3 Potentially Overvalued Free Agents for the Mariners to Avoid This Offseason

Free Agents Mariners should be wary of... #1: Cody Bellinger

After struggling immensely in his last two years with the Dodgers which saw him post a .611 OPS (66 OPS+) over 900 plate appearances, Bellinger signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs in hopes that a change of scenery would help him rediscover what made him so great at the plate. The experiment seemed to work, with Bellinger slashing .307/.356/.525 over 556 plate appearances for the third-best OPS+ of his career, behind just his MVP and ROTY seasons.

With this incredible resurgence, MLBTradeRumors is projecting him to sign a whopping 12-year, $264 million deal. At just 28 years old, this might make an important long-term piece for any franchise willing and able to cough up the cash. However, there are a few key considerations to keep in mind, especially when looking at a contract of that length.

First, it's no secret that Cody Bellinger has dealt with his fair share of injuries over the past few years, missing times for issues varying from his calf, hamstring, and most recently his knees in 2023. This issue is far more likely to get worse than it is to get better and a 12-year deal might result in six years of productive play and six years bouncing back-and-forth from the IL.

Second, his Savant page shows a sizable discrepancy between his expected and actual stats. His expected batting average of .268 was still above the league average but a far cry from the .307 he actually posted. Similarly, his expected slugging of just .434 was significantly lower than his actual slugging mark of .525. Most concerning was his average exit velocity which stood at just 87.9 mph, placing him in just the 22nd percentile amongst qualified hitters. It was even lower than the exit velocities of his past two seasons in Los Angeles which hovered around 89.0 mph.

Furthermore, his walk rate hasn't improved much either and although he significantly cut down on the strikeouts, it seems he's compensated by swinging more often and making weaker contact. His barrel rate of 6.1% is the lowest it's been in his career thus far.

There are signs of a possible return to form for Cody Bellinger, one that would see him eclipse the 1.000 OPS mark yet again and be a perennial MVP contender like the days of old. However, based on his most recent season with the Cubs, it's important to realize the surface-level statistics may be glossing over some lingering weaknesses. Even if Mariners fans do want him here.

Free Agents Mariners should be wary of... #2: Eduardo Rodriguez

The Detroit Tigers surprised all but a few people by actually competing as a professional baseball team in 2023, taking second place in the AL Central. Leading the charge was a crafty lefty named Eduardo Rodriguez who posted a 2.64 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in the first half of the season before being sidelined with injury. He failed to continue his strong outings after returning from the IL but still managed to end up with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 152 ⅔ innings.

Along with recent World Series hero Jordan Montgomery, Rodriguez is one of the most skilled lefties available on the market right now with MLBTradeRumors projecting him to net a contract in the realm of four years, $82 million. With the current cost premium of plus starting pitching, that doesn't actually seem too bad but given his actual peripheral stats, it still might be an overpay.

Like Montgomery, Rodriguez doesn't quite have blow-your-doors-off velocity, averaging 92.2 mph on his four-seam fastball and 88.8 mph on his cutter. While this is by no means a requirement to be successful as a pitcher (hey, remember that Jamie Moyer guy?), Rodriguez doesn't really excel in other areas enough to compensate. Pretty much all of his stats are right around league-average with his best feature being his walk rate at 7.7% (61st percentile).

All of this led him to post an xERA of 4.04, significantly higher than his actual ERA of 3.30. His FIP of 3.66 was actually quite good but hides the relative weakness of his four-seam fastball. Despite it being his primary weapon and having a run value of 7 in 2023, the batting average against was .278. In comparison, opposing batters averaged just .165 against Luis Castillo's four-seam fastball this season.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher. He may even be a great pitcher. But is he necessarily worth the estimated $80-90 million and $20 million AAV? Probably not. If he had competed in any division other than the worst in baseball this past season, chances are his stats would've been quite a bit worse. If he were to be shipped to a team in the AL or NL East, don't be surprised to see significant regression across the board.

Free Agents Mariners should be wary of... #3: Matt Chapman

To demonstrate how thin this year's position player free agent market is, one of the most sought-after pieces is currently Matt Chapman, a player who slashed .240/.330/.424 over 581 plate appearances for an OPS+ of 108. He did have some great moments and to be fair, his first-half OPS of .807 was quite good.

Additionally, he seems to have immense offensive upside as one of the hardest hitters in baseball. He ranked in the top 2% of qualified hitters for average exit velocity (93.4 mph), barrel rate (17.1%), and hard-hit rate (56.4%). He is also one of the better defenders in the hot corner, posting four outs above average and 12 defensive runs saved.

However, a second-half OPS of .663 over 212 plate appearances is enough to question whether he's worth the six-year, $150 million contract MLBTradeRumors is projecting he'll receive. Despite hitting the ball mighty hard, he failed to find the correct launch angle often enough to complement his raw power. Sweet spot rate calculates how often a ball is hit at an optimal launch angle and Chapman's was just 32.4%, placing him in the 28th percentile. This, combined with a strikeout rate of 28.4% combined to bring his xBA down to .230, worse than 84% of the league.

Chapman is a good player but is he worth a $25 million AAV contract? Is he on par with names like Marcus Semien (122 OPS+, 7.4 rWAR), Bryce Harper (146 OPS+, 3.7 rWAR), or Fernando Tatis Jr. (113 OPS+, 5.5 rWAR), who will all be earning roughly the same amount over their current contracts? Probably not. Be cautious, Mariners.