STEAMER sees promise in Dominic Canzone, especially if he gets a lot of playing time

I may be in the majority, but I think that the Mariners massively won the Paul Sewald trade that they made with the Arizona Diamondbacks last year. They got back Ryan Bliss, Josh Rojas, and the feature of today's article, Dominic Canzone. Canzone made some highlight plays, amidst some struggles, but was a fun and intriguing piece for the Mariners outfield in the second half of 2023.

Heading into 2024, it looked like he was going to be starting in the outfield up until the pair of trades that the Mariners made with the Giants and then with the Rays to acquire first Mitch Haniger and then Luke Raley. If healthy, they will likely slot into RF and LF, respectively, although there are legit questions about both Hanigers health and ability to play in the OF on a consistent basis.

That leads to Canzone and his projections for 2024. STEAMER only has him playing 44 games with 178 PA. That's a bench bat, and likely a 5th OF the way the Mariners are built with Haniger. They see him doing well in that limited time, though, slashing .254/.312/.433 with seven homers and a couple of steals alongside a WRC+ of 108. That seems pretty good to me, and is reflected in a 0.5 WAR.

You build that out to a full season, and he would be pushing 1.5 WAR. The big question there is his defense. He had a great diving play last year, but was still negative overall. If he can play average defense in right, his WAR will be above a 2.0. That seems like a good player to me, and is why so many fans are interested to see what he does.

For those who are looking at his stats from last year and wondering where this "explosion of offense" is coming from, it's a fair question at first. Canzone hit just .215/.248/.407 for the Mariners. What jumps off the page though is the terrible BABIP, as he had a .226 BABIP for the Mariners, 71 points below league average. With an exit Velo of 89.6 mph (1.1 mph above league average) and a hard hit rate of 41.4% (1.9% above league average) we should expect that rate to get back to league average.

STEAMER is projecting a good season for Canzone, and if he does end up playing the majority of games for the Mariners, we could be looking at a 20 HR season, 5-10 steals, and a deceptively dangerous bat for the bottom of the Mariners lineup. STEAMER likes him, it just all depends on how many PA he sees in 2024.