Should the Mariners try and trade for Lane Thomas from the Nationals?

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I want you to sit for a minute and think about what Right Field looked like this year for the Mariners. The majority of it was played by Teoscar Hernandez, who has a good arm... and not much else to bring on defense. He doesn't take good routes, doesn't read it off the bat well, can't cover much ground, and has even admitted that he doesn't like running hard. He's got a great bat and good arm, and that's it. I do like the guy, but why not take advantage of the offseason and look for an upgrade.

That's where I think the Washington Nationals could possibly come into play as a partner for the Mariners. It doesn't look like Washington is going to be competing anytime soon, unless they grab a couple of big names in FA.

Could the Mariners and Nationals agree to a deal on someone like Lane Thomas? He still has a couple of years of arbitration left, and will become a Free Agent after the 2025 season, when he will be entering his age-30 season. He won't be old, by any means, but as someone who has turned the corner at 30, would Washington rather trade him away to keep building for the future? It seems like a reasonable thought to me.

I also think about it this way. What kind of deal would Thomas be worth in FA? Benintendi got 5/75, and I think Thomas gets more than that as a good defender (GG finalist currently) and a good mix of contact, speed, and power, as evidenced by his 2023 line of .268/.315/.468 with 28 HR, 20 SB, and 36 2B. Could he push to that $20 per season? Probably. He's a much different player, but let's say he gets the 5YR/$100M that Castellanos got. Add around $7M and $13M in the next two years of arbitration, and you get 7YR/$120M for a 3-4 WAR player per season... a number that might grow when he is in a more dangerous lineup.

I wanted to look at a couple of different deals that they could send out for Lane Thomas. A hitting focused package, a pitching focused package, and then the best deal i think they could offer which might be more than you want to see leave. Baseball Trade Values has a pretty low mark (10) for Thomas, so I'll bump that up a bit. They are accurate most of the time, but that one seems like it needs an adjustment after this season. This is also why you need to be careful with it.

Mariners Send: Sam Haggerty (7.1) and Alberto Rodriguez (2.5)
Nationals Send: Lane Thomas (10)

The Mariners would do that 100 out of 100 times, and they would drive both guys to the airport. Nothing against them, but you do that in a heartbeat if you get Thomas back. Let's try and find something more reasonable, and start with some hitters.

Mariners trade for Lane Thomas: A focus on hitting

Mariners send: OF Jonatan Clase, OF Zach Deloach, MI Kaden Polcovich

Clase is definitely the headliner here. The young OF has shown great strides in the minors, teaching himself how to switch hit, doing it successfully, and gaining power while doing it. He will be 22 next year, and we will learn a lot about him in seeing how he adjusts to AA pitching. He hit 20 HR and stole 79 bases last year. Yeah, 79. Clase is insanely fast, and good defense with that speed is enough to keep him on a roster, even if it is as a 4th OF.

DeLoach has been around for a while, and he could be the one that the Mariners offer if the Nationals are looking for a younger player to still insert into their MLB lineup to see how he does in the pros. He played really well in AAA in 2023, hitting .286/.387/.481, with 23 HR and 8 SB. He will be 25, and seems like a prime candidate at seeing time in the majors next season.

Lastly, we add in Polcovich here. He's an interesting prospect in that he can play everywhere if needed, even though he mostly fits at second ala Haggerty or Moore. He struggled a bit in 2023, but a change of scenery could do wonders for the former .300+ hitter from Oklahoma State.

Mariners trade for Lane Thomas: A focus on pitching

Mariners send: RHP Taylor Dollard, RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Travis Kuhn

Bear with me for a minute here. Dollard dominated, and I mean dominated, in 2022. 144 IP, a 2.25 ERA, a WHIP of 0.951, with just 1.9 BB/9. Record shouldn't hold a lot of value, but it still sways people when they see that you went 16-2! Unfortuntately, Dollard blew out his arm to start 2023, and is rehabbing after undergoing surgery. Do you think you are getting 2022 Dollard if you're the Nationals? If so, it creates a much higher value for the youngster.

Then we go with Emerson Hancock, the guy who is always thrown in trades. He's another one who is hard to gauge, and a big part of that is the injury history. He was shut down again in 2023, afet making a handful of good starts with the Mariners at the big league level. He was hit with shoulder fatigue (presumptively), and shut down for cautionary reasons for the season. The Mariners said he could've come back, but they didn't want to push it, opting for a clean start to 2024 instead.

Similar to Polcovich, Kuhn becomes the "throw-in" here. He's thrown 114 innings at AA over the last two seasons, racking up an ERA of 3.63 with a BB rate of 4.5/9 and a K rate of 9.6/9. He will be 26 next season, and could definitely be a cheap bullpen option if the Nats are looking for one to fill a MLB spot on the roster.

Mariners trade for Lane Thomas: What it might take to get him

Mariners send: OF Jonatan Clase, RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Michael Morales

Would either of those previous two deals work? I don't know. It always depends on what a team is looking for, and I'm not in the Front Office (how cool would that be?) so I don't know what their targets are. Sometimes, a team tries to load up in a certain area. For today, let's make it a combo to try and give them a mix of both side of the ball.

Clase sticks in here, as does Hancock. Clase is personally my favorite prospect, so i don't like putting him in deals. The ceiling is immense though, so he is likely going to be a part of a package for a good player if the team does indeed look into an acquisition at that level. Same with Hancock's value. He was the Mariners top pitching prospect in the past for a reason. He's very talented. You just have to weigh that risk/reward when it comes to a SP with a history of shoulder problems.

Lastly, and as in the mold of the last two offers, we add a third player in here. This time, it's Morales. He's a younger pitcher who would still be a ways out, but has a 50 grade heater and change, with a below average curve and control. it's just enough that you would want to see what he evolves into, and could be the finishing piece to make sure the deal happens.

Mariners trade for Lane Thomas: The Verdict

It's so hard to tell value, as everyone assesses their own team's prospects differently. The Mariners might be giving up too much here, as Clase is definitely improving, and Hancock showed promise before being shut down once again with injury. Could you take Morales out? Maybe insert a lower level player, still a prospect in the high teens, in the place of Hancock?

If you can do either of those, then I think that you do it in a heartbeat. Lane Thomas would be a great fit for this team, taking over in RF. He had good power/speed, could play better defense in RF than he did in CF. He also hit .313/.362/.540 in the leadoff spot last season across 64 games. Imagine a top 3 of Thomas, JP, and Julio? If they manage to make another trade or sign a big bat *cough Ohtani cough*, then they could put them at 4, and that lineup looks nasty all of a sudden.

Even if you have to do all of the guys I listed, Clase, Hancock, and Morales, I still think that the Mariners would need to pull the trigger. Thomas is a really good bat, and inserting him into this lineup could be a great step, especially with the two years of control so that you don't have to worry about the rental aspect of it. If this trade is on the table, D&H need to take a serious look at making it happen.

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