MLB Playoff Predictions: Post Trade Deadline and the Mariners outlook

The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while there may have been no superstars switching teams, we saw an active deadline that involved multiple all-stars being traded while the contenders made their moves to get to October. The expanded playoff format that began in 2022 has completely changed the game when it comes to the deadline. While the deadline may not have the same star power movement that we used to see, we have seen many more teams that believe they got a shot. The success of the Arizona Diamondbacks last year and the Philadelphia Phillies the year before (both 6th seeds who made the World Series), have given hope to so many more teams and fans, and it’s great for the game. 

While the majority of the league’s contenders are jockeying for playoff positioning, the Seattle Mariners find themselves in a unique boom-or-bust situation. As they entered their series against the Detroit Tigers, they currently held onto a 1.5-game lead over their hated rival Houston Astros. If they can hold onto their spot, they will win their first division title since 2001, and earn a home playoff series. If they slip and falter, there is likely no wild card to fall back on. It is looking very likely that this race will be a win-or-go-home scenario.

This has created essentially a 50 game sprint between two hated rivals that will likely leave the division winner a home playoff series and the #3 overall seed in the American League. With the AL East and Central division loaded up with teams that are surging and have multiple game leads on Seattle and Houston, the loser of the AL West race could find themselves sitting at home. 

It should be an exciting race to get to the October and the Fall Classic, so today we’re predicting how the regular season will finish based on the trade deadline, and predict who will win the 2024 World Series. 

National League

NL East Winner: Philadelphia Phillies (#2 Seed)

Additions: LHP Gregory Soto, LHP Tanner Banks, RHP Carlos Estevez, RF Austin Hays

Losers of five in a row, the Phillies have looked far more mortal these days after their incredible first half of the season. Still, Dave Dombrowski will stop at nothing to get one more championship, and that showed again as the Phillies went all in. 

A rare trade between powerhouses brought Baltimore’s Austin Hays over to Philadelphia to create a dynamic OF platoon with Brandon Marsh. The Phillies also loaded up their bullpen, adding Banks and former all-stars Soto and Estevez. While they have been struggling, these moves should pay off once they get over their first cold spell of the season. 

The Phillies will hold on to win the NL East for the first time since 2011, but they will lose their grip on home field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

NL Central Winner: Milwaukee Brewers (#3 Seed)

Additions: RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Nick Mears

A team that no one is talking about, but the Brewers continue to be one of the more consistent franchises in the past decade. New leadership, new manager, new players, they keep on winning and putting themselves in position to play October baseball. Despite the concerns over Christian Yelich’s health, I believe their 6.5 game lead in a weak NL Central should hold up, despite the slow climb by St. Louis and the youngsters in Pittsburgh trying to get back in the race. 

If Milwaukee can unlock the Frankie Montas that was so coveted in 2022, then they just may have enough pitching to go along with their high powered offense to be a threat in the NL.

NL West Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers (#1 Seed)

Additions: RHP Jack Flaherty, CF Kevin Kiermaier, INF Amed Rosario, RHP Michael Kopech, UTL Tommy Edman

Perhaps no team made more moves than the Dodgers. A flurry of moves in the final 48 hours brought in three new bats, and talented pitchers. The Dodgers are extremely top-heavy, but the infusion of talent and depth, added with the return of injured legends, the Dodgers will make a second half push for the best record in all of baseball. 

NL Wild Card Seeds: #4 San Diego Padres, #5 Atlanta Braves, #6 Arizona Diambondbacks

American League

AL East Winner: New York Yankees (#1 Seed)

Additions: OF/INF Jazz Chisholm, RHP Mark Leiter Jr., RHP Enyel De Los Santos

The  Yankees and Baltimore Orioles are in as tight of a battle as the M’s and Astros find themselves in. Luckily for the loser, a home playoff series in the Wild Card round feels like a not so bad consolation prize. While both teams made plenty of moves, the addition and explosion by Jazz has brought a new energy to the Bronx Bombers. So much for those character concerns, eh?

Yankees surge ahead to not only take the division back from Baltimore, but they also earn the top seed in the American League.

AL Central Winner: Cleveland Guardians (#2 Seed)

Additions: RHP Alex Cobb, OF Lane Thomas

One of the more underrated trade deadline acquisitions was Cleveland grabbing Lane Thomas from the Nationals. Thomas has been a trade target I had long believed would be a perfect fit in Seattle, but he now will help the team that currently holds the best record in the AL. 

How is Cleveland doing it? Best bullpen in baseball, two solid starters, and four cornerstone hitters (Naylor, Ramirez, Kwan and Fry) all have an OPS+ above 126. The addition of Thomas (113 OPS+) should give the lineup enough depth that they are a legitimate threat to get to the Fall Classic, and I like their chances to hold off a strong AL Central, minus the worst team in baseball history. 

