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SEAside Thoughts: 6 Moves for the Mariners at the Deadline
Another series against a playoff caliber team, and another series win for the Seattle Mariners.They've gone 16-9 in July, including a 6-1-1 record in their last 8 series. These series wins came against Arizona, Minnesota, Toronto, Houston, San Francisco and Tampa Bay - all legitimate contenders. With the deadline just hours away, it is clear that Jerry Dipoto needs to buy.
With the Boston Red Sox in town and a 4 game road trip to Anaheim on the horizon, the Mariners have a chance to jump two teams this week, while closing in on not just a wild card spot, but the AL West. Despite all the frustrations and disappointment this season, this flawed team has a real shot to make some noise, and they deserve the opportunity to get better.
With the trade deadline at 3pm PST on Tuesday August 1st, here are 5 moves I'd consider if I was in charge of the Mariners at the trade deadline.
Move #1 - Hold onto the golden arms
I think this is a pretty easy decision for me. The Mariners are sitting on a gold mine of incredible pitching arms, who all happen to be young and under club control for many years. Despite the temptations to trade a young pitcher (specifically Gilbert, Miller, or Woo), I'd hold off.
It's the pitching that has carried Seattle to this point heading into August, and I don't think there's a realistic trade this close to the deadline that makes sense for Seattle to take the risk.
When making such a potentially massive trade, I think Dipoto, GM Justin Hollander and most GM's across the league prefer to make these deals at the winter meetings.
Move #2 - Strongly consider trading Sewald and Hernandez
On Sunday it was reported that the Mariners were listening to offers on Paul Sewald, Teoscar Hernandez and Ty France. While that would definitely come across as a selling move, I understand the temptation. While Paul Sewald has pitches like an all-star this season, the value for good relievers in this particular deadline is ridiculously high. The Houston Astros gave up their #5 prospect in Korey Lee to get middle reliever and former Mariner Kendall Graveman. The Halos gave up two top 5 prospects to Chicago for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. A heavy price for a bullpen arm and a #3 pitcher.
Listen, Paul Sewald is amazing, and I want him to retire a Mariner, but if he could potentially bring in a top 50-75 prospect in all of baseball, adding a young controllable bat that this offense desperately needs, you have to consider it. I'll take a productive starting position player over a good closer almost always, but especially with the incredible track record Jerry Dipoto has at developing bullpen arms.
With Hernandez, despite his baseball card, his OPS+ is now below league average at 95. It's obvious he has not bought into the "control the zone" mentality and his glove has hurt the Mariners a few too many times. If he can increase the haul in a Sewald deal, I'd consider it. If he's more valuable keeping and getting a Qualifying Offer draft pick out of this winter, that's a nice haul as well. Who knows, maybe he gets hot in August and helps propel the team to the playoffs. Until that happens, he should not be playing in RF as much anymore, and his league leading strikeouts continue to haunt this offense.
While I'd consider trading Sewald and Hernandez, I'd still hold onto Ty France. It was just 13 months ago when Ty France was battling for the claim of the best 1st baseman in the American League. Fast forward to today, injuries, lack of power, and a complete disregard for his once renowned plate discipline, Ty France may be out of a job soon.
When you are meh with the glove, have no pop, and are slower than molasses, you better be an exceptional hitter. After posting a 128 OPS+ and 18 home runs in 2021, and 2022 looked to be even better. Hitting .308 with an OPS+ of 140 at the 2022 all-star break, the calendar year since has not been kind. France hit just .229 in the second half last season and is sporting a 92 OPS+ since his amazing run.
While it may be awkward, France does have one more option left. Could Seattle send him down for as long as it takes to get right? He's under contract for a few more seasons, and to trade him now, would be at the lowest possible value he could bring. Play the long game with France, put some pressure on him with deadline acquisitions to either produce, or get right in Tacoma.
Move #3 - Trade with the White Sox for SS Tim Anderson and RP Kenyan Middleton
Tim Anderson, once a batting champ and cornerstone of the White Sox future, had one of the most disappointing 1st halfs you'll ever see from an accomplished hitter (Jesse Winker says hi!). With an OPS+ sitting in the low 40's at the all-star break, Anderson seems to have flipped a switch. Since the all-star break, Anderson is slashing .347/.407/.449 and looks like a man that wants to let the league know he's ready to be a star again, he just wants out of Chicago.
If he's willing to play 2B, Seattle could have one of the more underrated SS/2B combos in JP Crawford and Tim Anderson. Another intriguing part of acquiring Anderson is his contract. While this season has been brutal up until now, he does have a team friendly option for $14 million next year.
If Seattle can get the guy that's played like an all-star the past three seasons, then that contract is a steal. If he falls back into his year long slump, then you can move on and have some cash (they better) to spend
With Kenyan Middleton, the Mariners are reuniting with a former bullpen arm that has had a fantastic season. Despite a couple rough outings this past week, Middleton has put up a sub 4 ERA and an ERA+ of 111 in 36+ innings this year. If you're gonna move on from Sewald, the addition of Middleton could be a solid stopgap while the bullpen resets its roles.
Move #4 - Trade with the Mets for versatile Mark Cahna
Mark "Mariner Killer" Cahna has averaged an OPS+ over 123 the past five seasons before a disappointing season for himself and the Mets has considerably lowered his value.
Still, Cahna's 102 OPS+, defensive versatility (LF, RF, 3B, 1B), and recently run (hitting .428 this past week ) is intriguing. With the Mets having gone into full sellers mode (I think the Mad Max for Ronald Acuna's brother Texas/New York trade is a bad trade for Texas), I expect Cahna will be moved.
There was alleged mutual interest between Cahna and the Mariners when he was a free agent two years ago. The price won't be ridiculous, and it would bring some veteran stability to the Mariners. Cahna could be a perfect platoon for Marlow if you keep Teo, or take over the lion's share of playing time in RF if you move Teo.
Just like with Anderson, Cahna also has a team option for 2024. Play well, and the team has 2024 stability. Play bad, and the Mariners can move on. This is a good deal.
Move #5 - trade with Washington for 3B/1B Jeimer Candelario
Adding Mark Cahna and Tim Anderson brings some RHH stability to the lineup, but if Seattle wants to make the jump to being a real contender, they really need a star bat, and preferably someone that can slug it from the left side. Jeimer Candelario is that man.
The 29 year old soon to be free agent has been an absolute bright spot for a Nationals team that is full on rebuilding. Through 99 games, Candelario put up a 3.3 WAR, sluggish a slash line of .258/.342/.481 with 30 doubles and 16 homers, good for a 128 OPS+. Candelario is a slightly above average 3rd baseman, who has experience playing 1st base as well.
Candelario would be a fantastic #2 or #3 hitter who brings on base stability to a lineup that is littered with strikeout machines. Candelario also puts pressure on Suarez or France to pick it up if they want to stay in the lineup. The price would be heavy, maybe Emerson Hancock heavy, but Candelario has been great for 3 of the last 4 years and I think is worth it.
Move #6 - Win the AL West
Make it happen Jerry!