What we've learned so far from the Mariners offseason 

Free agency…what free agency?

Alright, enough beating around the bush, let's talk about the lightning rod part of this offseason…free agency. This article is not to argue with you or tell you what to think. I'm just telling you my thoughts on what we've seen and heard from this season.

When one of the more intriguing free agent groups became available after a fantastic season that showed the Mariners were really good, but not at the Astros level, fans were hopeful. Then, we saw stars begin to sign. Rangers get deGrom, Judge teases the Giants before returning to the Bronx, which brought Correa to the Bay. One by one these mega stars with their mega contracts were swallowed up, and Seattle remained silent.

Some argue that the Mariners were being cheap, some argued that they were not going to give someone so many years, paying someone close to $30 million in their forties. It seemed like Seattle was still a legitimate threat to sign a major free agent.

On December 1st, Dipoto was doing his weekly radio spot on Brock and Salk when he was asked about signing free agents and how that affects his organization's philosophy. We heard Dipoto talk about being a draft development and trading organization. He spoke about the Mariners being a middle-of-the-pack payroll in the league that has consistently been in the top 10 when competitive. We also heard about the now infamous 2026 crest that Dipoto is focused on.

I don't necessarily hate the vision, but Mariners fans should be frustrated. The Mariners did have a respectable payroll when they tried to make the playoffs with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager. They chose to take a step back, doing a mini rebuild and shedding almost all of their salary.

This decision was the correct path, as the Mariners have as bright a future as anyone. This decision also meant sitting out of free agency since 2018. That's a lot of money you can legitimately say Seattle ownership has saved. People will say that big free agents, specifically free-agent bats, don't interest Dipoto, but I beg to differ. Last offseason, after barely missing the playoffs, Dipoto clearly said on that same radio show that the Mariners were going big game hunting for a bat.

I asked this question back in the spring, and I ask it again, where did that money go or the desire to big game hunt? We know they had a sizable offer out for Trevor Story last year. This year's crop of SS were all better than Story, yet no offer?

I wouldn't be so upset, but then a week later, Dipoto was pushed again about budget and payroll, and responded in a much more assertive and annoyed way than we've heard from him. He talked once again about the team's spending and how they've essentially already spent their money, spending it on their people. 

Spending money on your people is not a bad decision, but that's not something to brag about Jerry. Twenty-eight of the thirty teams in baseball would make the same no-brainer deals that Julio and Castillo got. To not think that you can go out and sign a big star because you're worried about 2026 and also your budget right now, is beyond disappointing.

You never know when exactly your door will open, and it almost always closes sooner than you think. The present looks good for Seattle, and whether you are open to or against a mega deal, adding a star could really raise Seattle's potential today and tomorrow.

Could a major trade be next?

Despite many's frustrations about the lack of spending by ownership, the Mariners have gotten better this offseason. The upgrades at RF and 2B can't be forgotten. Seattle, in my opinion, has clearly jumped into the same tier as the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians of the AL, teams with legitimate aspirations for an American League championship. The moves we've seen so far shouldn't be the most significant moves of an offseason when you're trying to win the American League…so what happens next?

I think Seattle wants to add a star, but they are specific about what they want. Dipoto believes in building through trades, that is one of his core identities. While I may disagree with the extreme imbalance between trades acquisitions to free agent acquisitions, we have seen from trades with the Padres and Reds how much Seattle can get better without big bags of money being thrown down in December. If there is an option still on the table this offseason to shake up the power structure in the American League, Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds is that piece.

As many of you know, Reynolds has requested a trade from the Pirates. Tired of losing and being low-balled in extension talks, Reynolds wants out and you can't really blame him. The soon to be 28 year old was an all-star in 2021 and posted an OPS+ of 126 and 145 the past two years. He has good speed, 25+ homer power, and a career slash line of .281/.361/.481. Reynolds did not have the best year in center field, but a move to left could bring him back up to an above-average defender.

If he was a free agent, Reynolds would likely be one of the two or three best offensive options available. With three years left on his deal, the price tag to acquire him is likely very high. As each day goes by, we continue to see more and more potential options signed elsewhere. I consider this a good thing for those in the trade for Bryan Reynolds camp. He's likely going to cost you multiple high-level prospects, as well as Jarred Kelenic. The price will be steep, but as we move further along this offseason, I believe more and more that the Mariners will be one of the most aggressive suitors for his services.

Is Seattle loading up for the Ohtani sweepstakes?

While Bryan Reynolds would be a dramatic upgrade in left field for the Mariners, I believe Dipoto's biggest pursuit in free agency will wait until next offseason when Shohei Ohtani becomes available. 

Signing Ohtani would absolutely change the trajectory of Seattle. You're talking about adding a top 10 hitter and a top 5 pitcher in the American League to the Mariners. Ohtani and Julio uniting could be a legitimate dynasty-level move by Seattle, as their overall roster is in a much better place than what Ohtani and Mike Trout have been asked to carry. We're talking about the best player in baseball right now, teaming up with the most prominent rising star in baseball. It's not inconceivable that Seattle will have the two best players in baseball by 2024.

We know Dipoto was close to signing Ohtani in 2018, as many had Seattle as the favorite before the Angels pulled the ultimate shocker. Some of those concerns reportedly had to do with the pressure of playing under Ichiro's shadow. Fast forward a few years, and I don't think that is something Ohtani would have to be concerned about anymore. 

Dipoto and general manager Juston Hollander would be embarking on a second chance to bring Ohtani to the Mariners. The outlook in Seattle has changed dramatically, but the question from 2018 remains…can Mariners leadership lock up a premier free agent? 

It is a dangerous game for them to play. If they are public about chasing Ohtani, and fail again, fans will have the right to question whether this regime is the right crew to lead the Mariners to glory in the prime years of Julio Rodriguez. It is a risky move to put all your eggs in the most valuable basket in baseball history. His starting asking price will likely be $50 million a year, and you know the Dodgers and Mets will be prepared to bid for his services.

What about now?

While the Shohei Ohtani discourse will likely cloud the 2023 baseball season for numerous teams, Seattle still needs to focus on trying to overtake the Astros in 2023. 

We're not sure what the budget looks like right now for Seattle, but Dipoto has spoken numerous times about looking for a bat or two. As of right now, it looks like Seattle has a Jarred Kelenic sized question in left field, a question at DH, and a left-handed hole in the bullpen. 

Some options still remain, but those pieces are dwindling. The Mariners have gotten better, but are still too far away from the Astros. A trade for a star bat would be awesome, no doubt, but how much longer can the Mariners pillage their farm without repercussions?

Ownership and management can make a statement and sign good hitters like Seattle native Michael Conforto, Oregon native Brandon Drury, or a veteran hitter like Wil Myers. They can sign a legitimate bullpen piece like Andrew Chafin. These are not moves to appease a disgruntled fan base or moves that will ruin the "crest". These are legitimate upgrades, in the short term, that can help Seattle compete for a championship.

It has been an uneven and odd offseason to say the least. I continue to believe that this franchise wants to win, they're just as specific and deliberate as any team in the league. 

The dream of dramatic improvement remains alive, but the avenues continue to fade as we head into the new year.