Mariners contract extensions: 2 they should do now, and 2 they should wait on

The Seattle Mariners have a ton of young talent on the Major League roster. Most of that talent is cost controlled, something that helps the Mariners now, but they will pay that price eventually. With young talent comes big paydays, and teams typically cannot afford to keep all of their homegrown talent from year to year. There is good and bad that comes with free agency, and the Mariners are no exception to that.

Luckily, the biggest potential headaches have already passed. Julio Rodriguez is locked up for the foreseeable future, and ace Luis Castillo is signed with the team through 2028. But that does that mean for guys like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Cal Raleigh and others? Well, in all likelihood, some of these guys ill be gone, either as free agents or a trade. How do you choose who to keep, and who to let walk?

I am not going to count players who have already signed deals, obviously. Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford, Luis Castillo are all signed long term. Also, veterans like Mitch Haniger, Mitch Gerver and Jorge Polanco will not be on this list. Why? The case for the Mitch's is their age and injury history. As for Polanco, we just have not seen him perform in a Mariners jersey yet. Should he come out looking like 2021 Polanco, then yeah, I want the team to extend him.

I also did not include any prospects like Cole Young, Harry Ford or Colt Emerson. Those 3 are just too far away and probably not see Major League action in 2024. Are they candidates next year? Possibly. But we are talking about today. I am not a fan of signing guys to long term deals with no Major League experience, because the ramifications are so bad if that player does not pan out. Just look at Evan White, for example. The Mariners shipped out Jarred Kelenic to dump White's contract.

With all of that being said, here are two players I think the Mariners should lock up, and two players i don't think they should lock up quite yet.

Player who should be extended now: George Kirby, RHP

George Kirby is one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball. You non-Mariners fans may be surprised to hear that, but it is just true. Kirby owns a career 3.37 ERA over his 320 innings, with a 3.20 FIP, 1.10 WHIP and a walk rate of just 1.2 per 9 innings. He even led all of baseball in walks per 9 innings in 2023 with 0.9, and in strikeouts to walk ratio of 9.05. He has been compared to Greg Maddux and Cliff Lee by others in the industry, and the walk numbers prove that to be true.

Remember the old Greg Maddux joke? Do not ever hire Greg Maddux to paint your house, because all he does is paint the corners! The same can be said for Kirby, and the Mariners need to make sure this guy sticks around for the long haul. They can do that by signing him to a long extension, now. I know signing pitchers to long term deals can be a scary thought, and I get it. Players like Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Rodon have not worked out. Pitchers get injured. Tommy John can take up to 18 months to be fully recovered, and that can eat a significant portion of a players contract.

The fact of the matter is, George Kirby is not Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasberg or Carlos Rodon. Kirby does not come with significant injury questions, or is he reliant of one or two gimmicky things to make him great. George does not walk anybody, he gives up home runs at a below league average rate, and he can still strike guys out at a respectable pace. His price will be high, and the Mariners should be ready to pay it. Say the Mariners off him an 8 year, $200,000,000 deal, does he say no? I do not think so.

Player who should be extended later: Matt Brash, RHP

Yes, I think the Mariners should wait to extend Matt Brash. That does not mean I think he is not worth an extension. Relievers are never a sure thing, and extending one with some walk issues scares me. He averaged 3.7 walks per 9 innings. While that is not terrible, the last thing I want a high leverage reliever to do is walk people. His walk rate did improve drastically from 2022. He walked 5.9 batters per 9 innings in 2022, so maybe he improves that even more in 2024.

THe Mariners pitching lab has shown enough to me to not worry about the bullpen anymore. Jerry Dipoto is a lot of things, but he sure has an eye for finding diamonds in the rough for the bullpen. Paul Sewald, Justin Topa, Gabe Speier and Tayler Saucedo were all cast away players from other teams, and all of those guys contributed in a huge way for the 2023 Mariners. Also, Brash is locked up through the 2028 season, so the Mariners can take their time with him.

Matt's fastball averages 98.1 MPH, which puts him in the 96th percentile fot velocity. He throws his slider more than any other pitch, more than 50% of his pitches. I don't want to put this into the ether, but how long can his arm hold up? The Mariners already have Andres Munoz locked up, and I am sure Brash will be extended sometime soon. I just hope he is not the #1 priority moving forward.

Player who should be extended later: Cal Raleigh, Catcher

Okay, this will be unpopular for sure. I want the Mariners to make Cal Raleigh a Mariner for life. The problem is, I do not think he wants to be a Mariner for life. And can you blame him? He has been very vocal since the end of the 2023 season. He was frustrated with the front office for not doing enough to compete in the previous offseason, and frustrated about the trade of Paul Sewald. He was also frustrated with the trade of Eugenio Suarez and others this offseason, so you have to wonder if he even wants to be here long term.

While he will never win a batting title, Cal has shown to be a premier power hitting catcher, who is also really good defensively. His batting average has gone up every season so far, as he hit .232/.306/.456/.762 with an OPS+ of 112. He has hit 57 home runs over the last 2 seasons, with him hitting 30 home runs in 2023 alone. He even received MVP votes in 2023, finishing 18th in the voting.

So, why should the Mariners wait to lock him up long term? 2 words. Scott. Boras. Boras is an elite baseball agent, representing some of the games biggest stars. Still unsigned players like Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman are all clients of Scott Boras, and still do not have work because of the type of contract that Boras is commanding. That, combined with the fact that he has been vocal about his frustrations here, lead me to believe he will not sign long term here, even if the Mariners overpayed for his services.

I want Big Dumper to remain in Seattle, maybe more than any other player other than Julio Rodriguez. I am just not sure how realistic that is. Boras rarely has his clients sign before testing the free agent waters, and Cal would command some serious money in free agency, espically is he keeps up what he has been doing at the plate. Big Dumper will always be a Mariners legend for hitting that walk-off home run to send the Mariners to the playoffs for the first time in 21 years, and at least we will always have that.

As always, Go Mariners!