The Athletic ranked starting pitchers from "just a guy" to "Inner Circle", where did the Mariners come in?

The season is almost here, but that hasn't stopped some of the major publications around the world of baseball from coming out with rankings. The latest one to come out is from The Athletic, and they look at things a little differently. We've seen rankings for starting pitching, but that's usually as a whole. They had 20 different people vote, with voters giving out votes that you may be familiar with when thinking about a starting rotation.

They gave votes to pitchers throughout baseball for where they think they slot in a rotation. A #5 gets a point, #4 gets 2, #3 gets 3, #2 gets 4, and #1 gets 5. An inner circle guy, a true ace, would earn 100 points (20 votes times 5 from each). They went through and totaled up the votes for 70 entrants, and ended up listing the top 50 guys.

So how many pitchers from the Mariners ended up being on the list?

If you go through the list, you'll see an *applicant* on some of the pitchers. This denotes that some of the voters thought that the pitcher would one day have a shot at being a true #1.

Well, this is where it can be fun to read things that are done by people who know what they are doing and what they are looking at. Go ahead and take a guess before we get into it, and try and predict where they are going to be. I'll give you a hint before we get there. The Mariners ended up with their top three pitchers on the list. So where did they end up at? Well, let's get into it, starting with my personal favorite pitcher on the team... Walter.

#11: George Kirby: Ranking 81.5 - 2 Ace Votes - 7 applicant votes - Was a 62.5 in 2023

This got Kirby up into the next tier, the one mentioned that Gilbert is going after for the "one day might be aces" group. Such a big part of Kirby's game is his command and control. It's important to realize those are two different things. Kirby doesn't just throw strikes to get the ball over the plate. No, he manipulates the strike zone with brutal efficiency, placing the ball where he wants, when he wants, and dictating how each and every at-bat goes for the opponent.

Can Kirby repeat the control that he showed last year en-route to a top-ten season all-time in walk rate? That remains to be seen, as a single "off-day" really can derail the chance to get in there again. Is it crazy to think in his age-26 season, his third season in the majors, that he wouldn't continue to grow? Maybe he takes a slight step back like Gilbert did as hitters get used to him... but maybe he polishes his game and that step goes the other direction.

That's what the voters seem to think. They have him as #11, with two voters already giving him Ace votes, and seven others giving him applicant status. Nine of the voters think that he either will be or already is an Ace. He's on the precipice, and another great season, maybe one with a dominant September, could see him take control of the Mariners rotation for years to come.

#7: Luis Castillo: Ranking 84.5 - 6 Ace Votes - 1 applicant vote - Was a 82.5 in 2023

We come to the current Ace of the Mariners rotation in Luis Castillo. Whether or not you think it's Castillo or Kirby going forward, it's probably Castillo currently just due to the experience that he has in the bigs. It's worth pointing out that he actually received less total Ace/applicant votes than Kirby did, but had six Ace votes compared to Kirby's two.

Part of this makes sense. If he isn't an Ace already, would the age-31 season for Castillo see enough growth to push him into that next tier? It happens, as sometimes pitchers learn enough to improve as they age, especially for ones that haven't already racked up the innings. It's really important to note that Castillo has only thrown 1054 innings in his career. Even though it's going to be his 8th season, he only has about 6 years worth of innings on his arm. To think that he has another 1000 innings in there isn't a crazy thought at all.

Castillo bumped up a bit from his 2023 ranking, and I have to think that those final two starts in September last season actually hurt him. If he hadn't finished strong, seeing the Mariners go 10-0 over his final ten starts, then Castillo likely would've jumped up a lot here, and busted into the next tier, alongside Zach Wheeler and Corbin Burnes with their rating of 93 and 94. Yes, I think it would've been that much of a difference.

All in all, I think Mariners' fans should be happy about these rankings. Castillo is pushing into Ace territory as a top-7 pitcher. Kirby is knocking on the door after just two season, barely falling outside the top-10. Then, you have Gilbert, the team's #3 but still a top-20 pitcher in baseball. It's a massive boon for any franchise to have... now, let's just hope it translates to success in 2024 for the Mariners.