2024 Mariners Offseason Plan: The Ohtani Hail Mary

Step 1: Trade for Lars Nootbaar

Proposed deal: Seattle receives Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals receive Bryce Miller 

If you want to catch a big fish, you're gonna need some nice bait…hello Lars Nootbar. If you're going to trade away a valuable piece like Miller from an area of great strength, then you need to make sure you're getting better on offense, and I think Nootbaar can be the upgrade Seattle needs. While some mid tier prospects may be involved in this deal, the meat of the deal is Miller for Nootbaar.

While he has one of the coolest names in baseball, you may not be familiar with Nootbar's game. Lars is a 26 years old versatile outfielder that in his first three seasons has been a good to very good bat.

In 2023, Nootbaar posted a 3.3 WAR, slashing .261/.367/.418, good for a 115 OPS+. When you talk about why the 2023 Seattle Mariners failed, it doesn't take long to point to insane strikeout numbers by Mariners hitters, specifically Teoscar Hernandez. We're going to let him walk, with no qualifying offer, and look to replace him with about the most opposite player possible.

Nootbaar is a plus defender in the corners, and can hold up for an extended period of time in center field. While he may not have the arm that Teo is gifted with, Nootbaar himself has an above average arm. As a hitter. Nootbaar will likely never threaten more than 20 home runs a season, but he's an ideal "Control the Zone" addition. Nootbaar had a 19.6% K rate in 2023, which is better than average. When you compare it to Teo's 31.1% K rate, we're talking about a massive difference in philosophy. Add in Nootbaar posting a 14.3% walk rate in 2023 (95% percentile in baseball), and the Mariners could be making a massive OBP boost to their lineup, sacrificing just a little bit of power on the surface.

While Nootbaar would be a strong addition to the Mariners, there's more value to this deal. There's a friendship between Nootbaar and Shohei Ohtani. Nootbaar joined Team Japan in this spring's World Baseball Classic, and became both an instant star in Japan and friends with Ohtani. 

When talking about his time with Ohtani and Japan, Nootbaar said this summer, “Going over there and having him accept me, obviously his word means a lot so the fact that he embraced me, I think, helped me and I think helped help the team, honestly”

While one friend isn't going to swing Ohtani's decision, it can't hurt to create an environment where Ohtani feels comfortable. His comfort visiting Seattle, and his friendships with Ichiro Suzuki and Lars Nootbaar can only help in the recruiting process.

Step 2: Sign OF Adam Duvall (1yr/$7mil)

If Seattle is going to run an outfield with Jarred Kelenic and Lars Nootbaar, I'd like to look for a veteran right handed bat that could provide a little pop off the bench, while being a safety hedge in case Kelenic struggles. Where AJ Pollock looked shot in 2023, I believe Adam Duvall will succeed.

Duvall, a former all-star and World Series hero for the Atlanta Braves in 2021, had an incredible start last year for the Boston Red Sox, before a wrist injury impaired him for the rest of the season. Nethertheless, Duvall still put up 1.5 WAR season and a 119 OPS+. He has experience playing in all three outfield spots, as well as 1st base earlier in his career. With an 85th percentile in barrel percentage, I'd love to see him not just as a super utility player, but a guy that will have no problem pushing the likes of Kelenic and Ty France for playing time.

Step 3: Resign C Tom Murphy (1yr/$6mil)

If Tom Murphy could just stay healthy, he could be looking at a massive payday in 2025. In the past two seasons, Murphy has played in only 61 games. In those 61 games, Murphy has a .292 average 14 doubles and 9 home runs with an OPS+ around 150. Those numbers put even J.T. Realmuto to shame.

Unfortunately, Tom has shown he can't stay healthy, even as the backup catcher/lefty mashing bench slugger. There's a chance a team will take a shot on him to be a more stable piece of their backstop situation, but if not, I want to keep giving Murphy chances to help this team.

Step 4: Sign SP Jack Flaherty (1yr/$10mil)

In 2019, Jack Flaherty was 23, had just finished a top 5 voting Cy Young season, and carried the St. Louis Cardinals to the NLCS. He was arguably the best rising arm in baseball. Since then, 3 straight seasons with injuries have destroyed his trajectory towards greatness.

Finally healthy in 2023, Flaherty looked more like a #4 or #5 starter than the former ace he was. In 29 starts, Flaherty posted a 4.99 ERA and a 98 ERA+ in St. Louis before a deadline trade to Baltimore went catastrophic and tanked his season. So, if things have been so dark since 2019, why would I want Seattle to sign him?

