Looking over the 2024 Mariners to try and figure out the most likely outcome

We've talked about the floor and the ceiling for the Mariners. What's the most likely outcome? Let's take a look in this 2024 deep dive
San Francisco Giants v Seattle Mariners
San Francisco Giants v Seattle Mariners / John E. Moore III/GettyImages

The season opens on Thursday, March 28. The offseason seemed SO LONG! Seattle faces some knowns and several unknowns for the 2024 season!

Last year’s final starting rotation returns with Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, and Woo. MLB recently said that the Mariners have the best starting rotation in all of baseball! Awesome!

Players Old and New

We will all recognize Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, and J.P. Crawford out on the field. Players new to the team replace the rest of the lineup. Jorge Palanco, at second base, replaces several players who shared the position in 2023.  Luis Urias and Josh Rojas will platoon at 3rd base, replacing Geno Suarez. Luke Raley, formerly of the Rays, along with Dominic Canzone will take left field. Mitch Haniger will replace Teoscar Hernandez in his previous role in right field. Mitch Garver will be the designated hitter.

There is good news in the batting department, which has been discouraging fans in the past. Last year, the cumulative batting average for the Mariners out of Spring Training was 22nd in the league at .242. This year, their batting average is .276, in Spring Training, ranked fourth in the league!

Kudos go to the players for their preparation during the offseason; to the talented Brant Brown, bench coach and offensive coordinator for the team; and the rest of the coaching staff.

The Bullpen

The bullpen is the only part of the team that worries me and not due to lack of talent. MLB mistakenly left the Mariners out of the top ten bullpen list. Current and potential injuries concern me.

RHP Jackson Kowar had to have Tommy John surgery and RHPs Matt Brash and Gregory Santos have been recovering from setbacks. If a serious injury takes out a pitcher, I believe that there will be some worthy replacements from the Mariners’ farm teams.

We can start willing the players to stay healthy because some injuries may disrupt what I project to be a great season.

The 2024 Season, Month by Month

Some months in the regular season seem to pass slowly while others fly by. Let's see what the Mariners will be doing this year.

March /April

The Mariners had a slow start to the 2023 season. Last year, the Mariners lost more games than they won between Opening Day and the end of April. Seattle will face both World Series teams, the Blue Jays, and the Braves in April. I anticipate that the team will win more games than they lose.


The Mariners had more wins than losses in May last year. This year, they face the Astros twice, the Twins, and the Royals. Additionally, the team will play 17 days in a row. They will travel to play the East Coast trio of the Orioles, the Yankees, and the Nationals. When they return, they immediately host the Astros for four games before three home games against the Angels. Finally, they get a day off.

The Yankees will be even stronger this year with Juan Soto. I think that the trip may be tiring, so they might not be in their best form for the Astros at home.  I hope that they can hang in there during this long stretch.


Seattle won more games than they lost in June 2023. This year, they play the Rangers, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Kansas City. Tampa Bay and the Marlins are part of their Florida travel trip via Cleveland. With an easier schedule, the team should bank some wins in case they are needed later in the season.


Seattle hosts Baltimore and Toronto at home in July. They play seven games against the Angels. The team then goes to Boston for a series, stopping by the Chicago White Sox. The schedule gives the players several breaks. I think three to five Mariners could be All-Stars.


The Mariners were on a tear in August 2023, winning 21 games. I hope that the Mariners rest players strategically during August to avoid a possible slump in September, like last year, The Mariners welcome the Phillies, the Tigers, the Mets, the Giants, and the Rays.

The team visits Detroit, Pittsburg, and the Dodgers. Many of the teams Seattle played last September are on the schedule this year for August. Perhaps they will have better energy for these teams in August.


The Mariners played ten games against the Rangers and Astros in their final three series of the season. They still play ten games against those teams in September. The games will be spread out a bit better.

The team first travels to play the Angels, the Athletics, and the Cardinals. The Mariners then host the Padres, the Rangers, and the Yankees. Subsequently, they travel to Texas and play both Texan teams. They return for the last series at home with Oakland.

In 2023, the Mariners lost seven more games than they won in September. I think that they will do much better this year.


I see the Mariners in the post-season!

To Conclude . . .

The healthy players we have will most likely deliver as successful or a more successful season than they did in 2023.  I see the Mariners going to the postseason.

The variables that any team faces include injuries, trades, and poor performances from key players.  The Seattle players look great in Spring Training. Let’s hope that they continue their Spring Training streak. Go, Mariners!