What we've learned so far from the Mariners offseason 

So…how about that off-season huh? About five minutes after the Seattle Mariners finally relented after an 18 inning heavyweight battle against the Houston Astros, the fans of the Mariners turned their eyes toward 2023. We all had our dreams and visions of how Seattle was going to make the leap, end the Astros evil empire, and bring a world series to Seattle.

As we head into the holiday season, when transactions naturally begin to slow down, the vibes in Mariners Land are closer to pitchforks and civil war than season’s greeting and the happy holiday spirit. Kinda weird for a team that appears to be at the dawn of a new and exciting era of Mariners baseball.

What the heck is going on? Let's recap the offseason so far, where Seattle may be going, and how we can possibly process this weird offseason. 

The Trades 

Teoscar Hernandez 

In classic Jerry Dipoto fashion, he kicked off the MLB hot stove on November 16th by acquiring all-star right fielder Teoscar Hernandez from Toronto in exchange for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko.

Maybe it was because the offseason was so early, but I don't think this trade was or has been talked about enough. I believe this trade could potentially be up there with some of the best trades of the Dipoto era. It was pretty clear that Mitch Haniger was no longer going to be a Seattle Mariner, and to acquire a player that has been both more available, and simply a better player.

Since 2020, Hernandez has made an all-star game, won two silver slugger awards, and carries an OPS+ of 129 over the past two seasons. He may not be a great defensive outfielder, but he has an exceptional arm, mitigating some potential loss with Haniger. Most importantly, we saw Hernandez light up the Seattle Mariners in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, smashing two monster home runs. He'll be a huge addition to the club, and hopefully, there's a deal that makes sense going forward for the soon to be free agent.

I loved this trade, and as the offseason has continued, I continue to love it more and more.

Kolten Wong

I'll be honest, I really wanted to be in on this special shortstop market, but we'll talk about that later. On December 2nd, those hopes were put to rest when Seattle traded away Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro for 2nd baseman Kolten Wong.

I felt pretty meh on this trade initially. I like Wong, he's a good veteran player that has shown to be a decent hitter and a good to great defender. He should be a nice upgrade at 2nd base, and can be a good platoon for Dylan Moore. The fact that this trade has made 2nd base no longer a black hole is good. The fact that this trade removed Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro from the Mariners is great.

The Toro trade was always going to leave a bad taste to Mariners fans. The timing, the coldness, unless Toro was going to be a stud, the deal was destined to be ridiculed. Toro had a hot start when he arrived, before turning into one of the worst hitters in all of baseball. He was a waste of a roster spot, and his acquisition should go down as one of the worst trades of the Dipoto era.

The Jesse Winker trade was great in theory, and it technically did work out thanks to Eugenio Suarez, but the Winker portion was a disaster. One of the best hitters in the NL came to Seattle and never could get the back going. I will have nightmares of his lazy swings that lead to infield popouts. The guy looked like he was swinging an axe for the first time in his life.

His strength, and work ethic were a big point of contention, as he reportedly became a locker room cancer. There's no roam on this ship for a guy that can't field, hit, or get along with people.

This trade may not be the big acquisition I wanted, but Seattle got better on the field and in the locker room.

Free agency…what free agency?

Alright, enough beating around the bush, let's talk about the lightning rod part of this offseason…free agency. This article is not to argue with you or tell you what to think. I'm just telling you my thoughts on what we've seen and heard from this season.

When one of the more intriguing free agent groups became available after a fantastic season that showed the Mariners were really good, but not at the Astros level, fans were hopeful. Then, we saw stars begin to sign. Rangers get deGrom, Judge teases the Giants before returning to the Bronx, which brought Correa to the Bay. One by one these mega stars with their mega contracts were swallowed up, and Seattle remained silent.

Some argue that the Mariners were being cheap, some argued that they were not going to give someone so many years, paying someone close to $30 million in their forties. It seemed like Seattle was still a legitimate threat to sign a major free agent.

On December 1st, Dipoto was doing his weekly radio spot on Brock and Salk when he was asked about signing free agents and how that affects his organization's philosophy. We heard Dipoto talk about being a draft development and trading organization. He spoke about the Mariners being a middle-of-the-pack payroll in the league that has consistently been in the top 10 when competitive. We also heard about the now infamous 2026 crest that Dipoto is focused on.

I don't necessarily hate the vision, but Mariners fans should be frustrated. The Mariners did have a respectable payroll when they tried to make the playoffs with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager. They chose to take a step back, doing a mini rebuild and shedding almost all of their salary.