That answer is three-fold for me. First, I believe he is healthy now. As we've seen from almost every pitcher coming off of shoulder injuries, it takes time to heal and rebuild the strength and ability that was once there. Second, he'd be leaving St. Louis. No disrespect to the Cardinals or anyone on their medical team, but sometimes you just have to get away from a place with so many negative experiences. Getting traded to Baltimore, and being forced to pitch playoff caliber games in that tiny ballpark was a recipe for disaster. And finally, Flaherty can escape back to the West Coast where he's from, and be reborn in the Seattle Mariners pitching philosophy. 

If anyone can fix Flaherty, I believe it's the Seattle Mariners. With the trading away of Bryce Miller, the Mariners will need a starter to come in and eat innings until Robbie Ray or Marco Gonzalez is healthy. It's a perfect marriage for both sides, as Flaherty will look to rebuild his value. 

Step 5: Sign the Unicorn (12yr/$564mil/$47AAV)

The Pitch

With the stage set, and the pieces in place, we're ready to not just have a seat at the table with Shohei Ohtani, but we're prepared to not leave without him. In this scenario where we get a meeting, I'm pulling out all the stops. We're bringing Ichiro, Nootbaar, Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, Jeff Bezos and Eddie Vedder! We'll even have John Stanton pull the Pat Riley move and drop a bag full of championship rings on the table. Shohei will ask, "Where are the rings?" And Stanton will reply, "Exactly! Please come to Seattle!"

In all seriousness, this is going to be about comfortability, environment, winning potential, and cash. We know that Seattle is a place where Ohtani feels comfortable, so that's already a nice head start. The environment and culture around the Mariners? That's a pretty divisive question depending on who you ask. Getting out in front of free agency and bringing in a guy like Nootbaar to help create a positive culture, one that Ohtani has experienced, could be helpful. I would expect this to be one of the bigger concerns for Ohtani. 

When it comes to winning potential, despite being in the AL West, you make a strong argument that the Mariners have one of the 5-6 brightest futures in baseball. A young, talented stable of pitchers that allow Ohtani to come back and pitch on his time, with a 6 man rotation becoming the norm (common in Japan). They have a young budding star in Julio Rodriguez and young talented top tier players at their positions in JP Crawford and Cal Raleigh. This would unquestionably be the best team Ohtani has ever been on.

The Offer and Potential 

Lastly, and maybe most importantly, is the money. To bring Ohtani to Seattle, the Mariners will need to bend the knee and be as accommodating as possible. A 12 year $564 million dollar deal for Ohtani is pretty dang close to the max that he could realistically expect. 

On top of this deal, we're prepared to give Ohtani an opt out after year 2, 3, 6 and 9. Along with the opt outs, we're prepared to front load the contract, allowing Ohtani to make anywhere from $50-55 million in AAV during the first 3 years of the deal. While this setup is pretty uncommon, and will likely leave Seattle in a constant state of worrying about Ohtani leaving, this is an uncommon man.

With this deal, Ohtani would sign the largest deal in MLB history. He would have full control over the path of his career, and could use that to his advantage. We're talking about a LeBron James-esque level of control. This is what you need to do, if you want the most talented player ever and the most important player since Jackie Robinson to represent your ball club.

Projected Rotation and Lineup 

Rotation

Luis Castillo

George Kirby

Logan Gilbert

Jack Flaherty

Bryan Woo

Returning

Robbie Ray (midsummer)

Marco Gonzalez (midsummer)

Shohei Ohtani (2025)

Lineup

1 JP Crawford SS

2 Shohei Ohtani DH

3 Julio Rodriguez CF

4 Cal Raleigh C

5 Geno Suarez 3B

6 Lars Nootbaar RF

7 Ty France 1B

8 Jarred Kelenic LF

9 Josh Rojas 2B

Bench

Tom Murphy

Adam Duvall

Dylan Moore/Ryan Bliss

Dom Canzone 

It's a sizable pill to swallow for John Stanton, but if you do, your team will become the center of the baseball universe, and for more than just a weekend in July. The Mariners would have the best player in the game paired with the biggest rising star and arguably most marketable player in Julio Rodriguez. Seattle would become the most fun team to watch, in a division with the previous two World Series champs. 

You can't ask for much more than that. Oh yeah, you're probably the betting favorite to win the American League for the next few years, that too.

Let's shock the world.

Go M's.