Tale of the Tape Breakdown: Playoff Contenders, Mariners vs Astros

Mariners vs Astros: Astros Offseason Summary

Any time a team wins the World Series, you’re going to see a fair amount of turnover. The price for being great, and the Astros have clearly shown an ability to overcome this. This offseason, the Astros lost their Cy Young winning legend Justin Verlander to the New York Mets on a massive 2-year/$87 million dollar deal to reunite with his other Cy Young buddy Max Scherzer. Verlander likely leaves Houston as the most successful pitcher in team history, which is really saying something when guys like Andy Pettite, Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens, and Nolan Ryan wore the Houston colors. 

Along with losing their ace, the Astros also lost multiple other players, including1B Yuli Gurriel, C Christian Vazquez, 1B/OF Trey Mancini, SS Aledmys Diaz, LHP Will Smith, RHP Josh James, C Jason Castro. Houston didn’t go heavy in the free agent market to replace these lost players, but they did make a couple of moves that I believe are underrated. 

They signed former AL MVP Jose Abreu away from Chicago on a 3-year, $58.5 million dollar contract. The Astros historically haven’t been extremely active in free agency, but Abreu as the 6th best hitter on this team is scary. He may not have the power that he used to possess, but the 36-year-old posted a 133 OPS+, which is right at his career 134 average. 

After bringing in Abreu, Houston focused on resigning both Rafael Montero and Michael Brantley. Montero, after being an absolute dud and playing a big role in the 2021 Mariners missing the playoffs, became an absolute bullpen star in 2022…go figure. Montero posted a 1.3 WAR, going 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA and a 163 ERA+, quite the jump from his 57 ERA+ during his time in Seattle. 

With Brantley, a guy I really wanted to see in a Mariners jersey, Houston provides a comfortable home for Brantley to get 100% healthy after missing most of 2022. He will likely be out for an extended period of time while he rehabs from his shoulder surgery. 

Why the Astros are the biggest threat

These guys are the new evil empire for a reason. They’ve embarrassed the New York Yankees for 8 seasons, they’ve won 5 division titles since 2017, 4 AL Pennants, and two championships. During this time they’ve had over a dozen stars leave. Cy Young level stars like Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke, and Gerrit Cole are gone. We already talked about Springer and Correa. Stars have come and gone, and they are replaced with younger, cheaper, and potentially better versions of themselves. They remind me of the San Antonio Spurs that won 50 games a year for 18 straight seasons, they are machines. 

The 2022 Houston Astros boasted a lineup that had 7 starters that had an OPS+ over 100, 5 hitters with an OPS+ over 125, with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez putting up a ridiculous 160 and 187 OPS+. With the addition of Jose Abreu and the potential return of Michael Brantley at some point, a healthy Astros offense could be even better in 2023. 

While the rotation is losing the Cy Young winner in Verlander, they still have an incredible wealth of nasty arms. Guys like Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown bring dynamic #1 level stuff, while Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia are excellent back-of-the-rotation options. As long as bullpen arms Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, and Hector Neris continue to perform the way they did in the playoffs, then this is the deepest team in the American League, and the gap is still pretty dang wide heading into Opening Day. 

So… The Astros or the Mariners?

Seven American League challengers have come and gone in our Tale of the Tape series, and so far I believe that the Mariners are the better team. As we stated earlier, this titanic matchup between the little and big brother seems inevitable. The Mariners are 34-74 against the Astros since 2017. Do Jerry Dipoto and Scott Servais have enough to turn the tide?

Lineup: As rosters currently stand, I think these two lineups are closer than people think. If everyone is healthy, then yes, Houston has a clear advantage, but not everyone is healthy. With Brantley and Altuve both injured and looking like months away from seeing the field, that changes the dynamic.

As long as Brantley and Altuve are out, the Astros will have 4 players in their lineup who produced at least a 120 OPS+ in 2022, while the Mariners will have 5 such players. Julio Rodriguez is not quite in the Yordan realm of dominance, but the rest of the lineup for the next two months should be able to hang.

As the calendar turns to June and the summer months, will Seattle be able to hang with that lineup, plus Altuve and Brantley? Unless we see a shocking rise in production from Jarred Kelenic, which is not fair to expect of him, or a big trade deadline acquisition, I give the nod to Houston.

Bullpen: One of the biggest strengths of both teams in 2022, these team's bullpens should both be at the top of the league in 2023. Houston finished last season with the best bullpen ERA in all of baseball at 2.80, while the Mariners were 6th with a 3.33 team ERA.

While the gap is razor-thin, I believe the Seattle Mariners will have the better bullpen in 2023. With another year of development and postseason experience for the quartet of Munoz, Brash, Sewald, and Castillo, they should have most leads after 7 innings on lockdown. Not to be forgotten, Penn Murfee was a spectacular surprise last season, and there's some serious talent in the minor leagues that I believe will make their way to the big leagues.

Pressly is a mainstay of consistency in Houston, and while guys like Montero, Abreu and Stanek were otherworldly in a special 2022 season, I think the likelihood they repeat those numbers is unlikely.

Rotation: In what could potentially decide the division race, and potentially a World Series berth, the two best rotations in the American League will decide the winner.

Just because the Astros lost Verlander, their rotation is ranked #1 in most AL rankings. As Seattle showed in the ALDS, they have the horses to hang with Houston. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby all proved they were up to the task, giving up only 6 runs in 27.2 playoff innings. They were good, but Houston's rotation was otherworldly in October. For the Mariners to get to great, they need Robbie Ray to turn the tide.

Despite how a lot of people feel, Robbie Ray had a strong season. Was he the Cy Young pitcher from 2021? No, but as he picked up that 2-seam fastball (on the fly), he looked more like the #1 level starter Seattle needs. While he was pitching really well for over 2 months straight, there was one problem, he couldn't pitch against Houston. Crushed in Houston, crushed in Seattle, crushed in October. Ray has to be right there with Luis Castillo for this team to make the leap over Houston. Hearing that was able to get into better physical shape this winter, develop a devastating-looking splitter, and be arguably the best pitcher in baseball this spring training, there's hope that Seattle gets the 2021 version of Robbie Ray.

The battle of these rotations are just so close!

Mariners vs Astros... The Verdict

I believe that the Seattle Mariners are going to have what it takes to overtake the Astros. They will win their first division title in over two decades, they'll have the home-field advantage, and they will be the team to bring an end to the Houston dynasty, as they hope to create their own reign.

This is going to happen, but not until 2024.

The Mariners are so close, but I expect them to fall just short of the Astros for the division in 2023, and will have a playoff series that will go the full 5 or 7 games, before they come up just short again. That pain will lead to motivation, and the Mariners will get the job done next year.

I hope I'm wrong, and a major trade deadline acquisition could pivot this Tale of the Tape this is much closer than people think, but for now, I believe the champs will wear the crown until somebody rips it off their head.

Tale of the Tape Winner: Houston Astros… (for now)