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3 Mariners I am higher on than most, 1 that I am lower on than most
With a flurry of moves made this offseason, and no real stars added, we take a look at a few players I am high on, and 1 I think we need to temper expectations.
Coming into this offseason, the rosters seemed relatively complete. They had one of the best rotations in baseball and finished just one game back of the final wild card spot. They opted not to extend the qualifying offer to Teoscar Hernandez, leaving a hole in right field. This really only left a need in right field, an everyday DH and either a full time second baseman to push Rojas to the bench, or a platoon option for Rojas.
After the Mariners acquired Luis Urias, it seemed like he would platoon with Rojas. That's one need marked off. Now they just needed a right fielder and a DH. They were rumored to be in on Cody Bellinger, Jorge Soler, Mitch Garver, and a few other names that seemed like solid additions. Then a very surprising move happened where the Mariners traded fan favorite, Geno Suarez to the Diamondbacks in nothing more than a salary dump. This put so much confusion into Mariners fan's heads and left us wondering what they were going to do.
Fast forward to now and the roster looks a lot deeper (I know a lot of fans will argue that the roster isn't as good), and sure, you can make the argument that the loss of Teo and Geno are huge, but there is no denying that this team is a deeper unit than last year's team. This team does have some uncertainty but I wanted to touch on a few players that I am higher on than most people and why. I also wanted to go over a player that I feel we might need to temper expectations for.
Luis Urias will put up a higher fWAR than Geno this year
I have gone back and forth on Urias all offseason. I thought he could be a good player but would be better suited for a platoon or a super utility role. I am now in the camp that Urias has a very solid chance to post a higher wRC+ and fWAR than Eugenio Suarez will this year.
Urias came up as a top prospect, peaking at number 23 overall in MLB Pipelines top 100 prospects of 2019. He was traded to the Brewers in 2019 as part of the deal that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davis to San Diego. He got a cup of coffee in 2020, but really broke out in 2021, putting up a 112 wRC+ and a 2.1 fWAR with 23 home runs. He followed it up with another 2.3 fWAR season and a 110 wRC+. He fits the control the zone model Dipoto loves with a career 10.5% walk rate and a 21.6% strikeout rate.
Urias' was only 26 years old in 2023 and it was full of injuries, only playing in 52 games. It's so hard to just write Urias off as a bad player after two seasons as an above average player. In 2024, Urias could very well get back to his 2021 and 2022 seasons, but if he is around a two-win player and puts up an above average wRC+, that will exceed a lot of people's expectations. I am going bolder and predicting a 2.5-win player with a 115 wRC+ with 15 home runs.
Mariners fix Carlos Vargas' walk issues, giving them another high leverage option
A lot of fans might not be too excited about Vargas, he was acquired in the trade that sent Geno to Arizona. This trade cost the Mariners an everyday third baseman and showed that ownership wasn't going to commit a very big increase in salary, if any, for the 2024 team.
With the loss of Paul Sewald, the Mariners had an obvious need for a high-leverage arm this offseason. They have acquired a few solid depth arms that we hope will break out and become the Paul Sewald, Justin Topa type of bullpen arm the Mariners have shown they can find. Carlos Vargas is going to be that arm for the Mariners in 2024.
Vargas arm talent is elite! He threw just 33 fastballs in 2023, but his average velocity was 99.4 mph. He also has what is being called a cutter by baseball savant, but I think it is more of a slider. He threw that pitch 30 times, averaging 91.7 mph and an insane 46.2 whiff rate. The issue that Mariners need to solve is his control. In 2023 at AAA for the Diamondbacks, he had a 6.8 BB/9 and in just 4.2 innings in the major leagues he issued four walks. The Mariners will fix his walk issues this season (he won't post a sub two BB/9, but he doesn't need to) and he will be somewhere in the four BB/9, while posting a K/9 over 10. Vargas will work his way into the number three or four role as next high leverage option for Scott Servais.
Dominic Canzone breaks out big time
The hate I see for Canzone is unreal. It doesn't help that he was part of the deal that sent fan favorite, Paul Sewald, to the Diamondbacks. He will always be tied to that. But this year he could really prove to have been a steal as an additional piece in that trade.
Canzone was an eighth-round draft pick by the Diamondbacks out of Ohio State University and he wasted no time flexing his potential. Canzone has hit at every single level he has played at. In 2022 he really showed above average potential with a .299/.367/.541 slash line and 22 home runs over 106 games, making his way up to Triple-A. He built off of that impressive season by slashing .354/.431/.634 with 16 home runs over 71 games in Triple-A.
Someone like that just doesn't forget to hit, even if it is at the major league level. He might not be a 300 hitter, but this year (especially with the injury-riddled Haniger as his platoon mate) Canzone should see at least 400 plate appearances and he will slash around .250/.310/.430 with 20+ home runs while putting up at least two or three more elite level bat flips.
Mitch Haniger's injury history will continue
Let me start by saying, it pains me to put Mitch on this list. He was the heart and soul of the team for a few years before the team was able to break the playoff drought. You could tell he poured everything he had into this team.
Now, I just don't see a way that Haniger can stay healthy enough to get to the level of production that a lot of people and outlets have him at. For example, Steamer projects he will play in 126 games, and there is just such a small chance that he can stay healthy for that much of it.
I am confident if you guaranteed Haniger played in 120-130 games that he would be a 20+ home run guy and put up a 110 wRC+ doing it. The Mariners should see what Haniger gives them this year as a complete bonus, because if he is healthy for even just 75 games, he will be a very valuable bat (the Mariners should do everything in their power to keep him healthy). Haniger will top last year's games played of 61, but I don't see him getting over 70 games played. Maybe that is enough to be a solid 4th outfielder, but that leaves a lot of at-bats for the taking (Canzone breakout coming).