What a Mariners and Astros mega-trade could look like between AL West rivals

The 2024 Seattle Mariners are far from perfect, but they sure are sitting pretty as they make a trip out to Florida to play the Marlins. The M's are sitting at 44-33 heading into Friday with an eight-game lead over the Houston Astros. With over an 85% chance to make the postseason, President Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander are in a good spot to reach the playoffs for only the second time in 23 years, but there is work to be done if the ballclub wants to make some noise. 

Despite an impressive record (on pace for 94 wins), the Mariners only have a +11 run differential and their offensive numbers are concerning to say the least. The team is currently 28th in average, 26th in on base percentage, and 23rd in slugging. Their offense currently doesn’t have a player with an OPS+ higher than 120. Historically, you need 3 or more hitters with an OPS+ higher than 120 if you ever want to see your club in a League Championship Series.

As incredible as the starting pitching has been and as resilient as the bullpen has performed, Dipoto and Hollander have to know that if they truly want to hang more than just a division title banner, to be able to win a five or seven game playoff series with the Yankees, Orioles, or Guardians, they’re gonna need to go all in. There’s a balance to this, as a team with a loaded farm system, a frustrating budget, and leadership in a contract year. This team is also loaded with young talent, and a successful power move could make Seattle a legitimate World Series contender for multiple years, a place we all know the Mariners have never been to. 

In part one of our “All-In” series, we look to our hated rivals in Houston for a chance to rock the baseball world, and get to the Fall Classic. 

All-In: Mariners trade for Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander

Kyle Tucker: baseball's best kept secret 

Trading at the deadline within your division is a pretty rare deal, and while the M’s and Astros have a history of making deals, this one would definitely take the cake. Seattle currently has the Astros on the ropes in the division, a place Houston has never experienced since moving over to the AL West. While Houston appears to be facing the end of an era, that doesn’t mean they will go quietly. 

In their final 25 games before the all-star break, the Astros only have six games versus teams with a record currently above .500. They will have to face the hot Mets in New York, visit a desperate Toronto squad, and finish the first half against the Rangers. After the break, the Astros will be in Seattle for a critical series. By July 21st, it should be clear whether the Astros are cooked, or going to fight for a playoff spot. While their team has been extremely disappointing, that doesn’t mean it lacks star power which may become available if the ship is indeed sinking. 

The most valuable name is Kyle Tucker. The 27-year-old right fielder is going to be a free agent after next season, and there may not be a player more likely to bring back real talent than Tucker, and for good reason. The two-time all-star with a gold glove and Silver Slugger award is in the midst of his best season yet. Tucker is currently slashing .266/.395/.584 with 19 home runs and an OPS+ of 178. His OBP, SLG, and HR rank 6th, 6th, and 4th in all of baseball. When you combine his defensive skill set, Tucker is arguably one of the top five offensive players in baseball right now, but the Astros stain definitely keeps his stardom from shining. 

With Tucker’s free agency on the horizon and the rumors that owner Jim Crane is starting to crack down on the length of contracts, it feels like the Astros could look at moving him, if they believe this is the end of their run. 

If Houston wants to get back quickly, without committing massive amounts of years and money to Tucker (will be turning 30 around the time of his massive free agent deal), then collecting some big prospect haul, and building around Yordan Alvarez, may be the best way back for Houston.

What would it cost?

A lot! When you're talking about making a deal within your division, and one of this magnitude, the Mariners will have to relinquish some of those prized prospects. Most deals involving a guy like Tucker will involve prospects, and the Mariners have plenty of offensive bats to give Houston, but it feels like if Houston is going to risk watching Tucker crush them for 1.5 to multiple years in Seattle, they may want a little more than the average team. This is where the conversation about Verlander comes into play.

In a proposed mega deal, Seattle will be acquiring both Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander, in exchange for starting pitcher Bryce Miller, #2 prospect C Harry Ford and #9 prospect Michael Arroyo.

You won't see many trades from myself or anyone that has the Mariners giving up a 25-year-old starting pitcher with Miller's stuff, and who won't be a free agent until 2030. He's the type of potential star that you only trade if you're getting a true game-changer. 

Harry Ford is a top 50-100 prospect in baseball and could be a real valuable piece to the franchise for years to come, likely starting next season. Michael Arroyo is a forgotten name who still has legit trade juice and potential to be something in the bigs.

 You don't give up all this talent unless you are walking away feeling like you're the best team in the American League. Houston can provide this type of deal.

If you're Houston, I don't think you entertain such a massive trade unless you get two key things: controllable talent, a new face of the franchise that can help now and will be a part of your next hopeful championship push. The Mariners can provide that for Houston.

The financial commitment

This is a way for Houston to potentially find an ace, and reload their farm, while also getting off the potentially large contracts that Tucker and Verlander can carry. 

If a deal is struck, the Mariners would likely be taking on around $6 million left on Tucker’s contract, and $11 million on Verlander's (Mets ate half of his salary when they traded him back to Houston last year). While the $17 million in added salary for two stars doesn't seem crazy, you never know with management.

The numbers get a bit on the high end next year, as Tucker will likely make well over $20 million in his final year of arbitration, while Verlander will have a $35 million dollar player option. That's a steep financial commitment, but it's very possible Verlander could walk away, and both deals are in the short term, off the books after 2025.

If Verlander sticks around, that's expensive, but also great for the team and fanbase. For Tucker, you're getting 1.5 years to sell him on the team and the city of Seattle, why Julio Rodriguez and the pitching of this team will be the best place for him to be happy and why winning here will help become a legend.

It's also important to remember that in this deal, you're gonna see a rise in merchandise sales, and you're looking at extra sellouts in both the regular season, and potentially playoffs. This is the type of trade where you're expecting at least ten extra home playoff games over the next two seasons. That's real revenue right there that's only been felt one time since 2001.

The potential for glory 

In the present, it would send a clear shockwave to not just the team and fanbase, but all of baseball, that the Mariners have officially arrived. They don't just want a division title, they want to get to the World Series and win the whole damn thing. Losing the future of Miller, Ford, and Arroyo will sting in the long run, but what Tucker and Verlander can add today is immeasurable.

A dynamic duo of Tucker and Julio, both at the plate and in the field, massively improves the Seattle Mariners. That's the type of duo that won't back down to Soto and Judge, or Gunnar and Adley. Tucker in the two-hole brings out the best in Julio and is the kind of player that could get these offensive rankings from the high twenties to the high teens, which is really all that is needed with their pitching.

Speaking of pitching, who starts in a potential playoff series? You could give the ball to Justin Verlander, one of the greatest playoff performers of all time. Or you could give it to Luis Castillo or George Kirby, who both looked magnificent in 2022 in October. Don't forget that the two best pitchers on the team currently are Bryan Woo and Logan Gilbert! 

The options are endless and overflowing with talent. The Mariners would have the horses and the experience to attack whoever stood in their way in October, while riding the bats of Tucker and Julio.

The best part of this deal? You get two cracks at it, and you're not destroying your future. Even if Verlander retires, or Tucker leaves in free agency, you still have one of the best rotations in baseball and one of the best farms still. 

Go all in, end the Astros and go win the World Series.