5 optimistic predictions for the Mariners as we head into 2023

Mariners Prediction #3. Logan Gilbert finishes 2nd in Cy Young voting

Logan Gilbert was really good against everyone in 2022 not named the New York Yankees. It even happened in back-to-back starts. In 9.1 IP, he gave up 17 hits, 13 ER, 5 BB, and 4 HR to the Yankees resulting in an ERA of 12.54 and a WHIP of 2.36.

In the other 30 starts that he made, he had an ERA of just 2.71 and a WHIP of 1.12. That's pretty darn good. So, let's try and build the case for how he could get there.

Say that Gilbert takes another step forward, and increases the K/9 by just a little bit. He was a 9.7 in 2021, but down to a 8.4 last season. Let's settle in between those numbers at... 9.4 K/9. An increase of one per full game from last year. It's a jump, but it's not unreasonable.

He also threw 185.2 IP last year across his 32 starts. He definitely has shown the ability and aptitude to go deep into games, throwing 6 or more innings in 18 of his starts, and making it 5 or more in all but one start (one of the Yankees ones mentioned earlier). So, let's average him out to about 6.15 IP per start. That gets him to approximately 197 IP. It would've been 9th in MLB last year for innings pitched. It might be a lot, but again, second in Cy Young voting is what we are going for.

We bump the ERA down a bit, to 2.44. His WHIP follows and finishes at 1.03. Those numbers would be 7th and 15th, respectively. With that K rate, he would be at 206 Ks, which would be 9th as well. Add that all up and pair it with the Mariners being a playoff team, and you have a pitcher that is going to have a strong Cy Young case, but fall short in the end.