This decision was the correct path, as the Mariners have as bright a future as anyone. This decision also meant sitting out of free agency since 2018. That's a lot of money you can legitimately say Seattle ownership has saved. People will say that big free agents, specifically free-agent bats, don't interest Dipoto, but I beg to differ. Last offseason, after barely missing the playoffs, Dipoto clearly said on that same radio show that the Mariners were going big game hunting for a bat.

I asked this question back in the spring, and I ask it again, where did that money go or the desire to big game hunt? We know they had a sizable offer out for Trevor Story last year. This year's crop of SS were all better than Story, yet no offer?

I wouldn't be so upset, but then a week later, Dipoto was pushed again about budget and payroll, and responded in a much more assertive and annoyed way than we've heard from him. He talked once again about the team's spending and how they've essentially already spent their money, spending it on their people. 

Spending money on your people is not a bad decision, but that's not something to brag about Jerry. Twenty-eight of the thirty teams in baseball would make the same no-brainer deals that Julio and Castillo got. To not think that you can go out and sign a big star because you're worried about 2026 and also your budget right now, is beyond disappointing.

You never know when exactly your door will open, and it almost always closes sooner than you think. The present looks good for Seattle, and whether you are open to or against a mega deal, adding a star could really raise Seattle's potential today and tomorrow.

Could a major trade be next?

Despite many's frustrations about the lack of spending by ownership, the Mariners have gotten better this offseason. The upgrades at RF and 2B can't be forgotten. Seattle, in my opinion, has clearly jumped into the same tier as the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians of the AL, teams with legitimate aspirations for an American League championship. The moves we've seen so far shouldn't be the most significant moves of an offseason when you're trying to win the American League…so what happens next?

I think Seattle wants to add a star, but they are specific about what they want. Dipoto believes in building through trades, that is one of his core identities. While I may disagree with the extreme imbalance between trades acquisitions to free agent acquisitions, we have seen from trades with the Padres and Reds how much Seattle can get better without big bags of money being thrown down in December. If there is an option still on the table this offseason to shake up the power structure in the American League, Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds is that piece.

As many of you know, Reynolds has requested a trade from the Pirates. Tired of losing and being low-balled in extension talks, Reynolds wants out and you can't really blame him. The soon to be 28 year old was an all-star in 2021 and posted an OPS+ of 126 and 145 the past two years. He has good speed, 25+ homer power, and a career slash line of .281/.361/.481. Reynolds did not have the best year in center field, but a move to left could bring him back up to an above-average defender.

If he was a free agent, Reynolds would likely be one of the two or three best offensive options available. With three years left on his deal, the price tag to acquire him is likely very high. As each day goes by, we continue to see more and more potential options signed elsewhere. I consider this a good thing for those in the trade for Bryan Reynolds camp. He's likely going to cost you multiple high-level prospects, as well as Jarred Kelenic. The price will be steep, but as we move further along this offseason, I believe more and more that the Mariners will be one of the most aggressive suitors for his services.

Is Seattle loading up for the Ohtani sweepstakes?

While Bryan Reynolds would be a dramatic upgrade in left field for the Mariners, I believe Dipoto's biggest pursuit in free agency will wait until next offseason when Shohei Ohtani becomes available. 

Signing Ohtani would absolutely change the trajectory of Seattle. You're talking about adding a top 10 hitter and a top 5 pitcher in the American League to the Mariners. Ohtani and Julio uniting could be a legitimate dynasty-level move by Seattle, as their overall roster is in a much better place than what Ohtani and Mike Trout have been asked to carry. We're talking about the best player in baseball right now, teaming up with the most prominent rising star in baseball. It's not inconceivable that Seattle will have the two best players in baseball by 2024.

We know Dipoto was close to signing Ohtani in 2018, as many had Seattle as the favorite before the Angels pulled the ultimate shocker. Some of those concerns reportedly had to do with the pressure of playing under Ichiro's shadow. Fast forward a few years, and I don't think that is something Ohtani would have to be concerned about anymore. 

Dipoto and general manager Juston Hollander would be embarking on a second chance to bring Ohtani to the Mariners. The outlook in Seattle has changed dramatically, but the question from 2018 remains…can Mariners leadership lock up a premier free agent? 

It is a dangerous game for them to play. If they are public about chasing Ohtani, and fail again, fans will have the right to question whether this regime is the right crew to lead the Mariners to glory in the prime years of Julio Rodriguez. It is a risky move to put all your eggs in the most valuable basket in baseball history. His starting asking price will likely be $50 million a year, and you know the Dodgers and Mets will be prepared to bid for his services.