Ohtani's absence will help the Angels' focus increase.

In 2023, the Mariners won eight out of 13 games with the Angels while the Angels won five.

Mariners vs Angels: Pitching Matchups

While the Angels and Mariners have brought in some new arms, many starters and relievers remain the same. I used Baseball Reference's statistics (Earned Runs and Innings Pitched) from 2023 and their projected stats for 2024 to arrive at these projections.

The Starting Rotation

The Mariners look to start with the five right-handed pitchers that were rotating in the second half of the 2023 season: Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo.

The Angels had a six-man rotation when Ohtani was pitching. Washington says that they will have a five-man rotation in 2024. I anticipate that these five will be LHP Reid Detmers, LHP Patrick Sandoval, LHP Tyler Anderson, RHP Griffin Canning, and RHP Chase Silseth. The Mariners starters ERA on the season was 3.89 while the Angels were at 4.47.

Relief Pitching

Meanwhile, the Mariners' cumulative bullpen ERA was 3.48 in 2023 while the Angels' cumulative ERA was 4.88.

Seattle traded several of their relief pitchers from 2023: Paul Sewald, Isaiah Campbell, Trevor Gott, and Justin Topa. We still have some great arms in Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Tayler Saucedo, Gabe Speier, and Trent Thornton. Austin Voth (a former Oriole) is also on the Seattle Depth Chart. Gregory Santos from the White Sox is seen as a major addition but has suffered an injury in Spring Training. There is also former Diamondback, Collin Snider, who is available. I believe that we will have a better idea of who will be in the bullpen after Spring Training.

The Angels added Puyallup native Adam Cimber (TOR), Luis Garcia (SDP), Jose Cisnero (DET), Carlos Espinosa (HOU), and Robert Stephenson (PIR). (The Angels made a three-year deal with Stephenson.)

Interestingly, Baseball Reference projected that the Angels' relief pitchers would improve and the Mariners' bullpen's performance would decline. I resist agreeing with that assessment.

Mariners vs Angels: Position Players / Batting

While the Mariners' utility players remain the same, there has been quite a bit of change in Seattle's expected starting lineup. For the cumulative statistics, I used Baseball Reference's 2023 statistics of "at-bats" and "hits" to calculate the cumulative batting average. I did the same with BR's projected 2024 data.

Starting Lineup

Cal Raleigh, Ty France, J.P. Crawford, and Julio Rodriguez are the only players in the starting lineup still with the Mariners from last year. I anticipate that 2nd base will go to Jorge Polanco. Third base may be manned by Josh Rojas, Luis Urias, Dylan Moore, or a platoon of these players. Luke Raley will take left field and Mitch Haniger will take right field. Mitch Garver will be the designated hitter.

The Halos' likely starting lineup has not changed significantly, personnel-wise: Logan O'Hoppe replaces Matt Thaiss as catcher; Nolan Schanuell at first base; Brandon Drury at second base; Anthony Rendon replaces Zach Neto at third base; Luis Rengifo replaces Anthony Rendon at shortstop; Taylor Ward in left field; Mike Trout in center field; and Jake Marisnick replaces Hunter Renfroe in right field. The Depth Chart lists Brandon Drury as DH but he cannot have multiple responsibilities simultaneously.

Several of the Angels' starting players had serious injuries: a broken leg, fractured facial bones, and a ruptured tendon. Taylor Ward who was HBP in the face is back. It appears that the others will be able to start the season with the team.

Substitute and Utility Players

I mentally put Josh Rojas on third base, making Moore and Urias utility players for the sake of these statistics. Other players include Sam Haggerty and Dominic Canzone. The Angles list Matt Thaiss, Michael Stefanic, Zach Neto, Kyren Paris, and Jo Adell as substitutes or utility players.

At first glance, Shohei's departure might seem to be a total loss, but he is also a distraction. The Angels and their opponents may focus better in the coming year on the rest of the game, This might help the Angels in some circumstances and their rivals in others. I look forward to the Mariners keeping or improving their win-loss record against the Angels. Go Mariners!

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