The Athletic ranked starting pitchers from "just a guy" to "Inner Circle", where did the Mariners come in?

The season is almost here, but that hasn't stopped some of the major publications around the world of baseball from coming out with rankings. The latest one to come out is from The Athletic, and they look at things a little differently. We've seen rankings for starting pitching, but that's usually as a whole. They had 20 different people vote, with voters giving out votes that you may be familiar with when thinking about a starting rotation.

They gave votes to pitchers throughout baseball for where they think they slot in a rotation. A #5 gets a point, #4 gets 2, #3 gets 3, #2 gets 4, and #1 gets 5. An inner circle guy, a true ace, would earn 100 points (20 votes times 5 from each). They went through and totaled up the votes for 70 entrants, and ended up listing the top 50 guys.

So how many pitchers from the Mariners ended up being on the list?

If you go through the list, you'll see an *applicant* on some of the pitchers. This denotes that some of the voters thought that the pitcher would one day have a shot at being a true #1.

Well, this is where it can be fun to read things that are done by people who know what they are doing and what they are looking at. Go ahead and take a guess before we get into it, and try and predict where they are going to be. I'll give you a hint before we get there. The Mariners ended up with their top three pitchers on the list. So where did they end up at? Well, let's get into it, starting with my personal favorite pitcher on the team... Walter.

#19: Logan Gilbert: Ranking 75 - 6 applicant votes - Rated a 63 last season

This means he almost made it to the "one day might be aces" group. He still sits in the #2s and #3s group, with a high floor but possibly a lower ceiling. I think a lot of Mariners fans think that this is the group that he should be in. If you are looking solely at 2023, then he was definitely the #3 on the Mariners, as Kirby and Castillo battled for the Cy Young all the way into September before finally faltering late in the season.

A bit of a spoiler here, but you see that last season rating at the end, there? Well, if you go back to these rankings from a year ago, Gilbert was just a touch ahead of Kirby. Both of them have increased, but it's worth noting that many people still don't have Gilbert that far behind Kirby. Being an innings eater is huge in today's game, and that's one of the skills that Gilbert is showing, making each and every start over the last two seasons.

I also want to point out the applicant's votes. 30% of the voters have Gilbert as holding applicant status, meaning that at some point in the future, they see him as a true Ace. I'm a Gilbert homer, but I think it makes sense. With a 3.47 ERA over the last two seasons, eating innings, and improving his walk rate, the makings are there. If Gilbert can increase that K rate a bit, say to the 9.7 mark he had as a rookie, that would put him in the top 15 in strikeouts.

A 3.20 ERA (his second season), a 0.9 HR rate (second season), a 1.7 BB rate (third season), a 1.075 WHIP (third season), and a 9.7 K rate (rookie season)? Hmmm... those look Ace-worthy to me.

#11: George Kirby: Ranking 81.5 - 2 Ace Votes - 7 applicant votes - Was a 62.5 in 2023

This got Kirby up into the next tier, the one mentioned that Gilbert is going after for the "one day might be aces" group. Such a big part of Kirby's game is his command and control. It's important to realize those are two different things. Kirby doesn't just throw strikes to get the ball over the plate. No, he manipulates the strike zone with brutal efficiency, placing the ball where he wants, when he wants, and dictating how each and every at-bat goes for the opponent.

Can Kirby repeat the control that he showed last year en-route to a top-ten season all-time in walk rate? That remains to be seen, as a single "off-day" really can derail the chance to get in there again. Is it crazy to think in his age-26 season, his third season in the majors, that he wouldn't continue to grow? Maybe he takes a slight step back like Gilbert did as hitters get used to him... but maybe he polishes his game and that step goes the other direction.

That's what the voters seem to think. They have him as #11, with two voters already giving him Ace votes, and seven others giving him applicant status. Nine of the voters think that he either will be or already is an Ace. He's on the precipice, and another great season, maybe one with a dominant September, could see him take control of the Mariners rotation for years to come.