Mariners contract extensions: 2 they should do now, and 2 they should wait on

Player who should be extended now: Logan Gilbert, RHP

Can the Mariners extend both of George Kirby and Logan Gilbert? Yeah, they can. And they SHould! Logan Gilbert has ace level stuff, and has shown that since his rookie season in 2021. Logan is under club control through the 2027 season, so the Mariners do have some time to get an extension done. He entered his first year of arbitration this offseason, and he will only get more expensive every year.

Gilbert finished 2023 with a 13-7 record, with an ERA of 3.73 in 32 starts. He averaged 8.9 strikeouts per 9 innings, along with just 1.7 walks per 9 innings. Logan's Savant page shows tons of bright red stats, indicating just how good he is. If there was one knock against him, it is that he gives up an alarming amount of hard hits. Logan ranks in just the 11th percentile in Hard hit percentage, and is in the 12th percentile in average exit-velocity. That would explain the uptick in home run differential from 2022 to 2023, 19 home runs given up in 2022 to 29 home runs given up in 2023.

Obviously, Logan is one of the top young pitchers in baseball. If there was any reason for the Mariners to hold off on extending him, it maybe Logan's own willingness to negotiate an extension with the Mariners. The Mariners have already extended Luis Castillo through 2028, so they will hopefully sign one of Gilbert and Kirby. Neither of these guys have Scott Boras as their agent, so that should slightly increase the chances of a contract extension.

What kind of money gets the deal done? I think he matches up well with the Phillies' Aaron Nola. Nola signed a 7 year / $172,000,000 deal earlier this offseason with those Phillies. That averages out to just under $25,000,000 a season, and that seems reasonible to me. Will he command more? the Mariners have a few more years to figure that out. But if he is willing to sign a deal like that, sign him now!