A Deep Dive into the Mariners Top of the Lineup Struggles

Fifteen games into the season, the Mariner's offense has been off to a sluggish start. That’s been mostly due to the five guys who were hitting 1-5 on Opening Day. JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, & Cal Raleigh are all hitting below the Mendoza line, and all have an OPS below .600. There’s no way to sugarcoat it: that’s bad. Today, let’s break down the advanced metrics on each player, and discover why they have each been struggling at such a high clip. 

JP Crawford

Slashline: .164/.261/.262 (.523 OPS) 61 wrc+, 56 ops+, 0.1 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR

JP has struggled mightily after his career year in 2023. And right now, the advanced metrics are not showing a lot of positive signs. JP ranks in the 16th percentile for xBA (.205), which is notably still 41 points higher than his actual BA of .164, but still not very good. His expected slugging sits at .333, also much higher than his current mark of .262, but still only in the 27th percentile. 

The problem for JP is that he simply isn’t making good, hard contact. Crawford’s average exit velocity is currently just 85.1 MPH (12th percentile), his barrel rate is 4.1% (31st percentile), his hard hit % sitting at 28.6% (15th percentile), and his Sweet-spot % is just 16.3% (2nd percentile). Most troubling is the exit velocity numbers. JP, until last year, had always had an average exit velocity of around 85-86 MPH, which usually ranked in the bottom tenth of the league. That makes sense, he was never considered to be a power hitter.

Last year, he cranked his exit velo up to 88.3 MPH, a career-high, and suddenly hit 19 HRs. This year, his exit velo seems to be returning to career norms, indicating that perhaps that power influx from last year was a mirage, possibly the ‘driveline effect.’ Similarly, with his hard hit %, JP set a career-high last year, when he hit the ball hard in 36.2% of ABs, easily the best of his career. This year he is at 28.6%, which is quite similar to his career average of 30.8%. Perhaps JP Crawford just isn’t a power hitter? 

Now, he can make this work, and we’ve seen him be a good hitter without the power. JP Crawford was a productive hitter in 2021-2022 despite only hitting 15 home runs. He had 103 wrc+ and a 101 ops+ during that span, so even without power, JP was a slightly above-average hitter. Some of his decline this year could be attributed to the increase in breaking balls he’s been seeing. Pitchers are throwing breaking balls to JP 29% of the time, the most of his career. Not surprisingly, he’s whiffing at 32% of breaking balls. JP crushed offspeed pitches last year, hitting .301 with 4 HRs, but he is seeing fewer offspeed pitches than ever before (8.3%). 

The good news? He isn’t chasing pitches, and he isn’t striking out much. His chase rate of 19% ranks in the 89th percentile, and his whiff rate at 15.9% is 87th percentile. He is striking out 17.4% of the time, which is slightly less than his career average of 18%. 

If JP wants to get back to being a productive hitter, he would benefit from being more patient and adjusting to breaking balls. Last year he led the AL in walks, which were a huge part of his game. This year he is walking only 10.1% of the time, which would be the third-lowest walk rate of his career. Improving his plate discipline will also hopefully give him better pitches to hit. If the underlying numbers are accurate, Crawford might not be a power hitter, and if that is the case, he needs to go back to his contact roots and do what made him a productive player in 2021-22. If not, these trends could continue to get ugly for the Mariner's shortstop. 

Julio Rodriguez

Slashline: .186/.238/.203 (.441 OPS) 35 wrc+, 34 ops+, -0.3 bWAR, -0.2 fWAR

It’s true that Julio Rodriguez always struggles in April. His career April splits? .216/.281/.331 with a 76 wrc+. This year is on pace to be his worst April yet, however, and for the 23-year old finished fourth in MVP voting last year despite an overall decline in offensive production from his insane rookie season, it is causing a lot of fans to question if he is ever going to reach his MVP potential.

There is good news for the doubters, however. Jrod looks like he will be just fine. He rocks an xBA of .251 (65 points higher than his current average), and an xSLG of .361 (158 points higher than his current slugging %). That’s because his average exit velo (91.2 MPH) isn’t bad at all. Jrod ranks 74th percentile in exit velo, and while it is 1.5 MPH lower than his career norm, it's nothing to worry about yet. His hard hit % is 42.1% (60th percentile), and his sweet spot % is 36.8 (61st percentile). Again, lower than his career averages, but nothing looks super shocking. He is hitting the ball just fine, and making good contact. Part of this early-season slump could be chalked up to the marine layer and bad luck. 

However, there is a strikeout problem. And it has been a glaring problem. JRod is striking 33.3% of the time, whiffing 33.1% of pitches, and chasing 33.8% of the time. All of those marks rank in the bottom fifth of the league. He also isn’t walking, with a 4.8% rate that places him in the 17th percentile. Julio has a career strikeout rate of 25.5% so his 33.3% rate is remarkably higher than the career average. That is certainly something to be fixed. Even last April, Julio was only striking out 27% of the time, although in his career, April is easily his worst month of striking out (31.8%). 

Similar to Crawford, Julio has been seeing a huge increase in the amount of breaking balls being thrown to him (40.3%, a 7.4% increase!!!) and he is hitting .200 against them, with a whiff rate of 46.5%. He’s been even worse against offspeed pitches, which cause him to whiff a whopping 58.3% of the time. Until Julio shows he can lay off breaking balls and start to walk more (even just getting to his career average of 6.5% would be huge), pitches are going to keep pounding him with breaking balls. And he is going to have to be better at recognizing and waiting, on offspeed pitches, because so far this season, he has been getting fooled. 

