STEAMER sees regression once again for Logan Gilbert, but to a lesser extent than last season's prediction

Logan Gilbert is coming off of back-to-back 3.0+ WAR seasons, but STEAMER once again predicts regression for Logan Gilbert heading into 2024
Seattle Mariners v Atlanta Braves
Seattle Mariners v Atlanta Braves / Todd Kirkland/GettyImages

There always seem to be a couple of players, regardless of the sport, that are constantly overlooked or undervalued. Guys who, for some reason, just don't get the respect or recognition that they deserve. Sometimes, I think it is because they get overshadowed by other players on their own team, which is what I think the case is with Logan Gilbert.

Logan Gilbert has been great the last two seasons with the Mariners, and even was for the lesser part of 2021 when he got called up. Essentially, he has been a low 3.0 WAR pitcher every season. Yeah, 2021 was a 2.2, but he only threw 120 innings. Increase that by a third, and you get to 3.3 WAR. Wouldn't it make sense to project him out to a low 3 WAR once again for 2024? Especially as he is entering his prime years?

Logan Gilbert is being overlooked once again

STEAMER projects Logan Gilbert in a nicer light than their previous predictions from 2023, but it's still lower than it should be. Normally I throw this down at the bottom of the article, but I'm putting Gilbert projections here to drive it home.

2022 - 185.2 IP, 13-6, 3.20 ERA, 8.43 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 1.18 WHIP, 0.92 HR/9, 3.1 WAR
2023 - 190.2 IP, 13-7, 3.73 ERA. 8.92 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 1.08 WHIP, 1.37 HR/9, 3.2 WAR
2024 - 187 IP, 11-11, 3.85 ERA, 8.93 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP, 1.30 HR/9, 2.8 WAR

Maybe it sounds whiny, and that's fine. I realize it's not a big difference. I don't care about the record part of it, Wins and Losses for pitchers is sort of a dumb stat that has too much outside influence on what a pitcher actually did as opposed to their run support and bullpen. To bump his ERA to a career high, though, seems odd to me.

Full Gilbert homerism here, but I just think this is wrong. I'm not asking for a lot, but when you look at Gilbert, it seems like it makes more sense to project out a 3.55 ERA and a 3.1 WAR. Not a huge difference, but calling for a player to get worse as he enters his prime just doesn't make sense to me.