The Verdict?: Mariners Don't agree to a trade for Juan Soto
I think there is too much here going against the Mariners. I don't think they are going to want to pay that much money for someone, even the quality of Juan Soto. He is one of the five best hitters in the game, and to place him in the lineup alongside Julio would make for one of the most tantalizing 1-2 punches in the game of baseball.
However, would Dipoto/Hollander give up that much to trade for what is essentially a rental? Soto would be leaving, potentially, after just one year. Would you really be willing to trade away so much, and then watch Soto walk after a season for another squad? The Mariners have mentioned a preference to trade and extend over signing free agents (I think that's an ownership thing and not a FO thing), but I can't see them doing it with Soto.
It's not just the amount of money he wants, which is rumored to be in the $500M range, but it's the fact that I don't know that he wants to be on the West Coast. Suppsoedly, he has expressed a preference to be on the East Coast to be closer to home. Seattle is about as far from that as you can get, both in weather and distance.
If you knew that you could get Soto for a reasonable cost, and then get an assurance that he was going to re-sign for something along the lines of... well, let's say 13-494. That's $38M a year, and get's him locked up through his age 38 season, as turns 26 in October of 2024. Yeah, it's a lot of money, but someone with that much talent at the plate could easily hit into their late 30s *Cough* Edgar *Cough*.
I just don't see it happening though, which is why I don't think the Mariners would end up trading for Soto.