The Mariners Aren't Out of the Shohei Sweepstakes Just Yet

As of the writing of this article, DraftKings is setting the odds that Ohtani signs with the Mariners at +2000, astronomically low chances and only slightly better than the Minnesota Twins, who have odds of +2500. This might make fans pretty sad but the likelihood might be higher than the oddsmakers think.

When most players are considering where they want to sign their first long-term deal, what's often discussed most are the monetary terms: total value and average annual value. For Shohei Ohtani, things are a little different. Based on his past decisions, money has never been his primary concern.

A prime example of this was his decision to come to MLB at the age of 23, severely limiting his earnings because of the posting agreement with NPB which disincentivizes players to come to the US before the age of 25. Although his career earnings for his first three seasons totaled just <$1.5 million, he signed a deal with the Angels solely to work toward his goal of being the first two-way MLB player in modern history.

So if Ohtani doesn't care about the money, what other factors is he considering and why do they help Seattle's candidacy as one of his landing spots?

Location, Location, Location

Despite Ohtani and his team stating that he isn't married to staying on the West Coast, it's still an important factor for him. When courting suitors for his initial MLB deal, Ohtani's location preference was chalked up to him wanting to be closer to Japan. More details have come out about how living on the West Coast also allows him to have more private personal life, an impossibility in cities with ruthless media like New York and Boston.

When asked about his thoughts on Seattle as a city during the All-Star break, Ohtani had positive thoughts, expressing his appreciation and commenting that he actually spent offseason time in the area.

Hopefully he as little to no qualms with overcast weather and occasional minor earthquakes.

Positional Availability

An interesting story by Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times was published in 2018 that detailed Ohtani's first meeting with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Because this was prior to the implementation of the universal DH rule, Ohtani would only be able to hit on the days that he pitched, defeating the purpose of being a two-way player and eliminating any chance of him signing with a National League team at the time.

For many of the teams that are in contention for the Shohei sweepstakes, many of them already have a crowded rotations and lineups. Obviously, Shohei would have no problem finding a spot but it would inevitably push out two players and create waste on a team's payroll. For example, the Astros have room in the back of their starting rotation but Ohtani's presence as a DH would force Yordan Alvarez into the outfield, something that could create a defensive liability akin to Kyle Schwarber's -21 defensive runs saved this year.

The Mariners honestly haven't had a consistently productive designated hitter since Edgar Martinez hung up his cleats in 2004 and definitely have room in their starting rotation. At worst, the Mariners would cut loose a couple of bad contracts and trade away their existing pitching talent to acquire more prospects to bolster the farm for the future.

Winning Culture & Upwards Trajectory

This is probably where some of the other contestants have Seattle beat. Still one of the few teams to have never won a World Series and the only team to never have even made it to the main event, the Mariners don't exactly have the rich history of winning that people might think Ohtani is seeking.

However, what Seattle might have more of than others is potential. Despite Jerry Dipoto's depressing comments about the allure of winning "54% of games," it does seem that the front office has been more aggresive over the past few years when it comes to acquiring and retaining talent than before. Julio Rodriguez's contract extension is a a great example. Committing to a 12-year, $209 million contract this early into a player's career was a bold move but it was clearly the correct one giving how he's performed these past two seasons.

The purse strings are still a bit tighter than most fans would hope but there's evidence that they'd come loose for the right names. Luis Castillo signed a five-year, $108 million contract and while it's been a disappointing deal thus far, Robbie Ray was signed for $115 million over five years following his Cy Young campaign in 2021.

As stated earlier, money is not the primary concern on Ohtani's mind, but if management wants to commit to building a solid team around him, it might be enough for him to take a less-lucrative deal. If that ends up being the case, Seattle might be planning a World Series parade sooner rather than later.