Here's what we can expect from the Mariners during the 2023 season

Wild Card Series - Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays - Game Two
Wild Card Series - Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays - Game Two / Mark Blinch/GettyImages

The 2023 season is almost upon us (well, at least pitchers and catchers reporting, that is). It doesn't seem that long ago that we were watching the Mariners win both games in Toronto against the Blue Jays to advance to the ALDS. That we were watching them put up a massive fight against the Astros, being single pitches away from winning two different games against them.

At the same time... it's been 120 days since the Mariners last played. That's pushing four months without baseball. It's been a long time, and I think we are all excited about the upcoming season. The Mariners seem to be better than they were in 2022. The staff has more experience, the bullpen is looking nasty, and the lineup looks better. 2023 should be another great season.

At the same time, I'm a bit nervous. Maybe it's the decades of disappointment that Mariners fans have dealt with, but there is a part of me that wonders if the M's are going to have some kind of "sophomore slump", in the sense that last year was the first year back to the playoffs, and they might run into the proverbial wall of success and struggle in 2023.

On paper, the team should succeed. Buster Olney and Paul Hembekides (Hembo) think the Mariners are a 95-win team that could push the Astros in 2023. I love that, and hearing them talk about the M's in a positive manner warms my heart.

It's why I want to propose a couple of different outcomes. We've sort of been doing this with some of our player predictions and expectations as well. Looking at the "20/80" outcomes... what happens if they struggle, and what happens if things fall together nicely. So, I've put together something along those lines. A realistic worst-case scenario and a realistic best-case scenario. I'm not going to include any specific injuries or say that the whole team gets hurt, but I'm not also going to predict they sweep all the major awards and win 117 games. While those could both technically happen, they aren't realistic to think about.

For the final two things, I'm just gonna increase each team's steals by 15% due to the bag size changes, and go from there. Also, this is the Mariners roster as is, without any big additions at the deadline.








.230 (28th)

.315 (16th)

.390 (17th)

197 (9th)

83 (16th)

2023 - Bad

.233 (26th)

.305 (22nd)

.382 (22nd)

174 (14th)

82 (22nd)

2023 - Good

.246 (14th)

.318 (9th)

.404 (11th)

203 (8th)

108 (11th)

2023 - Great

.255 (6th)

.327 (4th)

.425 (5th)

232 (3rd)

121 (5th)





K rate (K)

BB Rate (BB)


3.59 (8th)

1.19 (8th)

.235 (10th)

8.65 (15th)

2.78 (8th)

2023 - Bad

3.99 (21st)

1.31 (22nd)

.249 (21st)

8.55 (19th)

3.18 (18th)

2023 - Good

3.50 (7th)

1.19 (8th)

.234 (10th)

8.82 (12th)

2.73 (6th)

2023 - Great

3.27 (3rd)

1.14 (4th)

.224 (4th)

9.06 (6th)

2.55 (3rd)









WC #2

Lost ALDS 3-0

2023 - Bad



25 GB

14th Pick

2023 - Good



WC #1

Lost ALCS 4-2

2023 - Great



Win Division

Lose WS 4-2

However, I can still say the team gets struck by the injury bug. A couple of the big bats miss time. A year after the starters where as healthy as you could wish for, nagging injuries cause them to miss time this year, and we end up seeing starts from at least 8 different pitchers. Pair that with a slow start to the season, and it becomes the worst case, and the team is out of the playoff hunt all season. No trade deadline acquisitions of note, and they finish under .500.

The flip side is the fun side, though. Julio Rodriguez is an MVP candidate, continuing to grow and mature and following the road of next Mariners All-Time legend. The Mariners see dominance from the staff, with Gilbert and Kirby shining, and Ray falling more in line with his expected numbers than actual numbers from 2022. Castillo leads the way as the Ace that the team saw in the playoffs, and finishes 3rd in Cy Young voting. Shoot, maybe Bryce Miller even comes up and gets some ROY votes.

Teoscar does incredible, Wong and Moore are a great platoon at 2nd base, and Kelenic plays good enough to make the haters feel a little dirty when they still say he sucks, despite a 2.8 WAR, good defense, and a nice little slash line. Ty France stays healthy for the first time, and fights for a batting title before finishing just above .300 and in 5th place in the AL for average.

Sadler gets back to his pre-shoulder injury dominance and fills a spot in the bullpen that the Mariners have been looking for since Swanson left, albeit in a different mold. Gott or Campbell or Kuhn or someone else entirely debuts for the Mariners and does well.

The Mariners end up making their first trip to the World Series before falling short, losing to... let's go with the Padres in a Vedder Showdown on the West Coast. I would love to see the Mariners win, and it's definitely a possibility, but I just don't know if I see it quite yet. However, if they do make a big trade at the deadline for an impact bat, that's a different story that could end in a World Series victory.

I'm trying hard to stay within that positive mindset, the "Good Vibes Only", and not letting the negativity creep in. It's a lot more stress-free to be in that state of mind, and even if it may not be as realistic, I enjoy it a lot more. I'm embracing the success and looking forward to a great 2023 for the Seattle Mariners.