Jrod should bounce back, and hopefully soon. When he is making contact, it’s been mostly good contact, and we’ve seen him go through April slumps before. He just needs to cut back on strikeouts and be more patient at the plate, and I’m guessing the batting average will begin to improve. 

Jorge Polanco

Slashline: .196/.318/.304 (.622 OPS) 89 wrc+, 86 ops+, -0.3 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR

Polanco, for what it’s worth, has been the best of the Mariners' “top 5” hitters this year, in terms of OPS, ops+, and wrc+. That’s because he, at least, is drawing walks. He is 83rd percentile in walks, with his 13.6% rate, well above his career average of 8.8%. So that is promising. 

The rest is not as promising. Polanco combines Julio’s high strikeout rates with Crawford’s low exit velocities, and the result has not been pretty. Polanco’s 33.3% strikeout (11th percentile) is by far the highest in his career, and that might not be as worrisome if not for the trend he’s been on the past five years. Let’s take a look. 

2020: 15.5%
2021: 18.3%
2022: 21.3%
2023: 25.7%
2024: 33.3%

Polanco’s strikeout rate has jumped in each of the past five years, which probably should have been a red flag when trading for him, but is definitely a red flag now. The silver lining is that although Polanco is striking out a lot, and whiffing a lot (29.3), his chase rate isn’t terrible. He’s only chasing 25.3% of the time, which is right at the league average, so maybe there will be some improvement in the strikeout rate going forward. 

What is probably even more worrisome for Polanco is the exit velocity of 85.5 MPH, which would be the lowest in his career. It would also be the fourth year in a row that his average exit velo has declined, although this year is a much steeper decline than last year (88 MPH). Unlike JP, Polanco has always hit the ball hard in his career, until now, so he should theoretically improve.

His hard-hit rate of 35.3% is 33rd percentile, while he does have a nice sweet-spot % of 35.3, which ranks in the 56th percentile. He still needs to barrel the ball up more (currently only 5.9%), but hopefully, when he does, the exit velo and hard-hit rates will improve as well. 

Just like the previous two guys, Polanco has been thrown more breaking balls than ever before in 2024. 34.1% breaking balls is easily the most he’s ever seen. He’s hitting .158, and whiffing 32.6% of the time against them. However, Polanco also has not been able to hit the fastball this year, which is probably more concerning. He is currently hitting just .154 against fastballs (xBA of .210), and whiffing at a 25.8% clip. 

For Polanco to see positive improvement, he will need to cut down on his strikeouts, especially against the fastball, which makes me think this could be more of a timing issue than anything else. That’s a good thing, because a timing issue can be fixed a lot easier than a long-term decline in power. However, the strikeout rates and low exit velocities are undeniably a concern, and Polanco will need to get a hold of them if he wants to get back to being a league-average pitcher. 

Mitch Garver

Slashline: .156/.250/.222 (.472 OPS). 45 wrc+, 41 ops+, -0.4 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR

The Mariners' big free agent signing of the offseason Mitch Garver has looked miserable at the plate so far this year, but the underlying numbers don’t look as bad. Let’s dive into it. 

Garver’s xBA of .151 and xSLG of .247 are awful, and both rank in the bottom tenth of the league. However, there are some good signs underneath those numbers. His average exit velocity sits at 89.5 MPH, which is above league average. Also above league average, in the 62nd percentile, is his 36.7% sweet-spot rate. His hard-hit rate of 36.7% is 43rd percentile, so also right about league average, while his barrel rate is currently just 3.3%, the lowest since his rookie season. His low barrel rate is worrisome, but the rest of those numbers are fine. Garver isn’t showing other-worldly power, but he is making good, solid contact for the most part. 

His strikeout rate of 30.8% has not been impressive, however, and his BB% of 9.6 is the second worst of his career. What is interesting is that while Garver’s overall numbers might look worse, he is striking out less than Rodriguez, Polanco, and Raleigh, while walking more than both Rodriguez and Raleigh, so perhaps Garver is also falling victim to some bad luck here. Still, a 34.5% whiff rate is not good, and he is below league average with his 28.1% chase rate as well. 

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Garver is seeing a career-high 40% breaking balls this year. He is hitting .063 against such pitches, and whiffing 47.4% of the time. Those numbers are consistent with his career totals against breaking balls. He has only hit above .200 twice in his career against breaking balls (although 2023 was one of those years, so maybe we thought he had turned a corner). Garver is also only hitting .167 against fastballs, despite only whiffing 20% of the time, which is concerning.

He is making contact against fastballs, but he isn’t getting nearly enough hits. And that’s despite a 94.7 average exit velocity against fastballs, which is the best of his career! Part of the problem there is that Garver is hitting a lot of ground balls (36.7%) and a career-low in fly balls (20%). For a guy who is really known for being a power hitter, he is going to have to hit more fly balls if he wants to hit more home runs. Perhaps more than any other Mariner, Garver has suffered from making a lot of hard-contact ground ball outs. Hopefully, that’s just an early trend that will reverse itself. 

Mariners Lineup Struggles: The Bottom Line

The bottom line is that the Mariners' best five hitters are striking out too much, not walking enough, can’t hit breaking balls, and are hitting into a lot of hard-ground ball outs. Overall, Julio and Cal are probably the least concerning based on the underlying numbers, while Polanco is the guy causing the most doubt, due to his long-term trends in K% and exit velocity. 

The “spin-it-to-win-it” mantra has so far paid off for opposing pitchers against the M’s, and my guess is that it will continue to pay off until the Mariners learn how to lay off breaking balls and wait for a better pitch. Yes, it is still early, and yes, many of these trends will get better as the season goes on. But 1/10th in the season, the Mariners presumed top-5 hitters have failed to carry the weight, and the result has been the mediocre 6-10 record to start the year.