The Seattle Mariners and MLB expansion

Baseball finds itself in the dog days of winter. Almost all of the free agents have signed, and there are only a few question marks for teams left to answer as they head to spring training in the next month. As I search for any Seattle Mariners news or rumors to obsess over, I recently saw an article (paywall) looking at the potential locations for MLB expansion.

As multiple cities are preparing themselves for what will be massively expensive bids to have their city be home to pro baseball, it appears inevitable that MLB will add two expansion teams in the next 5-10 years. This has me wondering, what will baseball look like after expansion, and how will it affect the Mariners?

Who will get the bids?

It has long been rumored that six cities are seriously being considered for expansion. The current front-runners are Nashville, Charlotte, Montreal, Vancouver, Portland, and Las Vegas. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has even stated that these are the cities that are being looked at. Who is most likely to get the expansion bids?

The overwhelming favorite to get the first team is Nashville. They have a strong baseball history, a major market that wants a franchise, and a strong and impressive leadership group ready to oversee the process of expansion, led by MLB legends Dave Stewart and Don Mattingly. It is a near certainty that the Nashville Stars will be the 31st franchise in baseball.

The 32nd franchise selection 

I’m going to cross off Las Vegas from this list first. I do not think they will be an expansion city, as I believe it is inevitable the Oakland Athletics will relocate to Sin City. This sucks for the passionate fans of the Bay and the great history of baseball in Oakland, but their ownership seems determined to run the franchise into the ground before moving to Vegas. 

I have a similar view when looking at Montreal. To our younger generation, there was a time when baseball was in Montreal. The Expos (fantastic uniforms), were an MLB team from 1969 until 2004, when they became the Washington Nationals. Their 36-year history can be summarized by terrible ownership, a singular playoff run, and one of the most heartbreaking stories in baseball history in 1994. 

The city appears interested in a return of baseball, and its population of 4 million makes them extremely attractive.  That being said, much like the Athletics, I believe it is inevitable that the Tampa Bay Rays will end up in Montreal. They already tried the shared team plan and barring something unforeseen, I think the Rays will become the Expos eventually.

Because a second Canadian team could be on the horizon, I believe this would eliminate Vancouver from contention. I do believe that Russell Wilson's PDX Project in Portland is a legitimate group that could be in a great spot to add another team on the west coast. The other contender, Charlotte would also appear to be a viable contender, as it has over 200,000 more people than Portland, and one of the nicest minor league ballparks in the country.

At the end of the day, I believe the ability for MLB to add a team with the historical connection and value in the Southeast with Nashville, and pair it with Portland and their geographical advantages could make for a dynamic duo and bring a real jolt of energy to baseball.

Welcome to the Show Las Vegas, Montreal, Nashville and Portland! (I'm terribly sorry to the fans in Oakland and Tampa Bay)

What will realignment look like?

Now that we have 32 MLB teams, with four franchises in brand-new locations, it is time for realignment. With the help of SoDo Mojo's Site Expert Chris O'Day, he's realigned what we think is a great setup for this new era of baseball.

With 32 teams, we believe MLB will go to four divisions in each league, made up of the West, Central, East, and South. Keeping historical rivalries and traditions intact was important, but also creating more rivalries to give a little extra spice to these new divisions.

Here are the new divisions in each league

NL East- Phillies, Mets, Pirates, and Montreal Expos

NL South- Braves, Nationals, Marlins, Nashville Stars

NL Central- Cubs, Reds, Cardinals, Brewers

NL West- Giants, Padres, Dodgers, Angels

When looking at this new National League, we've realigned the Angels and Expos (Rays) to the NL. Neither team has major historical connections to the AL that it would be jarring for fans to see them move, and I believe it would massively help both franchises. The Expos in the new NL East have an easy divisional travel schedule while returning to their original division from back in the day, under the new Tampa Bay "way" they run their franchise, it'd be fascinating to see them constantly battle the Mets and Phillies. While the Pirates may be unhappy about leaving the central, it should force their hand to be more financially competitive.

The Angels may be nervous about joining the Dodgers in the same division initially, but I believe this could turn into one of the better rivalries in baseball. An all-California division with franchises that are loaded with star power. 

The NL Central does not change much, but the NL South creates a brand new rivalry. Atlanta leaves the NL East they've owned for so long but will enjoy an easier travel schedule, as well as welcoming the expansion Nashville Stars to their division. It may take a couple of years, but I expect those two to become a fantastic rivalry in the Southeast.

A New NEW Look Postseason

Even though baseball has tweaked its playoff format a few times over the past few decades, the expansion of 32 teams puts postseason expansion back on the table. It will face some controversy at first, but a 16-team field is exactly what baseball needs.

The seeding is not complicated, as I would have the 4 division winners get the top 4 seeds to host. The following four teams would be based on the best record. These series would be a best of 3, looking almost identical to the 2020 Covid playoffs. In this format, we would have seen the 111-win Dodgers take on the 81 win and 8th-seeded San Francisco Giants. Instead of missing the postseason, the Giants have a chance at revenge, a year after the Dodgers ruined the Giants magical 107-win season.

In the AL, the Mariners would still have ended up playing in Tampa Bay, but due to winning the AL West, they would have hosted the Wild Card Series. I don't know about you, but who wouldn't have wanted to watch Luis Castillo shut down Toronto at T-Mobile Park? We also would have seen the Baltimore Orioles, one of the best stories in baseball, get to go into Yankee Stadium to try and pull off a massive upset.

Yes, this puts the favorites in a dangerous position, but isn't that what makes the expanded postseason so fun and dramatic? Right away, the tensions are high and the pressure is on. And for those worrying about the integrity of the playoffs, in 2020, four of the six division winners survived the Wild Card Series and the top two teams in baseball met in the Fall Classic…it worked. To reward the best teams for surviving, I would recommend a re-seeding of the teams that move on to the Division Series in order to help the top seeds have the best chance at advancing.

Is this good or bad for baseball and the Mariners?

So that now we've completely changed baseball (hopefully for the better), how does this affect the Seattle Mariners?

When it comes to expansion, I'd expect the Mariners ownership group to fight like hell to keep Portland or Vancouver from getting a franchise. Any franchise in the Northwest is a direct threat to the Mariners market and fanbase. At the end of the day, it makes too much sense not to bring another team to the region.

A Portland franchise being eventually decent or good may make Mariners ownership uncomfortable, but it could be the competitive fire that needs to be lit in order to keep Seattle from being second fiddle in their own region.

The realignment of divisions is an absolutely incredible opportunity for the Mariners to hang a few more banners at T-Mobile Park. As the Mariners enter into a special era of baseball behind the potential greatness of Julio Rodriguez and Luis Castillo, they'd be equipped to dominate a division with essentially two expansion teams and the Diamondbacks. Also, did I forget to mention we got the Astros out of the AL West? You're welcome.

With a division that should be Seattle's for the taking over the next few years, the expanded postseason should become a consistent home for the Mariners. An expanded postseason will have some variances. Some years the M's may get farther than they should and some years disappoint, but they should get more bites out of the apple than ever before. This would be an incredible opportunity for fans of the Seattle Mariners as well as fans of all baseball teams that are sick of seeing the same 4-5 teams dominate.

Expansion is coming, that is certain. If done the right way, baseball can make this incredible game a national (and international) game again that can reignite a passion and intrigue that the sport hasn't seen in forever.