Mariners' offensive projections set Seattle up well for resurgent season

We've done this in the past on the site, and it always feels like a fun little exercise to do as the season gets closer. Taking a look at the projections for the team in 2024, by position, to see how the Mariners stand as opposed to the rest of teams in baseball. Luckily, Fangraphs has all the fWAR projections, and multiple ones at that, that you can look at to see how your team or favorite players could do before each season starts.

That's why we went through and listed out the starters at each position in order to get an idea of now just the level of production they might put up, but how they compare to the rest of the league. It's not perfect by any means, but STEAMER is arguably the top model at predicting upcoming statistics and production in the world of baseball.

Some of these are going to be obvious, and we don't need to spend a ton of time on it. Of course Julio is going to be ranked high. Others, we will be spending more time on, focusing on how they got there. It is really nice that there is a 600 PA/200 IP option for sorting, so you can extrapolate what a full season for a player would look like if their normal projections or less than that.

Using STEAMER here for these, and it seems to make a bit more sense. Otherwise, you would have guys like Samad Taylor for the Mariners ranking as their second best outfielder. While he might end up playing that much, and with a good mix of speed and defense, it doesn't seem realistic or reasonable yet to project that.

Catcher: Cal Raleigh - 3.6 fWAR - 4th Catcher, 41st overall

It's nice starting with Cal Raleigh because it feels like he's ranked in the perfect spot here. Rutschman, William Contreras, and Will Smith are the only ones ranked higher than Big Dumper. It is a decent drop from last year's season, but it's only a bit of an offensive dip here in production. If the Mariners get consistent 3.5-4.5 fWAR from Raleigh, they are set at backstop with no question.

First Base: Ty France - 2.1 fWAR - 14th 1st Baseman

Is France the biggest question mark for this team? If he gets back to what he was, he could jump up to the 6-10 range for first baseman. If he struggles, he might be out of a job to Tyler Locklear or someone else who fills in at first. They're bullish on France, and a 2.1 might actually be good enough for 2024.

Second Base: Jorge Polanco - 2.5 fWAR - 15th 2nd Baseman, 83rd overall

I think that this is a number that we should take and be happy with, even if it is middle of the road. Sure, Polanco has the 3.3 and 4.2 seasons on the back of his baseball card, but he also has plenty of sub-2.0 seasons. A 2.5 means he was healthy and producing, and I think that's the goal. Slow periods can be offset by giving Rojas some play and letting Polanco get a break.

Third Base: Luis Urias - 1.8 fWAR - 21st 3rd Baseman

If this is the case at third, then I think the Mariners are looking elsewhere come the trade deadline. He's gotta break that 2.0 mark and show that he can get back to Milwaukee Urias. If we see Boston Urias, I don't think he sticks around. There are more fun and interesting players to watch on the Mariners, but Urias is arguably the key cog with a short leash.

Shortstop: JP Crawford - 3.5 fWAR - 12th Shortstop, 42nd overall

This is a bit of a drop, as Crawford was 5th last year and the 2nd best SS on offense as well. They've got him dropping all the way down to 13th on offense... and I think that's fine if you have a healthy Mariners team. It's not great, as you never want to see regression, but if you get 85-90% of what you got in 2023, the Mariners will be just fine at SS, especially if Polanco is having a healthy season.