AL West Winner: Seattle Mariners (#3 Seed)

Additions: OF Randy Arozarena, INF Justin Turner, RHP Yimi Garcia, RHP JT Chargois

This is what you’re here for right? Can Seattle finally overcome their arch rival and win the AL West for the first time since 2001? I believe that they can, and they will. The addition of Randy Arozarena is not getting enough love, because of the poor start to the season for Randy, but this man has been nothing but a star up until this season. If he played anywhere other than Tampa Bay, he may have been one of the most popular players in the game. His eclectic energy and playing style has immediately jolted the offense. 

Yimi Garcia has been spectacular so far, and the return of JT Charguois could give the bullpen enough juice as they continue to battle injury after injury. The addition of Justin Turner is not the splash that we all hoped and prayed would be Vladimir Guerrero Jr, but we’re talking about an absolute pro that has been a star in the playoffs multiple times and understands what it takes to win a championship.

The additions of Randy and Justin specifically, paired with a quiet deadline for Houston, brings a new banner to Seattle, while it’s an end of an era in Houston. 

AL Wild Card: #4 Baltimore Orioles, #5 Kansas City Royals, #6 Boston Red Sox 

Wild Card Series

NL Wild Card Series: 

Arizona over Milwaukee in 3, San Diego over Atlanta in 3

The defending NL Champions continue to be a thorn in the side of the Brewers, knocking out the Brew Crew for the second straight year. Arizona simply put, gets healthy in time to be a legit title threat while Milwaukee just has too many question marks for me. 

San Diego and Atlanta has fans begging for a seven game series as we have our first real classic battle in the new Wild Card Series era. Padres have traded too much to go out here, with Dylan Cease besting Chris Sale. 

AL Wild Card Series: 

Seattle over Boston in 2, Baltimore over Kansas City in 3

Seattle wins the division, and their reward is a difficult draw on paper against the Boston Red Sox. With a short series, Seattle is able to put Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller in the bullpen, and they help Luis Castillo and George Kirby shut down the potent Sox lineup in front of a wild crowd at T-Mobile Park. Randy Arozarena once again proves he’s one of the greatest in October, as he and Julio Rodriguez supply enough offense to sweep Boston, and head to Cleveland.

On the other side, we see arguably two of the five best teams in baseball duel it out in Baltimore, as the Orioles survive a tense series against the Royals. Two teams that expect to see each other many times in October going forward, Adley Rutschman gets the best of Bobby Witt Jr in round one. 

League Division Series

NLDS: 

San Diego over Philadelphia in 4, Los Angeles over Arizona in 5

As we have seen in the first two seasons of the expanded MLB playoffs, the wild card teams continue to push these top seeds that are sitting home and resting (or rusting?). 

San Diego loaded up with bullpen arms, including lefty Tanner Scott, who becomes the most important player in the series, shutting down Schwarber and Harper in three relief appearances, while the offense does just enough for the Padres to get revenge from their 2022 NLCS defeat against the Phillies. 

Last year, the Diamondbacks ambushed LA, ending that series before it really even started. This year, we see a five game classic on the west coast as the Dodgers get their version of revenge on the defending NL champs. 

ALDS: 

New York over Baltimore in 5, Seattle over Cleveland in 4

While we have a classic on the west coast, the east coast has a classic of their own as the Yankees and Orioles go five games, with New York leaving the young Birds disappointed in back to back postseasons. 

For the Mariners, it’s a rematch of the forgotten, but entertaining 2001 ALDS between these two franchises. Cleveland is able to take game one between the two division champs, but after that, the Mariners prove to have too much pitching for a Cleveland squad that again can’t get past the LDS Round. Justin Turner and Victor Robles may only be in Seattle for this one season, but they make their mark forever as Turner hits a walk-off home run in the 12th inning of Game 3, while Robles smacks not one, but TWO three run home runs in a 12-3 route in Game 4 as the Mariners return to the ALCS for the first time since 2001. 

League Championship Series

NLCS: 

Los Angeles over San Diego in 7

The Dodgers once again have to prove they are the rightful champions of the NL West, as they are once again pushed to the brink, this time by a game San Diego squad. Timely hitting and a dominant bullpen push the Padres to a 3-2 series lead as they head back to Los Angeles, but the excessive use of the arms comes back to haunt the Padres as NLCS MVP Mookie Betts gets back into his groove just in the nick of time to save LA, with a go ahead two run shot in the bottom of the 8th, after San Diego was just five outs away from the World Series. 

In Game 7, the Dodgers once again come from behind late, scoring five runs in the 7th to eliminate the Padres 7-2. The Dodgers return to their fourth Fall Classic in the past eight years. 

ALCS: 

New York over Seattle in 6 

Mariners fans may want to look away. Another ALCS opportunity against the New York Yankees, and another heartbreaking defeat. 

After the Yankees obliterated Seattle in Game 1 (11-1), the Mariners came back and won the next two games to take a 2-1 series lead. Unfortunately, a blown lead in Game 4 led to the Yankee floodgates being opened, as Soto and Judge manhandled Seattle’s pitching to three straight victories, and their first American League pennant since 2009. 

At the end of the day, the Mariners struggled to contain the powerful offensive duo over the course of a six game series, while the Seattle offense looked one to two bats short when battling one of the best offenses in baseball.