Scott Servais and the Mariners will have a fine line to walk with rest management

What an awful Sunday night in 2021 it was. Seeing Mitch Haniger injured yet again felt like an ‘of course that just happened’ kind of moment. Like you finally got the punchline of a sick joke your buddies have been playing on you all day. Watching him limp off with Servais under his arm felt helpless as a fan. I can only imagine what was going through Mitch and Scott’s minds.

That said, I think we can all assume the Skipper will be hyper-vigilant about doing everything he can to prevent being in the same position. That’s going to include some of the most important guys on this team riding pine from time to time. In past years Servais has used the Designated Hitter spot in the lineup for such occasions. As a way to manage playing time and rest days.

That will be largely unavailable this year though because of our second favorite Mitch. So how will the lineup fare when one or more starters are rooting from the top step in the dugout? How much rest do some of these guys really need? Let’s take a look at the different tiers of guys, how much rest they’ll need and how Servais might approach it.

All Day & Tomorrow (150+ games)

Only two guys on this list. Good thing they play the most important defensive positions on the field that aren’t part of the battery. JP and Julio will be manning Short and Center respectively just about every game and will be one two in the lineup if Crawford is the stalwart lead off guy he wound up being last season.

The dependability of these two guys is maybe the best thing about this Seattle lineup. 145 games in back-to-back years from your Shortstop and emotional leader is something most teams would club baby seals for. In his Sophomore season, Julio laced it up 155 times, something the best hitter and player on this (maybe any) team must be able to do if a pennant is the goal. The few times they sit expect Josh Rojas to see most of the backup reps at SS with Luke Raley sliding into Center. If a major injury occurs we likely see Bliss/Marlowe get the call.

Regular Forcible Rest (125+ games)

Another two man group here, which bodes terribly for the rest of the list. Newly acquired Jorge Polanco and old best buddy Ty France love ball. They love ball so much that they play through injuries even when they shouldn’t. The anxiety surrounding the right side of the infield should be at an all-time high. The first thing that needs to be pointed out is that when these two guys are going right they are ‘best hitter on the team’ caliber guys.

France was a revelation in ‘21 hitting .291 with an OPS+ of 128 playing in 152 games. The fact that he rode 18 balls out was just an awesome perk. That same year Polanco hit .269 with 33 jacks and 98 RBI over the exact same 152 games. If those two guys show up for the M’s this year it’s going to get wild and there will most likely be a parade. Polanco has a much longer track record in the bigs than Ty but after the 2021 season injuries have started to dominate the narrative for both.

Ty played in 158 games last year and 140 the year before that. Forearm injuries have plagued him for a while now and it might be time to consider a more measured approach. Polanco is of a similar ilk, ten times since the ‘21 season he’s posted an injury and nine of those were beneath the waist. He only managed to get in 80 games last year.

This has to be a bounce-back year health-wise. I think it’s reasonable to expect 125+ games from these two, much more than that and some Tacoma guys might be getting more playing time than anybody is comfortable with. Expect around 35 games featuring a combination of Rojas, Moore, Taylor, and Bliss at second. Raley stands to fill in capably at first but as he’s also involved in an outfield platoon there will have to be other guys like Moore and possibly a Garver sighting at first. 

Mariners and Platoons+

The plus in this case is older guys with injury histories. The great news is that Haniger is already going to be in a 3 man corner outfield platoon with Raley and Canzone so his reps should be limited by that anyway. The not so great part is that he’s the only right hander in that triplet. You can throw Moore in, though I’d rather see his spot given to speedster Samad Taylor. He hits from the right as well and is almost as versatile as Dylan defensively.

The other uncertain platoon is third base. As it stands you can watch what you think of Urias’ ability to throw with an injured shoulder, (yeesh). Rojas is the left hand hitter but will be seeing time at second and short also. Non-roster invite Brian Reynolds could fill in for an injured Urias until he can get right. The other way this could play involves Polanco playing mostly third and Ryan Bliss bombing his way into a shot at handling 2nd.

In both scenarios, Josh Rojas is your infield rest and stop-gap guy along with Moore and possibly Taylor depending on what’s asked of them in the outfield. The ability to have Moore, Taylor, Raley, and Haggerty all man both grass and dirt will be huge for this team. Though one or two of those guys might not fit on the roster all at once. The other natural platoon position is Catcher but that’s going to get a whole section to itself as it couples with DH.

Dumps like a truck, truck, truck

Cal played in 145 games last year, 128 of those were behind the plate. If he repeats that this year Zavala will be the backstop in 34 games. That’s assuming Garver never throws on the pads. CaI will likely not get rest days at DH this year though which would result in his bat in the lineup about 20 less games. I don’t think that’s palatable. He’s one of the most dangerous guys on this roster. Servais might just plan to make Cal available to pinch hit at a crucial moment in the games where he’s sitting.

He could then either be replaced by a utility guy, suit up himself for an inning or two, or let Garver jump back there and dip his toes in at the back end of games, limiting his exposure to injury. I think it’s easier to view catcher workloads by innings. 1,458 of them have to be accounted for at least in a given season. Raleigh logged 1,038 of them in 2023.

I think that’s a great target to shoot for again. Garver posted 230 in Texas last year which was too many. Assuming he gets the last two innings in maybe 20 games tops means I don’t think he should be even scraping 50 over the ‘24 season. We are looking at around 350 innings out of Zavala which probably means 150 plate appearances.

Mind you that’s not many for a backup catcher but this particular one hit a combined .171 across 3 teams with a whopping 47 OPS+ last year. That’s not a major leaguer. There is hope that the 2022 Seby shows up where he hit .270 across 205 plate appearances. I’d bet on somewhere in the .230 range this year. If he’s not near that mark we probably see a call-up to replace him.