If you would've turned to the playoff odds a week ago, you would've seen the Mariners sitting at 29.3%. Not great, but it seemed about right for a team that was 4 games back of Houston, still behind Toronto, and had the Red Sox right on their heels. Go back another week, and that number was even lower at 26.9%. After sweeping the Astros, the Mariners have seen a massive leap to their playoffs odds.
How big? Well, they now sit at 59.1% to make the playoffs, and have even climbed to 17.5% to win the division and 17.3% to get a first round bye. That's a massive leap. It's too far away to talk about a magic number, but the Mariners are now fully in the conversation as not just a team that might make the playoffs, but as a team that will be fighting for the top Wild Card spot and potentially the division.
Whether you want to highlight the fact that the offense has been doing quite well over their incredible run over the last 7 weeks (nearly 5 runs a game), or that the pitching has been doing well despite some injuries and inexperience, as well as trading away Sewald.
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but the Mariners have a chance to climb even higher over the next week and a half. They have series coming up against the White Sox,the Royals, and the Athletics over their next three. If they went 6-3 or better, it would increase their odds even more. Imagine seeing the Mariners at 75-58 after that series? They would be in a fantastic spot as the calendar turned to September.
Keep an eye on the odds and the WC standings. While it doesn't tell you everything, it's still a good indicator of what Fangraphs thinks will happen to finish out the season. The Mariners aren't there yet, but they are looking better than they have at any point in the 2023 season.