As Julio Rodriguez heats up, it may be too late for it to matter for the Mariners

Julio had a stellar series against the Rangers. Over 16 plate appearances, he slashed .500/.500/1.063 with five hits, three home runs, and nine RBI. In fact, he's had a stellar month in general, posting a .940 OPS over the 99 plate appearances he's had in September. He's narrowing in on yet another 20/20 season with 19 home runs and 23 stolen bases and it would be his third such season in three years.

The power-speed threat Mariners fans know and love is seemingly back to his old self after a long wait but was the wait too long? The Astros have shown no sign of slowing down and have maintained a five-game lead in the AL West ever since Seattle let go of their own ten-game lead. While it seemed that winning the division was their only shot at the playoffs, chaos in the AL Central has opened the door to the Wild Card once again.

The Tigers, Royals, and Twin are all within one game of each other with the first two teams currently holding the last two Wild Card spots. The Mariners are just two games out but have a slim 7% chance to make it in as per FanGraphs, mostly due to their pretty tough strength of schedule. The upcoming three-game series in Houston will likely be the final nail in the coffin for Seattle's 2024 season but there's still a chance they pull it off.

But what if Julio had been hot from the start? Throughout his career, he has taken a while to get going. After three seasons, his cumulative OPS pre-ASB is .740 while his OPS post-ASB is .910, a massive difference. In other words, his hitting in the second half throughout his career is on-par with Gunnar Henderson's total 2024 offensive production while his career first-half production is on-par with what Shea Langeliers has done this year.

A key time for Julio to have found his footing would have been back in June when the Mariners held a dominant lead in the AL West. Yes, part of that was due to Houston's terrible injury luck with their pitching staff but if Seattle had held onto their 58.7% winning percentage, they'd have roughly the same record as the Yankees (92-64).

It's hard to say whether this early slump will be a chronic issue for Julio but it's something that seems to drag the team down every year. Overall the team's offense seems to have taken a big turn with their combined .792 OPS in September the third-highest of any MLB team, but at this point, it seems like it will all be in vain. Nonetheles, there's always next year. That is, unless this emotional rollercoaster of false hope starts up again.