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If the Price is right, would the Mariners pull the trigger on a trade for Juan Soto?
If the Mariners once again decided to look to the trade market instead of Free Agency, what would it take for them to pull the trigger on a deal for Juan Soto... and would it be worth it?
The Mariners have never been one to sign big free agents. Notice that I made it plural, as they have made one big splash when they signed Robinson Cano. I've long defended that signing for how he did on the Mariners and what they got in return in the trade, but that's a separate conversation. Robbie Ray came here, but in the grand scope of things, that was the price for a strong #2 pitcher, not an Ace.
That's what we are looking for. An ace or a superstar. Is that something that the Mariners could go out and acquire? Better yet, would they even do it? That's why I turn to looking at Juan Soto on the Padres. The Padres were similar, in a way, to the Mariners in 2023. Lofty expectations and a "failure" of a season, even though the Mariners were in the picture a lot longer than the Padres were.
With a hefty tax bill incoming and free agency looming for Soto after the 2024 season, could the Padres actually look to trade him away so soon after trading for him? Remember, it wasn't that long ago that they swing a deal to acquire Soto.
August 2nd, 2022
Padres receive - OF Juan Soto, 1B Josh Bell
Nationals receive - LHP McKenzie Gore, SS CJ Abrams, OF Robert Hassell III, OF James Wood, RHP Jarlin Susana, 1B Luke Voit
That's... well, that's a lot to give up in order to acquire Soto. However, they did it in the middle of a playoff race to try and push their team over the top while knowing that they would have 2.5 years of control on Soto. Things are a bit different now, as it's just a single season left for Soto as he heads to his final year of arbitration. He's set to make somewhere around $33M as well, so he isn't going to be coming at a cheap number. Add in that he is looking for a massive extension, and you are faced with some tough questions about his market value.
We did talk about how Soto could be one of the targets that the Mariners go after this offseason, but let's get more specific and go through a couple of trades that the Mariners could make, looking not just at what it would take to pry Soto away from the Nationals, but at the more important piece of whether or not Seattle would actually pull the trigger in order to get him for that price.
Mariners send out: RHP Bryce Miller, OF Gabriel Gonzalez, RHP Walter Ford
Padres sent out: OF Juan Soto
This is the younger/longer term plan that the Padres could go after. You immediately get a pitcher that you can slot into your rotation to replace the Gore piece that you sent out to get Soto. Bryce Miller showed immense talent in 2023, and tickles everyone's ceiling by comping to Spencer Strider with his "rising" fastball. If that's the headliner, I think the teams would be on the right track.
It would take more than that, though. With a lot of weapons still in San Diego, the Mariners could send them two minor leaguers that are a ways off still in Gonzalez and Walter Ford. Ford AKA the Vanilla Missile, is still young and raw at 18 years old. He's already started gaining experience though, throwing 22+ innings in Rookie Ball this year.
Then, in Gonzalez, the Padres get another youngster, albeit with a fair amount more experience. He's seen over 1000 AB over the last three seasons. He crushed A-ball pitching, but struggled a bit against High-A. He's young so it's not a worry, and does show a nice blend of power/speed.
Mariners send out: RHP Bryan Woo, OF Jarred Kelenic, OF Alberto Rodriguez
Padres send out: OF Juan Soto
This would be the more immediate impact trade. You still get a replacement in Bryan Woo, and you can try and pair him with a vet (Rich Hill?) to limit his innings as he continues to build towards a full seasons worth of work. He looked tired at times in 2023, so expecting 175 innings might not be reasonable, but he definitely has a nice ceiling.
Then it starts to get wierd. Could you send out Kelenic to give the Padres someone to insert right into their lineup? They do have a lot of hitters, but with the depth of their hitting, it could take pressure of Kelenic, and possibly let him start over in a new place (even though I don't think that's a worry yet with him). Kelenic showed the ability to be great on offense to start 2023, and I don't think it's that far of a presumption or prediction to think he turns into a darn good player.
Lastly, you get Alberto Rodriguez who had a strong 2023 between High A and AA. 59 extra base-hits overall shows a great feel at the plate, and a slash line of .300/.381/.504 shows that he was able to hit well all season, not just the occasional blast or drive to the gap. If they decide to go the youth route, Rodriguez has an argument at getting time come 2025, and could be another piece that's close to the bigs if they need it.
The Verdict?: Mariners Don't agree to a trade for Juan Soto
I think there is too much here going against the Mariners. I don't think they are going to want to pay that much money for someone, even the quality of Juan Soto. He is one of the five best hitters in the game, and to place him in the lineup alongside Julio would make for one of the most tantalizing 1-2 punches in the game of baseball.
However, would Dipoto/Hollander give up that much to trade for what is essentially a rental? Soto would be leaving, potentially, after just one year. Would you really be willing to trade away so much, and then watch Soto walk after a season for another squad? The Mariners have mentioned a preference to trade and extend over signing free agents (I think that's an ownership thing and not a FO thing), but I can't see them doing it with Soto.
It's not just the amount of money he wants, which is rumored to be in the $500M range, but it's the fact that I don't know that he wants to be on the West Coast. Suppsoedly, he has expressed a preference to be on the East Coast to be closer to home. Seattle is about as far from that as you can get, both in weather and distance.
If you knew that you could get Soto for a reasonable cost, and then get an assurance that he was going to re-sign for something along the lines of... well, let's say 13-494. That's $38M a year, and get's him locked up through his age 38 season, as turns 26 in October of 2024. Yeah, it's a lot of money, but someone with that much talent at the plate could easily hit into their late 30s *Cough* Edgar *Cough*.
I just don't see it happening though, which is why I don't think the Mariners would end up trading for Soto.