Could the Mariners trade Logan Gilbert?

As the trade deadline approaches, Logan Gilbert has drawn interest from at least one team. Though every team could use Logan's services, the team named in the report is the St. Louis Cardinals. Derrick Goold, of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch specifically named GIlbert as a player the Cardinals are interested in. You can read his column here.

Seattle’s Logan Gilbert is of interest to the Cardinals, according to a source, though it’s unclear what the Mariners would command in exchange.

Yes, that quote is about as vague as can be. But it does get me thinking: "Who could the Mariners get if they were to trade Gilbert to the Cardinals?" First, i do not believe the Cardinals are going to trade away Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt or Lars Nootbaar. Second, Jordan Walker and top pitching prospect Tink Hence are both probably off of the table as well.

With those rules in mind, i am going to go through a possible trade scenario to see if trading Gilbert makes sense. For this exercise, I will be using baseballtradevalue.com's Trade Simulator. Every player has a trade value number. Logan's trade value number is 79.4 For context, Julio Rodriguez' number is 158.4.

Seattle trades Logan Gilbert (79.4)
St. Louis trades Brendan Donovan, 2B (38.3) / Masyn WInn, SS (26.7) / Gordon Graceffo, RHP (14.7)

Using the trade simulator logic, this is as close to an even trade as i can come up with. The M's would be sending 79.4, while the Cardinals would send 79.7. This is a trade that would fill the second base problem the mariners have, and adding two of the Cardinals top 3 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline.

Brendan Donovan is a huge get here, and should not be overlooked. He has played meaningful games at every position except centerfield and catcher. He is just 26 years old, and is under club control through the 2028 season. His career stat line is .282/.384/.390/.775. He is not a home run hitter, but he gets on base at a very high level. He also won a Gold Glove as a Utility player in 2022. You plug Donovan in at second base and hit him leadoff, with J.P. and Julio behind him, and you have the top of your lineup set for the next few seasons.

Masyn Winn is MLB Pipeline's 44th ranked prospect at the time of writing this. He is just 21 years old, and is playing well in AAA. His stat line is .267/.339/.401/.740. He has hit 11 home runs, and has stolen 15 bases. He has played both Shortstop and second base in 2023. Winn could be a franchise staple for years to come.

While not currently ranked inside MLB Pipeline's top 100, Gordon Graceffo is the Cardinals #3 ranked prospect. Graceffo has only pitched 35.2 innings in 2023, all coming from AAA. He suffered a shoulder injury back in early May. He missed just over a month with the injury, and is now back pitching. His walk rate (3.8) is the highest it has been in the minor leagues, but you have to wonder if the walks were up due to the injury.

I am not sure how realistic this trade really is. Sure, the Cardinals are desperate for pitching. Logan Gilbert would currently be their best pitcher. But would they give up one of the best utilitymen in baseball, plus 2 of their top prospects for him? I am not sure. Thats alot of high caliber players going for one pitcher.

From a Mariners fans perspective, this move could be wildly unpopular. Logan is a fan favorite, and he has pitched at a very high level here. But if I were in charge, and the Cardinals offered me this trade, I would have to seriously consider it. The Mariners have Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Robbie Ray, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo locked up for the foreseeable future. Not to mention Emerson Hancock waiting in the wings. In order to help the offense, you will have to deal from your pitching depth to make it happen. As always, Go Mariners!