STEAMER Projections are not a fan of Eugenio Suarez

Division Series - Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros - Game Two
Division Series - Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros - Game Two / Carmen Mandato/GettyImages
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I think Eugenio Suarez did something to wrong somebody at STEAMER. Maybe they had him in a dynasty league and traded him away. Or, it could be the other way around and they are trying to lower his value so that they can trade for him.

It's got to be something because STEAMER sees Eugenio Suarez as having a big-time dropoff. He was one of the best players on the Mariners in 2022, playing average defense and putting together a 4.1 fWAR. They see him dropping all the way down to a 2.3 fWAR this year, and a 24 point drop in WRC+. Check out the comparisons between last year and the STEAMER projection for 2023.

2022 stats - .236/.332/.459 w/ 31 HR and a 131 WRC+

STEAMER - .211/.301/.405 w/ 28 HR and a 107 WRC+

Suarez was a totally different player in 2022 for the Mariners, excelling after getting healthy and coming over from the Reds. Shoulder injuries held him back in 2020 and 2021, but many seem to forget that Suarez is a premium power hitter with the second most home runs since the beginning of 2018, with 160 HR. He kept it going in Seattle with 31 HR in his first season with the Mariners.

I understand that STEAMER is always going to be a bit low on projections. That's the nature of the beast. It also leads to fans and writers out there for each team being upset because the numbers seem low. Sometimes, it makes a bit of sense. A guy coming off a high BABIP, someone in a new city, or even the simple explanation of injury history. That's what is affecting Suarez.

It does seem a bit odd to me that they would still predict him for 28 HR with a BA that low. They think the power is there for sure, but that we should see a drop in average. It totally makes sense how Suarez had such a good year back in 2019, when he hit 49 HR and a slash of .271/.358/572. We know that he has the ability to hit for real power and a good average.

No, I'm not predicting anything like, even though i definitely want to. It just doesnt seem reasonable though. The optimistic predtiction should probably lie somewhere in the range of .244 with 35 HR. It would be the second most HR he's hit in a season, and actually a bit down still from his career .250 average. His STEAMER BB rate and HR rate look good, but that BA just seems way too low.

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