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Mariners' offensive projections set Seattle up well for resurgent season
Fangraphs and STEAMER have their projections out for 2024. Taking a look, they set up the Mariners well for a resurgent season
We've done this in the past on the site, and it always feels like a fun little exercise to do as the season gets closer. Taking a look at the projections for the team in 2024, by position, to see how the Mariners stand as opposed to the rest of teams in baseball. Luckily, Fangraphs has all the fWAR projections, and multiple ones at that, that you can look at to see how your team or favorite players could do before each season starts.
That's why we went through and listed out the starters at each position in order to get an idea of now just the level of production they might put up, but how they compare to the rest of the league. It's not perfect by any means, but STEAMER is arguably the top model at predicting upcoming statistics and production in the world of baseball.
Some of these are going to be obvious, and we don't need to spend a ton of time on it. Of course Julio is going to be ranked high. Others, we will be spending more time on, focusing on how they got there. It is really nice that there is a 600 PA/200 IP option for sorting, so you can extrapolate what a full season for a player would look like if their normal projections or less than that.
Using STEAMER here for these, and it seems to make a bit more sense. Otherwise, you would have guys like Samad Taylor for the Mariners ranking as their second best outfielder. While he might end up playing that much, and with a good mix of speed and defense, it doesn't seem realistic or reasonable yet to project that.
Catcher: Cal Raleigh - 3.6 fWAR - 4th Catcher, 41st overall
It's nice starting with Cal Raleigh because it feels like he's ranked in the perfect spot here. Rutschman, William Contreras, and Will Smith are the only ones ranked higher than Big Dumper. It is a decent drop from last year's season, but it's only a bit of an offensive dip here in production. If the Mariners get consistent 3.5-4.5 fWAR from Raleigh, they are set at backstop with no question.
First Base: Ty France - 2.1 fWAR - 14th 1st Baseman
Is France the biggest question mark for this team? If he gets back to what he was, he could jump up to the 6-10 range for first baseman. If he struggles, he might be out of a job to Tyler Locklear or someone else who fills in at first. They're bullish on France, and a 2.1 might actually be good enough for 2024.
Second Base: Jorge Polanco - 2.5 fWAR - 15th 2nd Baseman, 83rd overall
I think that this is a number that we should take and be happy with, even if it is middle of the road. Sure, Polanco has the 3.3 and 4.2 seasons on the back of his baseball card, but he also has plenty of sub-2.0 seasons. A 2.5 means he was healthy and producing, and I think that's the goal. Slow periods can be offset by giving Rojas some play and letting Polanco get a break.
Third Base: Luis Urias - 1.8 fWAR - 21st 3rd Baseman
If this is the case at third, then I think the Mariners are looking elsewhere come the trade deadline. He's gotta break that 2.0 mark and show that he can get back to Milwaukee Urias. If we see Boston Urias, I don't think he sticks around. There are more fun and interesting players to watch on the Mariners, but Urias is arguably the key cog with a short leash.
Shortstop: JP Crawford - 3.5 fWAR - 12th Shortstop, 42nd overall
This is a bit of a drop, as Crawford was 5th last year and the 2nd best SS on offense as well. They've got him dropping all the way down to 13th on offense... and I think that's fine if you have a healthy Mariners team. It's not great, as you never want to see regression, but if you get 85-90% of what you got in 2023, the Mariners will be just fine at SS, especially if Polanco is having a healthy season.
Left Field: Mitch Haniger - 0.9 fWAR - 33rd Left Fielder
Honestly, the corner outfield spots here are interchangeable for listing who plays where. For now, Haniger slots in at left on Fangraphs. The big question, as it has been, is will Haniger be healthy? If he is, he blows this number out of the water, and could easily triple it. That would bump him all the way up to a top-ten mark in the projections. Will it happen? The less he's on the IL, the more likely it is.
Center Field: Julio Rodriguez - 5.6 fWAR - 1st Center Fielder, 7th overall
The obvious one. Julio should be the highest projected center fielder, and for good reason. He's had two great seasons, and should continue to perform at that rate... if not get even better. The question for Julio becomes is his overall rankings high enough? Acuna, Soto, Judge, Betts, Rutschman, and Alvarez sit ahead of him. If it clicks for Julio fully in 2024, he may find himself at the top of that list.
Right Field: Luke Raley - 1.1 fWAR - 30th Right Fielder
Raley has to be the most intruiging new Mariners' player for this season. He had a strong year in Tampa, posting a 130 WRC+, 19 HR, 14 SB, and providing a 2.6 fWAR through 118 games. Can the Mariners help Raley to continue to build? He's just on the low side of 30 still, and his age-29 season could better 2023. If so, that would move him all the way to 9th in the preseason projections. Is it really that crazy to say the Mariners outfielders all finish in the top-12 in fWAR in 2024? I don't think so.
Designated Hitter: Mitch Garver - 1.6 fWAR - 16th DH
Raley and Garver make for really fun additions to the Mariners because of the potential that they bring to the team. We saw Raley flirt with a 20/20 season, and Garver has massive power that he can unleash. Garver is coming to the Mariners solely as a DH, and will like see less than 20 G at catcher. Will the new role for him allow him to see more ABs and crack the 30 HR mark again? If so, this offense instantly gets much better.
Mariners Offense - 11th Overall
11th overall in baseball is a big improvement based on 2023. Think of all the holes and embarrassing offensive moments and stretches from last season. TOMMY LA STELLA FOR GOODNESS SAKE!
If the Mariners can end up with a borderline top-ten offense, then 2024 should be a big success. A team that can rock a borderline top-ten on offense and defense gives you a playoff team. The Mariners pitching staff and a borderline top-ten offense? That should portend contention, and possibly makes them the favorites, for the AL West in 2024.