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Two Mariners Statistically Due For a Comeback
Who are some players that might return to sharper form in 2024?
Like every sport, luck plays a big role in baseball. With new statistics like BABIP, xwOBA, and FIP, analysts try to see how much of a given player's actually recorded stats were deserved and how many were due to good or bad rolls of the dice. Who are some Mariners that might see their fortune turn around for the better?
Ty France
France had a disappointing year following his first All-Star appearance in 2022. After posting a 125 OPS+, he spent this year turning in below-average numbers, slashing .250/.337/.366 for a 99 OPS+. His most significant regression was found in his slugging percentage which decreased by .070 year over year. Since slugging percentage is usually associated with power at the plate, it would make sense for his exit velocity and barrel rates to have decreased as well. Reality, however, tells a different story. Here are a few key power statistics and how they changed from 2022 to 2023.
2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|
Average Exit Velocity | 87.6 mph | 87.5 mph |
Barrel Rate | 5.4% | 6.8% |
Hard Hit Rate | 36.8% | 38.6% |
Intrinsically, his batted ball data was actually slightly better. Hard hit rate measures the amount of batted balls that have an exit velocity of 95 mph or more, while barrel rate also takes into account ideal launch angle. France actually improved slightly in both areas and saw a negligible impact in exit velocity.
This shows in his expected stats, which were significantly better than his actual numbers.
2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|
BA | .274 | .250 |
xBA | .262 | .270 |
SLG | .436 | .366 |
xSLG | .397 | .420 |
If you take the different in expected statistics and factor them into his OPS (it doesn't translate perfectly because of the differences in how BA and OBP are calculated), you'd get an OPS of .777, more in line with his realized 2022 numbers.
It's much harder to diagnose the cause of the problem or why exactly his luck seemed to be so rotten, but it should at least give fans hope that France's can bring things back. With extra time being spent at Driveline Baseball in the offseason, he may even bounce back to an OPS >.800 like he recorded in 2021. At the very least, he'll continue to put his body on the line and lead the league in hit-by-pitches.
Gabe Speier
An underrated lefty in the bullpen, Speier had the third most innings pitched out of any relievers on the team in 2023. He was also one of just two lefties on the team after Marco Gonzales ended his season prematurely due to injury. Over 54 ⅔ innings, he posted a 3.79 ERA and a 1.061 WHIP, solid numbers but they could've been even better.
He put up excellent percentile numbers, placing in the top 11% of the league in chase, strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates. In fact, his chase rate of 39.7% was the highest in the league among qualified pitchers. He was held back by below-average barrel and hard-hit rates but there are some signs that he could see a bump in performance in 2024.
First, he had an xERA of 3.50, slightly better than his actual ERA. Second of all, he had a FIP of 3.35. These two figures try to serve as more accurate measurements of a pitcher's performance, with FIP more specifically gauging a player's ability to limit the three true outcomes and xERA also factors in quality of contact for all batted balls.
While his barrel and hard-hit rates were rough, his average exit velocity was just 88.5 mph, which leads me to believe that in any given at-bat, he either gave up extremely hard contact or extremely soft contact. Out of 47 total hits, seven were doubles and seven were home runs. His sinker in particular had a high slugging percentage against of .439. A slight change in pitch usage may do him well as despite being just his third-most used pitch in 2023, his four-seam fastball had an excellent batting average against of .128 and a run value of six.
The Mariners have lost several key arms this offseason, namely Justin Topa and Prelander Berroa, but with the addition of Gregory Santos and potential improved year from Speier, Seattle's bullpen will continue to be one of the best in baseball.