The Mariners Aren't Out of the Shohei Sweepstakes Just Yet

As of the writing of this article, DraftKings is setting the odds that Ohtani signs with the Mariners at +2000, astronomically low chances and only slightly better than the Minnesota Twins, who have odds of +2500. This might make fans pretty sad but the likelihood might be higher than the oddsmakers think.

When most players are considering where they want to sign their first long-term deal, what's often discussed most are the monetary terms: total value and average annual value. For Shohei Ohtani, things are a little different. Based on his past decisions, money has never been his primary concern.

A prime example of this was his decision to come to MLB at the age of 23, severely limiting his earnings because of the posting agreement with NPB which disincentivizes players to come to the US before the age of 25. Although his career earnings for his first three seasons totaled just <$1.5 million, he signed a deal with the Angels solely to work toward his goal of being the first two-way MLB player in modern history.

So if Ohtani doesn't care about the money, what other factors is he considering and why do they help Seattle's candidacy as one of his landing spots?

Location, Location, Location

Despite Ohtani and his team stating that he isn't married to staying on the West Coast, it's still an important factor for him. When courting suitors for his initial MLB deal, Ohtani's location preference was chalked up to him wanting to be closer to Japan. More details have come out about how living on the West Coast also allows him to have more private personal life, an impossibility in cities with ruthless media like New York and Boston.

When asked about his thoughts on Seattle as a city during the All-Star break, Ohtani had positive thoughts, expressing his appreciation and commenting that he actually spent offseason time in the area.

Hopefully he as little to no qualms with overcast weather and occasional minor earthquakes.

Rich History of Signing Japanese Players

Ichiro Suzuki. Kazuhiro Sasaki. Yusei Kikuchi. Hisashi Iwakuma. Munenori Kawasaki. The list of Japanese players that started in Seattle or spent a significant portion of their major league careers with the Mariners is extensive. Ichiro is still involved with the team to this day, taking batting practice and shagging fly fly balls while in full uniform. He might be the Mariners' secret weapon in convincing Ohtani to sign a deal. Munenori Kawasaki cited the opportunity to play with Ichiro as one of the main reasons he decided to sign a minor league deal with the team.

Ohtani has publicly demonstrated his admiration of Ichiro as one of the first and most successful Japanese superstars in MLB. His presence and continued involvement with the team could be an important key differentiator from other highly-competitive destinations, such as the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.

Positional Availability

An interesting story by Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times was published in 2018 that detailed Ohtani's first meeting with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Because this was prior to the implementation of the universal DH rule, Ohtani would only be able to hit on the days that he pitched, defeating the purpose of being a two-way player and eliminating any chance of him signing with a National League team at the time.

For many of the teams that are in contention for the Shohei sweepstakes, many of them already have a crowded rotations and lineups. Obviously, Shohei would have no problem finding a spot but it would inevitably push out two players and create waste on a team's payroll. For example, the Astros have room in the back of their starting rotation but Ohtani's presence as a DH would force Yordan Alvarez into the outfield, something that could create a defensive liability akin to Kyle Schwarber's -21 defensive runs saved this year.

The Mariners honestly haven't had a consistently productive designated hitter since Edgar Martinez hung up his cleats in 2004 and definitely have room in their starting rotation. At worst, the Mariners would cut loose a couple of bad contracts and trade away their existing pitching talent to acquire more prospects to bolster the farm for the future.