Tale of the Tape Breakdown: Playoff Contenders, Mariners vs Yankees

A few years ago, an article series like this would have seemed like a waste of time. Before 2022, comparing the Seattle Mariners to anyone other than the worst teams in baseball was a waste of time. Now? Now things are different. In part 7 of an 8 part series, I'm going to take a look at the teams that could potentially stand in the Mariners way of not only making the postseason but winning the American League.

Today, we'll take a look at the old evil empire, the New York Yankees. When 2022 began, the Yankees looked like a team that was finally ready to overcome the Houston Astros. Being 0-3 to Houston in the past few seasons, there was a focus to dominate and get home-field advantage, unlike anything we had ever seen in MLB history. Behind the historic power of Aaron Judge, some surprising bounce-back seasons from Anthony Rizzo and Matt Carpenter, and a dominant pitching staff, the Yankees sat at 61-23 on July 8th. With a 6.5-game lead for the #1 seed in the American League, a 15.5-game lead in the East, and on pace to win 118 games, the collapse that ensued was stunning, to say the least.

In the final 78 games, the Yankees looked like a team that didn't belong in October. They finished 38-40 and failed to win 100 games. While they held on to win the division, they fell behind Houston by 7 games, losing home-field advantage. In October, the Guardians took the Yankees to 5 games, before New York finally overpowered them, setting up a 4th playoff matchup with Houston since 2015. As many expected, the Yankees were no match, being easily swept by the eventual champs.

While New York and the Mariners had their seasons end in a very similar fashion, it was the manner in which it happened. The Mariners are ascending, while the Yankees are desperately trying to get past Houston one time and get a title before things get dark in the Boone/Judge/Cole era.

So… The Yankees or the Mariners?

If the Yankees were 100% healthy and the Mariners were 100% healthy, I think it's reasonable to still think the Yankees are a better team in 2023. While the Mariners future appears brighter, that is how I feel going into this season.

With that being said, the Yankees appear to be breaking down before the season has even kicked off. Starting pitchers Luis Severino and Carlos Rodon will not be ready when games kick off this week. Center fielder Harrison Bader will not be ready for opening day. Bullpen arms Tommy Kahnle and Lou Trivino will miss at least the first month of the season. Prized acquisition from last year's deadline, Frankie Montas, will likely not play this season. 

That Montas deal has been a horrific trade for the Yankees. A deal to add a true #2 to the Yankees rotation, Montas can't get healthy and it played a major role in their signing of Carlos Rodon. With Carlos Rodon and Frankie Montas both appearing to miss moderate or a massive amount of time, this could make it much harder for the Yankees to win their division. This puts the potential of Seattle having a better record or higher seed than New York most definitely on the table.

A lot can happen over the next few months, but considering how things look right now, this is going to be a really tight battle. I love Aaron Judge, but it's highly unlikely he produces a 2022-level season ever again. I like Julio Rodriguez's chances of having a more valuable season than Judge in 2023. The lineups are razor-thin close, but a healthy Mariners pitching staff appears to have a clear advantage. It's important to remember how good Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo looked against New York, but we can't forget how much Logan Gilbert struggled.

If these teams meet in a playoff series, the key will be surviving a potentially dominant Gerrit Cole, and avoiding Aaron Judge as much as possible. If the Mariners can get home-field advantage, and with their experience in 2022, I believe that the Mariners can survive a really close series.

Tale of the Tape Winner: Seattle Mariners