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3 Prospects who succeeded and 2 who failed so far from Mariners' 2021 prospect class

Before the 2021 season, the Mariners' farm system featured five Top 100 prospects. The ascending Mariners organization has now seen the debuts of all five of these prospects, how have they fared in their careers so far?

By Aidan Smith |
Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert
Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert / Steph Chambers/GettyImages
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The Mariners farm system is starting to look good again after a drop in the last couple of years. The only reason the farm system looked to be struggling was from the amount of impressive graduations that they saw. Today, we take a look back at the not-so-far-away past to look at some of those prospects, jumping back a few years to look at the Mariners crop of talent from their 2021 farm system.

The major prospect to emerge in the bottom half of the top 10 is All-Star Cal Raleigh. The switch-hitting catcher was ranked 8th by MLB Pipeline in the Mariners system at the time, and profiled as a bat first catcher with power from both sides of the plate. Cal has improved defensively in a significant way since Florida State, and now he's a top 5 catcher in Major League Baseball.

Brandon Williamson (#10) and Noelvi Marte (#7) were both packaged in the Luis Castillo deal of course, with Marte recently getting suspended for PED's. Taylor Trammell was ranked #6 on this list, with a scouting profile for high OBP and plus-defense. Unfortunately, his strikeout problems (37% career K rate) will limit his opportunities at the MLB level.

The Pitchers that now headline the Mariners

#5 George Kirby

Kirby was a 1st rounder back in 2019, and he's continued his excellent command since his call up the show, leading the league in BB/9 and K/BB ratio. Kirby has nice off speed, including a slider and curveball that play well off of his fastball. His 106 stuff + is a strong number but 110 location + is elite. Because of his elite command, I think Kirby has the chance to compete for Cy Young awards, especially if he can remain durable. Kirby was ranked third best prospect in the org behind Marte and Julio and projected as a frontline starter. He already made an All Star team last season at 25, and ZIPS projects George for another solid campaign in 2024, a 3.48 ERA in 29 starts.

#4 Logan Gilbert

Gilbert hasn't made an All-Star game yet, but he's overdue for his first selection. Gilbert throws strikes (4.7 BB% in 2023), albeit not as much as George Kirby. He probably has better stuff than Kirby with less command, flashing a 133 stuff+ on his slider in 2023. Gilbert is middle of the road in K rate, as well as chase and whiff, but he's effective at limiting baserunners and pitching to contact. Logan also has started 32 games in back-to-back seasons, which is a rare show of durability in an era where many guys struggle to throw 150 innings a season consistently.

#3 Emerson Hancock

Hancock was thought by some to have Ace upside when he was drafted out of Georgia, but at this point, he looks more like a backend starter. He was throwing up the high 90s when he was drafted and saw his velocity drop down to the low nineties on his way to the show. He has a nice 55-grade slider and a solid changeup, but both are even better when Emerson's velocity is up. Fans were hopeful this spring, but he didn't have a great spring. Since he is starter #6 on the Mariners' depth chart, we'll undoubtedly see him for a handful of starts this season.

#2 Julio Rodriguez

After a few weeks in camp, Julio looks ready to roll for 2024. He's a top 5 player in the American League, a total stud who will have ample opportunities to win an MVP. Many scouts originally thought Julio would get pushed to right field, but he's defied those projections and now plays solid defense in CF. It's hard to imagine a 4th place MVP finish being a down season for anyone, but somehow it felt like things didn't go Julio's way last year. He hit 32 home runs last season, but I wouldn't be shocked if he flirted with 40. There were several important at-bats last season where we saw Julio swing out of his shoes and slider and curveballs out of the zone, look for him to improve in that area.

#1 Jarred Kelenic

As we all know, Kelenic was included in the Even White/ Marco salary dump deal with Atlanta. Kelenic's spring hasn't gone well, and the Braves just picked up Adam Duvall to platoon with him now. Kelenic was projected to be a star, even as recently as 2021, but that ship may have sailed. I still think Kelenic has some positive indicators, but they lead more to him being a two or three win guy than an MVP candidate. While Jarred has some makeup concerns, the 30.7% career K rate is certainly cause for concern. I'm rooting for him to figure it out, but he'll need 60 grade power to be an everyday corner outfielder in the MLB.

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