5 Mariners players who could be the difference between success and failure in 2024

Spring Training is so close I can taste it. Whenever we get inside that one month mark, I start to get excited. It's the next step in getting closer to the season, and is just one of the many marks I look forward to as it approaches. MLB The Show will release their cover athlete soon (although it sounds like Julio may be DQ for being on some EA Sports Tap Mobile game), and pitchers and catchers will report in just a few weeks.

Shoot, I started writing this on the 24th, and the first Spring Training game is only a month away from today. It got me thinking about all the new Mariners on the team as well as the pressure that this team is going to be under heading into 2024. After breaking the insane playoff drought in 2022 and giving the Astros arguably their toughest series of the postseason, the Mariners looked prime for a long run of playoff berths.

They narrowly missed out in 2023, as their additions just didn't do enough to make an impact. With plenty of new faces in 2024 and a potential for 4 new starters in the lineup (Garver, Haniger, Raley, Urias), there is a lot of risk/reward and pressure for 2024. Can the Mariners get back into the playoffs, or will some of these new players fold under the pressure and lead to a similar outcome from 2023?

It's going to be a mix of new and old, as we look at five Mariners that could determine the success or failure of the 2024 team. Let's jump into it with a new look at an old friend.

Mariners Difference Maker #5: Mitch Haniger

You could go with either corner outfield spot here, but I think there is a lot more variance in the numbers that we could see from Mitch Haniger this year as opposed or compared to Luke Raley.

It starts with health. An injured Haniger could easily snowball into missing 100+ games, leaving a big hole in RF that has to be filled with an option that doesn't look great as it stands. They could go with Canzone, and he is the likely first call, but the offense definitely needs to improve, although his underlying numbers do look to have success on the way.

If the Mariners can get good Haniger, thats a huge win. I'm not talking about the 6+ WAR season that he had for the Mariners, but more in line with the 3+ WAR season he had in 2021. Can Haniger play 135 games and hit 25 homers? If he does, thats a big win for the Mariners, and he will likely end up with a bigger impact than what Teoscar Hernandez had last season. If not, it's a wasted roster spot. The gap in ceiling and floor really is that big.

Mariners Difference Maker #3: JP Crawford

Speaking of JP Crawford, he is next up on the list. He had such a massive improvement in 2023, that it's understandable to expect a bit of a drop back to normalcy in 2024.

Unless that is, those changes at Driveline are longer lasting and are a sign of what JP Crawford has become, instead of just a flash in the pan that will be an outlier to his career. There are plenty of reasons to believe that the numbers from last year are sustainable and that they weren't just luck-based.

His eye was much better at the plate, leading the American League in walks and setting the stage more often for Julio. His launch angle was up a bit, as was hit exit velo, sweet spot %, and hard-hit rate. He was topping it less, making less weak contact, and barreling the ball up more often. There is a lot more red across his rankings; they are all good signs. His BABIP was only .314 as well, which is nothing crazy.

I think getting the same JP we saw last year would be a success for this lineup. If he can set the table like last year, doing it for Julio, Haniger, Garver, Raleigh, or Raley (whoever is at the 2/3/4), it's going to be a massive indicator of this team's success or failure in 2024.

Mariners Difference Maker #2: Luis Urias

This had to be the one that people were waiting to read about, right? Urias is probably the most polarizing move of the offseason for the Mariners, coming over in the deal for Isaiah Campbell. We won't get into who won that trade (it's too early to tell besides insta-reactions anyway), but instead will look at what we need from Urias, and what it could mean if he plays to the recent floor he has shown.

Let's start there, in fact. Urias was not good last season, and there is no way around that. .194/.337/.299 with a 76 OPS+. That's not a mistyping, his OBP was higher than his SLG, and by a decent margin. For someone who is just a decent defender and a bit above-average, those are cut-worthy numbers. You can't have it, and it's a failure to the team and the fans to keep someone like that around. Especially when they aren't stealing bases.

It's not all doom and gloom, though. If you get a mix of the 2021+2022 seasons, then you are looking at a vastly better player. To the tune of .244/.340/.426 with a 111 OPS+ with 20 HR. Yeah, Urias has power when he is hitting well. If you can get that slash line with 15-20 HR, throw in the K rate of around 21-22% and a BB rate of 11%? That's a great addition at third. Better than Geno last year, even.

You could be looking at a similar glove, a better slash line, less homers to be fair, but literally 100 less strikeouts from Urias. The difference between good Urias and bad Urias could literally be 3-4 wins, as we saw at second base last season with Wong. The Mariners need to be ready to pull the trigger earlier, though, as the Wong experiment cost the Mariners a playoff berth last season.

Mariners Difference Maker #1: Bryce Miller

Maybe you were expecting to see Julio or one of the pitchers on this list. It's a fair question, but good seasons by them instead of great ones will still make a strong positive impact. It's why I wanted to focus on Bryce Miller as the final, and arguably most important, entrant on this list.

We know that the Mariners have a dominant top-3 in their rotation. Depending on where you look, they have 3 of the top 8/9 in the American League Cy Young voting. I can't tell you the last time a team had that many in the top 10. It's why I think Bryce Miller could be so important to the Mariners this year as their number 4. (If you prefer Bryan Woo here, just swap the names in your head... I'm a Miller guy.)

Here's the thought process. If Miller can make that leap like we saw Gilbert and Kirby make, even at 85% of what they did, he becomes arguably the best #4 starter in baseball, and someone who would be a #2/#3 on plenty of teams. Having that as your #4 is wild. You dont have to worry about finding wins in the back half of your rotation or scoring a ton in those games to have a chance. If Miller, who averaged 5.24 IP per start, can throw 30 games with 5.5 IP per start?

Yeah, the Mariners would be in a fantastic spot.

With a WHIP just under 1.2 last season and a sub 4.00 FIP, Miller has great stuff. With a full offseason in the bigs under his belt and the tutelage and assistance of the best top 3 in baseball, Miller will have little to no pressure this year. If we do see Miller post a sub-4 ERA while throwing 165-175 IP, the Mariners record is going to instantly get better. Especially if that nasty Splitter performs like it looks in his offseason workout videos.

Those are the 5 Mariners that I think are going to have the biggest impact on the success or failure of the team this season. It's getting close, everyone, and we should be excited. Go Mariners!